10 Big Elections in Q1 of 2026 đłď¸đď¸
A look at the significant elections happening during the first three months of 2026
đş Whatâs on tap đ°
Todayâs newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: We run through 10 major elections happening in the first three months of 2026.
Blake Burman on Prediction Markets: Blake Burman, Chief Washington Correspondent for NewsNation, runs a Substack where he tracks political prediction markets. This week, he looks at Secretary of State Marco Rubioâs chances of being the Republican presidential nominee in 2028, whether the Supreme Court will rule on President Trumpâs tariffs, and whether credit card rates will be capped this year.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections weâre tracking at DDHQ.
đ Opening Bell đ
Must-read items about elections and politics.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump publicly encouraged Republican Rep. Julia Letlow to mount a campaign for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, where incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy is seeking reelection. Trump pre-endorsed Letlow and urged her to jump into the race. Following Trumpâs statement, Letlow did not officially announce a Senate bid, but Politico reported on Sunday that she is likely to enter the race shortly, perhaps as soon as later today (Monday, Jan. 19). Cassidy, who voted to convict Trump in the presidentâs 2021 impeachment trial, had worked to regain Trumpâs backing or at least keep the president from endorsing a primary opponent â including by supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trumpâs controversial pick to lead the Department of Health and Human Services
Last week, Virginia Democrats in both chambers of the state legislature passed a constitutional amendment to open the door to a Democratic congressional gerrymander. The amendment temporarily shifts control of congressional redistricting from the stateâs bipartisan commission to the state legislature. Part of the ongoing national redistricting conflict, this development sets the stage for a special election in April for voters to ratify or reject the amendment. Should the amendment succeed, the Democratic-controlled state legislature would then pass a new congressional map that would all but guarantee gains for Democrats, who currently hold six of the stateâs 11 seats. It seems likely that newly-elected Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger would then sign off on a Democratic-drawn gerrymander.
Please subscribe to our Polling Memo! The weekly writeup, which will now come out on Tuesdays, features key trends based on DDHQâs polling averages. If youâre already a subscriber to The Bellwether, you can receive the memo in your inbox by clicking on your account settings and opt to receive the Poll Memo (see the image below).
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đ The Frontrunner đĽ
10 high-profile elections happening in the first quarter of 2026
Quick summary:
In the first three months of 2026, five states will hold their regular primaries, while primaries or general elections will take place in three congressional special elections.
The two biggest states with elections in this period â Texas and Illinois â have most of the most high-profile contests, including primaries for U.S. Senate in both states.
While itâs easy to focus on the potential consequences of the 2026 midterms, a bunch of votes will take place well before we get to the regular November general election. In the first three months of 2026 alone, five states will hold their regular primaries and one will also hold its primary runoff elections (Arkansas). Additionally, three congressional districts will hold special general or primary elections as part of filling vacancies brought about by resignation or death. Nomination races, intraparty battles, and interesting candidates abound in these contests â some with major national implications.
To help our readers get ready for Q1 of the 2026 election year, we will run through 10 elections to watch in this window. These all happen to be U.S. Senate or U.S. House races, but future previews for later periods of the election cycle will definitely include other types of races. Without further adieu, letâs begin!
Jan. 31, 2026
Texas: 18th District special election runoff
On the last day of January, voters in Texasâs 18th District will go to the polls to fill the vacancy left behind by the death of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner last March. Considering Texas just redistricted its congressional map, itâs important to emphasize that this election is for the current 18th District and not the new one that will be used in the November 2026 midterms.
The special election is a head-to-head contest between two Democrats, former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards. Under Texasâs special election rules, an initial election took place in November that featured all candidates regardless of party. As no contender won a majority, Menefee and Edwards advanced to a runoff as the top-two vote getters from the field of 16 candidates.
The runoffâs outcome is uncertain, but so is the eventual winnerâs political future. Ahead of the March primary for the regular 2026 election, both Menefee and Edwards both filed in the new 18th District. However, Democratic Rep. Al Green is also running there after redistricting put much of his current seat in the new 18th. Greenâs long track record may make him the favorite in the Democratic primary for the new seat, although Menefee released a poll conducted for his campaign in late December that found him ahead of both Green and Edwards.
