🗳️10 races to watch in Texas & North Carolina
The 2026 Primary Season kicks off with arguably the nation's highest-profile nomination races in Texas's U.S. Senate election
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Introducing DDHQ Votes: Learn about the launch of Decision Desk HQ’s new election data portal.
The Frontrunner: Previewing 10 primaries to watch on March 3 in Texas and North Carolina.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
☑️ Introducing DDHQ Votes ☑️
Decision Desk HQ is excited to formally announce the release of Votes, our new election data portal!
Dive into the world of election data with DDHQ Votes:
Up-to-date polling on the key issues and races
Track how prediction markets are moving
25 years of election results at your fingertips
Track election results as they come in
From local to federal, find every race
Coming Soon: DDHQ Forecast
Click here to learn more about Votes and sign up now! On Tuesday, it will the best place to get March 3 primary results from states like Texas and North Carolina, so don’t miss out.
📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
10 races to watch closely on March 3
Quick summary:
North Carolina: The U.S. Senate primaries in North Carolina won’t be all that competitive, so the main action is in two U.S. House primaries. One will select the Republican nominee to face Rep. Don Davis, one of the most endangered Democrats in the House, while the other is a much-watched Democratic primary clash between more progressive and establishment forces that could see Rep. Valerie Foushee lose renomination. Additionally, long-time Republican state Senate President Phil Berger could lose in his primary
Texas: Out of a huge number of interesting primaries, the biggest ones to watch will be each party’s nomination race for Senate. Democrats will choose between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, while Republicans appear headed for a runoff on May 26, most likely between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. We also dive into six other House primaries, including four in which an incumbent may or will lose.
And we’re off! The 2026 primary season begins on Tuesday with elections in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas. Of those states, the biggest contests are found in Texas and North Carolina. Voting on March 3 will include primaries for the top-tier U.S. Senate contests in both states, as well as U.S. House primaries that could see the ouster of as many as five incumbents.
We can’t get into every race here, so make sure to check out Decision Desk HQ’s new Votes platform, where we have a more extended list of featured races to monitor as returns come in on Tuesday night.
North Carolina
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 1st and 4th congressional districts; 26th State Senate District
North Carolina will have one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country this fall. But former Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley are expected to easily win their party primaries on Tuesday. As a result, the biggest races to watch in the Tar Heel State will be two contests in the U.S. House and an unusually high-profile state Senate race involving a longtime state GOP leader.
In the 1st District in eastern North Carolina, Rep. Don Davis is of the most endangered House Democrats. Last November, the GOP-led state legislature redrew the state’s congressional map to make the 1st much redder, shifting it from a seat that President Donald Trump carried by about 3 percentage points in 2024 to one where he led by nearly 12. Retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost to Davis by about 2 points in 2024, is one of the five Republicans seeking the GOP nomination here. Her main primary opponents look to be Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and state Sen. Bobby Hanig.
Buckhout certainly has a financial edge. She loaned her campaign $2 million, most of the nearly $2.2 million she had raised as of Feb. 11, dwarfing the $345,000 and $315,000 raised by Hanig and Buck, respectively. Buckhout has also benefited from close to $1 million in outside spending support. This includes more than $500,000 from American Mission, a super PAC associated with AI, which has run ads touting Buckhout as “the Trump conservative North Carolina needs.”
Still, the only public poll of this race suggests Buckhout does not have the nomination locked up. An early February survey from Emerson College/WNCT/CBS17 found Buckhout leading Buck just 26%-22%, with Hanig back at 11%. North Carolina election rules only require a candidate to win more than 30% to avoid a runoff, so a second round of voting is unlikely here.
To the west, the dark-blue 4th District around The Research Triangle plays host to an establishment-progressive Democratic primary clash. Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a stern challenge from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who lost to Foushee in the 2022 primary for a previous version of this district. With the Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over support for Israel, Allam has targeted Foushee’s past backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a major bogeyman in progressive circles. Allam, who is 32 years old, is also making a generational case in her progressive challenge against the 69-year old Foushee that could resonate amid the Democrats’ post-2024 debates over candidate age.