Feb. 5, 2026
New Jersey: 11th District special election primary
Just days after Texasâs 18th District elects a new representative, voters in New Jerseyâs 11th District will likely choose the successor to former Rep. Mikie Sherrill, now the Garden Stateâs governor. While the special general election for this seat will take place on April 16, the blue-leaning constituency â President Donald Trump lost it 53%-45% in 2024 â will probably vote for whomever Democrats nominate in their Feb. 5 primary.
A whopping 14 candidates filed for the Democratic primary in this North Jersey seat, of whom 11 are still active (all filed candidatesâ names will be on the ballot). Of those, former Rep. Tom Malinowski and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill appear most likely to win. However, we should not entirely discount three other candidates: Lt. Gov. Tahesha Way; Passaic County Commissioner John Bartlett; and Analilia MejĂa, the former political director of Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign who also sports an endorsement from progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Malinowski looks to be the best-funded contender: His campaign announced earlier this month that it had raised more than $1 million. He is using that money to run ads promising to defend democracy and fight Trumpâs corruption. He also enjoys Democratic Sen. Andy Kimâs endorsement. However, Malinowski only represented about 5% of the population in the current 11th District in his old 7th District from 2019 to 2023.
Gill appears most likely to compete with Malinowski. While he has not announced his fundraising totals, Gill has the money to run anti-Malinowski ads highlighting stock trades Malinowski made during his time in Congress that prompted an ethics investigation. Gill also hails from Essex County, which has more registered Democrats in the 11th District than Morris or Passaic counties. For good measure, he has Democratic Gov. Phil Murphyâs endorsement.
The Democratic primary winner will face Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the only Republican to file for the special election. But considering the easy victory Sherrill just enjoyed in New Jersey, itâs hard to imagine her old blue-leaning turf backing a Republican right now.
March 3, 2026
North Carolina: 1st District primary
Democratic Rep. Don Davis is one of the most endangered Democrats in the House. Following mid-decade redistricting, the 1st District in eastern North Carolina is now a seat that Trump would have carried by nearly 12 percentage points in 2024, up from Trump +3 under the old lines. Understandably then, the Republican primary contest to face Davis is one to watch on March 3.
The GOP primary had some last-minute drama before the Dec. 19 candidate filing deadline. About a week out, Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson announced his withdrawal, removing a candidate who had loaned his campaign $3 million. But then retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout jumped into the Republican nomination race. Buckhout is a familiar name: Under the 1st Districtâs old lines, she lost to Davis by about 2 points in the 2024 general election.
Buckhoutâs last-minute entry upset at least one other notable candidate in the race. Republican state Sen. Bobby Hanig argued Buckhout had âdecided to go back on her wordâ to run for the GOP nomination after having said in May 2025 that she would not run due to health concerns. Hanig also claimed that Buckhout had asked him to step aside and become her chief of staff, which Buckhout denied. Trump has not endorsed in this primary, though he endorsed Buckhout in the 2024 general election.
Under North Carolinaâs primary rules, the leading candidate need only clear 30% of the vote to avoid a runoff. But with five candidates campaigning, including Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell, a runoff is theoretically possible.
Texas: U.S. Senate primary
They say everything is bigger in Texas. And when it comes to the first three months of elections in 2026, itâs true: Texasâs Democratic and Republican nomination races for U.S. Senate are definitely the top-drawer events on the calendar. The three-way GOP primary could go to a runoff if no candidate wins an outright majority, while the Democratic primary is largely a head-to-head clash between rising stars.
In the Republican primary, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt, along with five other minor candidates. The contest has largely been defined by the campaign spending of Cornyn and his allies. In early January, an analysis from AdImpact found that ads supporting Cornyn made up 75% of all ad spending in the Texas race â more than $44 million in total. Early spending by pro-Cornyn forces did appear to successfully ding Paxton last summer, when Paxtonâs lead shrank in head-to-head polling against Cornyn. But Huntâs entry into the race in October further scrambled this contest.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOPâs main super PAC for Senate race, have gone all in to assist Cornyn. Thatâs partly because many Republicans fear that a nomination victory for Paxton, bearer of many professional and personal scandals, would give Democrats a better shot at flipping the Texas seat. Yet their worst nightmare is in play: Spend $100 million or so to help Cornyn, only for Paxton (or Hunt) to win the nomination.