Foushee and Allam have raised similar amounts — a bit less than $600,000 — but have both benefited from ample outside spending. As of March 1, groups had spent $2.4 million supporting Foushee and $2.1 million backing Allam or opposing the incumbent. Jobs and Democracy, a super PAC backed by AI company Anthropic that promotes an appropriately regulated AI, has spent $1.6 million supporting Foushee. Allam’s biggest proponent ($1.1 million spent) has been American Priorities, a super PAC that aims to counter the influence of pro-Israel groups in Democratic primaries. We haven’t seen any public polling of this race, but all signs point to a highly competitive race.
Lastly, the other race to watch in North Carolina is the Republican primary in the state Senate’s 26th District. The seat, which sits mostly north of Greensboro, is home to state Senate President Phil Berger, who has led that body since 2011. Berger’s opponent is longtime Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, who has criticized Berger’s previous support for a now-abandoned casino project in the area and Berger’s support for repealing much of the controversial 2017 “bathroom law.” Berger has not taken this lying down. He has touted his support for more immediate tax cuts, while his allies have spent millions attacking Page’s record on jail safety and immigration.
Interestingly, Trump endorsed Berger’s reelection bid late last year. The Washington Post recently reported that Berger’s team angled for an endorsement in exchange for the state Senate leader’s support for redistricting the state’s congressional map — a quid pro quo charge that Berger denies. Either way, it remains to be seen if Trump’s support will be enough to help Berger stave off a primary defeat on Tuesday.
Texas
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern in most of the state (9 p.m. around El Paso in far western corner)
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 2nd, 18th, 23rd, 33rd, 34th, 35th congressional districts
In modern times, Texas has not had a U.S. Senate election in which both parties had highly competitive nomination races. Until this year.
On the Republican side of the aisle, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn finds himself fighting for his political life in a three-way contest with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt. A significant portion of the GOP base appears inclined to discard Cornyn after four terms. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, he’s garnering only 35%, placing him behind Paxton’s 39% and ahead of Hunt’s 17%. Texas requires a candidate to win an outright majority for the nomination, so a May 26 primary runoff between the top-two vote-getters looks like a given.
The resources poured into this primary have been astounding. Cornyn and his allies had spent or reserved $69 million in ads as of Feb. 27, according to data from AdImpact. That amounted to more than two-thirds of the $95.1 million in bookings for the GOP primary. Combined with the $27.5 million in ad spending and bookings in the Democratic primary, Texas now has the most expensive Senate primary on record.
Worryingly for the Cornyn camp, the huge spending advantage over Paxton has not dramatically altered the contours of the race. Still, the attacks continue apace because many Republicans fear that Paxton would be a weaker general election candidate due to a lengthy list of personal and professional scandals. To aid Cornyn, his allies have lobbied Trump to endorse the incumbent, but the president opted to stay out of the race ahead of the primary.
The pro-Cornyn forces have truly gone scorched earth in the closing days of the campaign. An ad run jointly by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Cornyn accused “crooked Ken” of “sleeping around with a married mother of seven” right after his wife filed for divorce on “Biblical grounds.” The spot also claimed that Paxton had enriched himself while in office and had given millions of tax dollars to “left-wing organizations.”
Paxton has responded to these attacks by turning to his family. In an op-ed and a campaign ad, one of his four children defended him as a family man who “loves God” and “loves his country.” As for Hunt, he seemed to be on the rise just a few weeks ago, in part because he had attracted millions in opposition spending. At this point, though, it would be a surprise if he made the likely runoff. Still, we shouldn’t write him off entirely: Pro-Hunt forces have spent more money than pro-Paxton forces, and primary polling error is much higher than general election polling error.
For Democrats, a Paxton victory could create an opening in the general election. It’s been 84 years — ahem, sorry, 32 years since the party won a statewide race in Texas, and 38 years since it won a Senate contest. But the Democratic primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico has clearly energized the party’s voters. Turnout is far higher than in recent non-presidential primaries, to the point that this could be the first midterm election since 2002 in which more Texas voters participate in the Democratic primary than the GOP primary.
And the much-watched Democratic race looks to be on a knife’s edge. As of Sunday evening, Decision Desk HQ’s polling average has Crockett (46.5%) and Talarico (46.0)% running just about even.