Hunt, for his part, is trying to position himself as a more palatable candidate than Paxton, but a fresher face than Cornyn that also happens to be more conservative. The congressman sits in third in Decision Desk HQâs polling average with around 20%, but neither Paxton nor Cornyn is polling north of 40%, making a runoff quite likely â especially because Trump is not inclined to endorse and potentially push voters toward one candidate.
Across the aisle, U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett faces state Rep. James Talarico in a contest between up-and-coming Democrats. In her second term, Crockett has gained national notoriety for her combative style and social media presence, all of which has helped make her a fundraising dynamo. Talarico has garnered notice as a scripture-quoting Democrat, making himself a figure of the religious left â all while building his own ample social media following.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, but the party is hoping that a bad midterm environment for Republicans â and Paxton winning the GOP nod â could create a pickup opportunity. Already, Democrats are having 2020-style conversations about âelectability,â as Talaricoâs theory of the case involves making some inroads in red territory, while Crockett argues that she can expand the electorate to help Democratsâ chances of winning. Potential issues of race and gender are also intertwined with the electability discussion, as Crockett is a Black woman and Talarico is a white man.
In the primary campaign, Talarico has gotten the jump on Crockett when it comes to ad spending. That might help explain Talaricoâs 47%-38 edge in an Emerson College/Nexstar Media survey released last week. Still, the only other poll for the primary conducted since Crockett got in the race was a December survey from Texas Southern University that found her ahead 51%-43%.
Texas: 33rd District primary
Until just before the candidate filing deadline, former Rep. Colin Allred had been running in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. But with Crockett set to announce a bid, Allred withdrew and announced instead that he would run in the newly-drawn, solidly blue 33rd District in and around Dallas. However, that put Allred in conflict with Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson, who is also running in the 33rd. This is a fascinating matchup in part because Johnson succeeded Allred in the House (in the outgoing 32nd District) when Allred ran for Senate in 2024.
The race has already featured some sharp words. Johnson castigated Allred for his last-minute switcheroo, and LGBTQ groups also criticized the decision (Johnson is the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from Texas). Allred has attacked Johnson for accepting money from corporate PACs, while Johnson has hit Allred for supporting more conservative immigration legislation when he was in Congress.
As for who has the upper hand, itâs hard to know at this point. We havenât yet seen their end-of-year fundraising numbers, but Allred had more than twice as much money in the bank as Johnson at the end of September.
Texas: 23rd District primary
In the 2024 election cycle, two House Republicans lost renomination. But Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales was nearly the third: Forced into a primary runoff against gun rights activist and YouTuber Brandon Herrera, Gonzales just eked out renomination, 50.6%-49.4%, before easily winning reelection that November. Gonzales was vulnerable to a challenge from his right in part because he supported bipartisan gun safety legislation following the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas â which sits in Gonzalesâs 23rd District.
But in March, Gonzales will take on Herrera in a GOP primary rematch. Helpfully for Gonzales, Trump endorsed him in December, which could shore up the incumbentâs support among some Republicans who opposed him in 2024. At the same time, Gonzales will not enjoy a cakewalk. In late November, Herrera announced that his candidate committee and related political action committees had raised $1.1 million, giving him serious resources to take on Gonzales. Another complication for Gonzales is the campaign of former Rep. Quico Canseco, who represented a previous version of this seat and serves on the state GOPâs executive committee. At the very least, Cansecoâs candidacy could attract enough support to push Gonzales into a runoff.
Lastly, Gonzales may continue to face scrutiny over the death of a staffer last September. Some media outlets reported that she had died from self-immolation following an extramarital affair with Gonzales. While Gonzales denied rumors of an affair as âcompletely untruthful,â Herrera has used the allegation against the incumbent on the campaign trail.
Texas: 34th District primary
When Texas Republicans redistricted the stateâs congressional map last year, one of their principal targets was Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez. The new map made Gonzalesâ red-leaning 34th District in South Texas even redder, shifting its 2024 presidential vote from Trump +4 to Trump +10. Now, Gonzalez could hold on thanks in part to a favorable midterm environment for Democrats. Yet eight Republicans entered the race to face him, most notably former Rep. Mayra Flores and Army veteran Eric Flores (the two are not related).
The Flores-on-Flores contest features a familiar face. Elected in a 2022 special election in the 34th District used in general elections from 2012 to 2020, Mayra Flores then lost back-to-back general elections to Gonzalez in the 34th District used in the 2022 and 2024 general elections â losing by fewer than 3 points the second time around. After the latest redraw, she decided to challenge Gonzalez again in 2026.
However, Eric Flores may have the upper hand in the GOP nomination race. In December, Trump endorsed him, much to the chagrin of the former congresswoman. In a sign of potential consolidation behind Trumpâs endorsee, two other Republican contenders in the 34th District withdrew from the race.
Still, with eight names on the primary ballot, an all-Flores runoff could be in the cards here. And it would be unwise to write off ex-Rep. Flores because she didnât get Trumpâs backing. She has challenged Eric Floresâs conservative bona fides, attacking him for having served as an attorney in the Department of Justice during the Biden administration (though he was not a political appointee). She has also tried to cast him as a âRINOâ (Republican in name only) by connecting him to the misdeeds of his father, former Democratic state Rep. Kino Flores, who was found guilty in 2010 of record tampering and perjury.
March 10, 2026
Georgia: 14th District special election blanket primary
When Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene unexpectedly announced that she would resign from Congress in early January, she fired the starting gun on a special election campaign for Georgiaâs dark red 14th District. Remarkably, 22 candidates have made the ballot for the March 10 contest, which will be a blanket primary race involving all candidates regardless of party. Unless one candidate wins a majority that day â an unlikely outcome with so many contenders â a runoff between the two leading vote-getters will occur on April 7.
Most attention is understandably focused on the 17 Republicans who are running. One of the most prominent contenders is now-former state Sen. Colton Moore, who resigned on Jan. 13 to run in the congressional special election. In 2023, state Senate Republicans kicked Moore out of the party caucus for making false statements and violating caucus rules. In early 2025, Moore again made headlines when he was arrested while attempting to enter the state House of Representatives despite having been banned from the chamber in 2024.
Moore is far from the only noteworthy Republican contender, though. Lookout Mountain District Attorney Clay Fuller is running after finishing a distant fourth in the 2020 GOP primary for this seat. Two other current or former elected officials â Dalton City Councilman Nicky Lama and former Paulding County Commissioner Brian Stover â are in the mix, as are former Greene aide Jim Tully and former Fulton County GOP chair Trey Kelly.
Considering Trump carried this seat 68%-31% in 2024, two Republican candidates could attract enough votes to advance to the likely runoff. However, the more likely outcome may be that one Democrat and one Republican move forward. Thatâs because the larger Republican vote will be spread across a multitude of GOP candidates, while the smaller Democratic vote may mostly line up behind retired Army Brig. Gen. Shawn Harris, who was his partyâs nominee versus Greene in the districtâs 2024 race.
March 17, 2026
Illinois: U.S. Senate primary
Longtime Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin announced his retirement in April 2025, opening up a much-desired spot in the U.S. Senate. And in fairly blue Illinois, that has made for a competitive â and expensive â Democratic primary race. The principal three contenders for the partyâs nod are Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Reps. Robin Kelly and Raja Krishnamoorthi.
Right now, this race looks to be Krishnamoorthiâs to lose. First elected to the House in 2016, Krishnamoorthi built a massive war chest â he had $19 million when he announced in May 2025 â to boost his chances in a statewide bid. That has enabled him to gain an overwhelming edge in primary campaign advertising: As of mid-January, AdImpact reported that he had spent or reserved $21.7 million in ads, about 97% of ad buys in the primary. Tellingly, a recent Emerson College/WGN-TV survey of the Democratic primary found Krishnamoorthi at 31%, well ahead of Stratton (10%) and Kelly (8%), though with nearly half of respondents undecided. Similarly, a new poll on behalf of Krishnamoorthiâs campaign found him earning 41%, while Stratton and Kelly were in the mid-teens.