Crockett entered the race as the better-known figure, but Talarico has led the way on traditional campaign metrics, like fundraising and ad spending. Talarico has outraised Crockett $20.7 million to $8.6 million, and pro-Talarico forces had invested $22.1 million in advertising as of Feb. 27, per AdImpact’s data, almost five times more than the pro-Crockett side. Still, Crockett has attracted ample free earned media and has benefited from some high-profile endorsements. This includes a robocall recorded by former Vice President Kamala Harris that encourages voters to support Crockett.
With the prospect of a competitive general election, “electability” has become a much-discussed feature of this race. As a white, scripture-quoting man, Talarico and his allies argue that he can make inroads with some Texas voters who would not traditionally consider voting for a Democrat, very likely a necessity to build a winning coalition in a state Trump carried by nearly 14 points in 2024. Crockett, a Black woman known for her combative style, contends that she can appeal to disengaged Texans who typically don’t vote in a state with one of the lowest turnout rates in the country.
For their part, Republicans would prefer to face Crockett. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s political operation has spent more than $3 million on ads ostensibly attacking Crockett, but with the real aim of promoting her among Democrats — an approach often used in the past by Democrats to boost more problematic Republicans in GOP nominating contests.
Polls suggest Crockett will dominate among Black voters, while white voters will likely prefer Talarico to some extent. So, as Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune pointed out on the most recent DDHQ Podcast, Latino voters could prove decisive in this contest. This helps explain the efforts made by Talarico and Crockett to engage with Latino Democratic candidates and with the Latino community more broadly.
Considering Texas has 38 U.S. House seats and just redrew its district map, there are enough interesting congressional primaries to more than fill a 10-gallon hat. (Not to mention the primaries for Texas’s many other statewide offices). We will dig into races in six districts: two with Democratic primaries and two with Republican primaries in which an incumbent could lose renomination, a red-leaning seat held by a Democrat with a competitive GOP primary, and a newly-drawn open seat that could be competitive.
To start, Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in the 23rd District is probably the incumbent most vulnerable to a primary challenge this Tuesday. In his southwest Texas seat, Gonzales faces gun influencer Brandon Herrera in a rematch of the 2024 GOP primary — a race that went to a runoff that Gonzales only won by about 1 point. Given that result, another close race always seemed likely. However, this time around Gonzales had Trump’s endorsement, providing the incumbent with a helpful boost.
But recent news has placed Gonzales under extreme political duress. Last year, a former Gonzales staffer committed suicide. The married Gonzales, who has six children, denied allegations that he had been romantically involved with the late staffer. But in February, evidence surfaced that the staffer had told a colleague that she and Gonzales had an affair. Then correspondence came to light that showed Gonzales had sent explicit text messages to the staffer, which prompted some Republicans in Congress to call for him to resign. Gonzales has continued to deny the allegations of an affair.
All of this could doom Gonzales to defeat. Perhaps tellingly, Trump reposted on Friday every endorsement he had made of a congressional contender in Texas, except for Gonzales.
Another at-risk GOP incumbent is Rep. Dan Crenshaw of the 2nd District in the Houston area. He faces a primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth, who has attacked Crenshaw for not being sufficiently conservative. Crenshaw has upset some on the right with his more hawkish foreign policy views, including his support for Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. Toth has put a scare into a Republican incumbent before, too: In 2016, he held then-Rep. Kevin Brady, chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, to 53% in the 8th District primary.
Crenshaw does have a sizable financial edge. He has outraised Toth, $2.1 million to $589,000, and as of March 1, outside groups had invested $2.9 million supporting Crenshaw or attacking Toth, compared with $857,000 in similar spending on behalf of Toth. But Toth has real money behind him and some notable endorsements, too, including from Sen. Ted Cruz. Crenshaw, meanwhile, is the only incumbent House Republican from Texas whom Trump did not endorse.
In redistricting, Republicans aimed to win as many five seats currently held by Democrats. Among them was the 34th District in South Texas, held by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, which the new lines swung from Trump +4 to Trump +10. The Republican primary looks to be a contest between two candidates named Flores who are not related: former Rep. Mayra Flores, who lost to Gonzalez in the 2022 and 2024 general elections after winning a special election earlier in 2022, and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores.
The former congresswoman has shown strong fundraising chops, raising $1.4 million without any self-funding. While Eric Flores has raised a similar amount ($1.3 million) in a shorter period of active campaigning, a bit more than one-third of his haul came out of his own pocket. Still, the former prosecutor may have a Trump card: the president’s endorsement. Having lost twice, Mayra Flores may have worn out her welcome as the GOP looks to flip this seat.
South and east of San Antonio, the newly-drawn 35th District is another seat that Trump carried by about 10 points in 2024. After the lines changed substantially, Democratic Rep. Greg Casar opted to run in the new 37th District around Austin, leaving this seat open. A whopping 11 Republicans are seeking this seat, with perhaps four or so realistically having a shot. With that many candidates, a runoff is a distinct possibility.
The candidate with the best chance of winning is Carlos De La Cruz, an Air Force veteran and brother of GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz of Texas’s 15th District. He has Trump’s endorsement, which could be the ticket to victory on Tuesday or in a runoff. However, De La Cruz has not raised a huge amount of money ($294,000 as of Feb. 11), which may have precipitated the more than $700,000 he’s received in outside spending support. His main opponents are state Rep. John Lujan, Navy veteran Jay Furman, and former congressional aide Josh Cortez.
Democrats have not written off this seat, though they start out as underdogs. The party’s primary voters will choose between Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia and Marine veteran John Lira. While the two Democrats have raised similar amounts in the low-to-mid $100,000 range, Garcia may have the upper hand thanks to $300,000 in outside spending by BDA Action, a group connected to the moderate Blue Dog Democrats.
In the newly-drawn 18th District in Houston, one of Democratic Reps. Al Green or Christian Menefee will lose in an incumbent-versus-incumbent primary in a safe blue seat. Redistricting threw longtime member Green in with the newly-elected Menefee, who won a Jan. 31 special election for the old 18th District that had been vacant since Rep. Sylvester Turner died in March 2025. With redistricting, Republicans combined around two-thirds of Green’s current 9th District with about one-quarter of the old 18th District that Menefee just won, ultimately creating a heavily Democratic seat that narrowly has a citizen voting-age population with a Black majority.
Green might seem like the favorite, considering he already represents much of the population in this seat and has been in Congress for more than two decades. However, Green has not faced a competitive primary in years, and Menefee has been actively campaigning for nearly a year, between his special election bid for the old 18th and the regular primary for the new 18th. Although Green entered the home stretch of the race with far more money in the bank ($539,000 to $130,000), Menefee has received $1.7 million in outside spending assistance. Menefee’s main benefactor is Protect Progress, a pro-crypto group that has targeted Green because he voted against recent legislation dealing with crypto currency.
Lastly, Democratic Rep. Julie Johnson could lose renomination to her predecessor, former Rep. Colin Allred, who is challenging Johnson in the new version of the solidly blue 33rd District in the Dallas-Forth Worth area. When Allred ran for Senate against Cruz in 2024, he left behind the old and firmly blue 32nd District, which Johnson won. But then the GOP’s redistricting plan turned the 32nd into a safe Republican seat, and Johnson decided to run in the new 33rd, which contains about one-third of her current, expiring seat. Allred had been running for Senate again, but with Crockett about to enter the race, he switched to run for this congressional seat.
Allred outraised Johnson in the last pre-primary fundraising period before Feb. 11, $609,000 to $288,000. But Johnson has enjoyed a surge in outside spending support to shore up her position. All told, outside groups have spent about $711,000 supporting her or opposing Allred, compared with $339,000 on Allred’s behalf. And while Allred’s campaign released a December poll showing him up 58%-30%, Johnson may have closed that gap thanks to support from major figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who endorsed Johnson.
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There are many more races of interest happening on March 3, including a number of state office primaries in Texas. Make sure to follow the returns on Votes, our new election platform. And watch for further info about DDHQ’s livestream coverage of the results on Tuesday evening, which will be live on our YouTube page and X account.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
Notable upcoming elections:
March 10, 2026
GA-14 Special Election (runoff possible)
April 7, 2026
Wisconsin Supreme Court General Election
GA-14 Special Election Runoff (if necessary)
April 16, 2026
NJ-11 Special Election
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026!
Doing the right thing in Texas tonight and beyond!