That said, we shouldnât write off Stratton or Kelly just yet. Stratton has the backing of Gov. JB Pritzker, a billionaire with ample resources and connections that could come to Strattonâs aid in the roughly two months before the vote. The first wave of support may be a new $460,000 ad buy from Illinois Future PAC, a pro-Stratton super PAC with ties to Pritzker. Kelly, meanwhile, may attract ample attention in the coming weeks for introducing articles of impeachment against Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. That department oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which has come under ever-increasing scrutiny, most recently following the shooting death of a protester in Minneapolis by an ICE agent.
This race will mostly be decided by voters in Chicagoland â Chicagoâs metropolitan area will cast around 4 in 5 votes in the Democratic primary. All three major contenders hail from the region, too. Krishnamoorthi represents turf centered in the Cook County suburbs, while Kellyâs district includes parts of Chicagoâs South Side and the suburbs in southern Cook. Before becoming lieutenant governor, Stratton represented a state House seat in South Side.
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Still, the candidates will not ignore the rest of the state. Should Krishnamoorthi maintain his massive advertising edge, he may be the candidate whom Downstate voters mainly hear from, which could help him win over a substantial chunk of the roughly 1 in 5 votes that will be cast outside of Chicagoland.
Illinois: 9th District primary
Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky announced her retirement in early May 2025, opening up a dark-blue seat stretching north from Chicagoâs North Side, through Evanston, and up into the northern suburbs of Chicagoland. With a Democratic win all but assured in November, a huge field of 16 Democrats has piled into this open-seat race hoping to win the partyâs nomination.
If thereâs a frontrunner in this primary, itâs probably Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss. He has notable electoral experience, having finished second in the 2018 Democratic primary for governor with 27%, losing to Pritzker. He has a bevy of notable endorsements, including support from the retiring Schakowsky and the Congressional Progressive Caucus. And he had raised $1.3 million as of the end of September, second-most in the primary field.
Still, Biss is far from a lock to win. Twenty-six year old progressive political content creator Kat Abughazaleh has raised $1.5 million and has attracted significant attention via her large internet presence, though she lacks strong local ties. Also in the young progressive lane is Bushra Amiwala, a school board member from Skokie, who has raised $642,000. State Sen. Laura Fine, who represents the Evanston area, has raised $661,000, some of which comes from donors with ties to AIPAC. Former FBI Agent Phil Andrew and state Sen. Mike Simmons are also in the race.
đ˘ No Red Or Blue, Just Green đ
Blake Burman on prediction markets:
đ Rubio Rising
As President Trump was being sworn into office last January, markets already were pricing in Vice President JD Vance as the clear leader to carry the MAGA mantle into 2028. Look at where Iâve put my cursor on the left hand side and youâll see that Vance was running a roughly 44% chance of being the Republican nominee next go-around:
But look at where it stands now. While Vance has ticked up to roughly 50%, check out whatâs happened with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Heâs made a much bigger jump from Inauguration Day until now, as heâs up to 17%, more than tripling his probability.
Rubio has consistently been at the presidentâs side, as Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Russia/Ukraine, and the Middle East have dominated much of the attention in the presidentâs second term so far.
So what will Rubio eventually decide to do? Well, Rubio said last summer he believed Vance would be a âgreat nominee,â adding of a potential Vance presidential run âI hope he intends to do it.â Then in December, Rubio suggested he would defer to Vance, if Vance runs.
However, hereâs what I keep coming back to: Rubio pledged during his 2016 presidential run that if he didnât win then he wouldnât run for Senate again. He doubled down after he bowed out of the primary as well⌠but not long after he backed off his pledge, and announced he was running for Senate again.
Hereâs the point: right now, thereâs both a short and long way until 2028, no matter who says what in the coming months. And Rubio is currently rising in the markets.
You can read the rest of Blakeâs post on his Substack!
đ Around the Corner đ
January 31, 2026
TX-18 Special Election Runoff
February 5, 2026
NJ-11 Special Election Primary
March 10, 2026
GA-14 Special Election (runoff likely)
April 7, 2026
Wisconsin Supreme Court General Election
GA-14 Special Election Runoff (if necessary)
April 16, 2026
NJ-11 Special Election
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