Election Preview Extravaganza 🗳️
Let's take a look at what's on the ballot this Tuesday!
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Decision Desk HQ’s Election Night livestream!
The Frontrunner: A look at the elections happening on Tuesday.
Around the Corner: Upcoming races we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
Check out Decision Desk 2025: Presented by The Chuck ToddCast, Chris Cillizza, and DecisionDeskHQ. Chuck Todd and Geoffrey Skelley will host a results-rich and analysis-filled program tracking all of the key elections happening this November. The event will begin at 6:30 p.m. Eastern on Nov. 4, and will be livestreamed on X and YouTube.
The program will include a wide array of knowledgeable guests to talk about the trends, outcomes, and ramifications of everything happening on Election Day. Those guests include Lakshya Jain of SplitTicket and The Argument, former FiveThirtyEight senior analyst Nathaniel Rakich, Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, and Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report. You won’t find better coverage of the 2025 election anywhere else. So please join us on Tuesday evening!
📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
Election Day 2025 Preview
On Tuesday, 31 states will hold more than 20,000 elections for offices ranging from governor to county executive to local school board. Below, we run through some of the notable races on the ballot. You can follow all the results on Decision Desk HQ’s website, and make sure to tune in to the election livestream that I’m co-hosting on Tuesday night (see details above!).
Virginia
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. (all times Eastern)
The main event in Virginia is the race for governor, which features a history-making clash between former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. The winner will become Virginia’s first woman governor. Of the two, that looks more likely to be Spanberger, who leads Earle-Sears by about 9 percentage points in DDHQ’s polling average.
Next on the ballot is the election for lieutenant governor, which is a separately-elected office in Virginia. That makes Virginia one of 17 states (of the 43 with lieutenant governors) where the governor and lieutenant governor are not elected as a ticket, which opens the door to different parties possibly winning each office. But in 2025 at least, voters look more likely to pick Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi over Republican John Reid, a former talk-radio host. Hashmi leads in our polling average by about 4 points.
That’s not a safe lead, but the polls also have more undecided voters. That’s worth noting because the vote shares for Virginia’s three state offices tend to run pretty close together in our polarized era. So, if Spanberger ends up winning by a margin close to what she leads by in the polls, it’s likely that Hashmi will also win, and possibly by a somewhat similar margin. The lieutenant governor race is also positioned to make history. Hashmi would be the nation’s first Muslim woman elected to statewide office, while Reid would be the first openly gay Republican.
The third statewide office on Virginia’s ballot is attorney general, where Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares is running against Democrat Jay Jones, a former state delegate. (Only governors cannot seek reelection in Virginia.) Following revelations that Jones had sent a series of violence-laden text messages in 2022, Miyares took the lead in the polls and now finds himself ahead by about 3 points. The same party has swept all three statewide offices in four straight election cycles (2009 through 2021), but this race will test that streak and the coattails effect of the governor’s contest at the top of the ballot, should Spanberger win comfortably.
Virginia will also hold elections for all 100 seats in the House of Delegates, the lower chamber in the state legislature. Coming into the election, Democrats held a narrow 51-49 edge (including one solidly Republican seat that’s vacant). But House Democrats have vastly outraised House Republicans, and most of the competitive races are in seats held by the GOP — either “key” contests as defined by the Virginia Public Access Project or at all competitive based on State Navigate’s forecast model. Republican losses in these seats would expand the Democrats’ majority.
Democrats also narrowly control the state Senate, which is not up again until 2027, so the outcomes in the races for governor and the House of Delegates will determine whether Democrats attain a “trifecta” — full control of state government in Richmond. They will need that if the party wants to redistrict the state’s congressional map before the 2026 election, a move that the Democratic-led legislature took its first step toward last week.
Georgia
Polls close: 7:00 p.m.
Georgia is holding two special elections for public service commissioner. The 2nd and 3rd District seats were set to go before voters in 2024, but a lawsuit over how elections for the Public Service Commission work delayed them until this year. The legal wrangling had to do with the fact that the PSC’s five members represent districts within the state but are elected statewide, which the plaintiffs argued diluted the voting strength of Black voters in violation of the Voting Rights Act. A lower federal court agreed, but a federal appeals court overturned the decision, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to hear the case, ending the matter.
In the 2nd District, two-term Republican Commissioner Tim Echols faces Democrat Alicia Johnson, with the winner set to hold this seat until 2030. Meanwhile, the 3rd District race is between appointed Republican Commissioner Fitz Johnson and Democrat Peter Hubbard. The winner of that race will have to run for a full six-year term in 2026.
Republicans hold a 5-0 advantage on the PSC, but we do not have any polling here to gauge where things stand. Although Georgia continues to have a slight GOP lean, Republicans are concerned that local races, like the contest for Atlanta mayor, could boost Democratic turnout in an otherwise low-turnout environment. Democrats are hoping that anger over higher utility bills will also help them overcome Georgia’s light-red hue.
South Carolina
Polls close: 7:00 p.m.
Many localities around South Carolina hold elections on Tuesday, most notably the race for mayor in the capital city of Columbia. While it’s officially a nonpartisan election, Mayor Daniel Rickenmann identifies as a Republican while his main opponent, Jessica Thomas, identifies as a Democrat. Rickenmann managed to win here in 2021 even though Columbia is a deep-blue city (Trump lost it 68%-30% in 2024).
Florida
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. (8:00 p.m. in the Panhandle)
A handful of Florida communities are holding elections for mayor and other local offices. The most noteworthy contest is the race in Miami to succeed Mayor Francis Suarez, who briefly ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. A whopping 13 candidates are on the ballot, making a Dec. 9 runoff quite possible. The crowded field features Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins (Democrat), ex-city Commissioner Ken Russell (Democrat), former city manager Emílio González (Republican), former Mayor Joe Carollo (Republican), and former city Commissioner Alex Díaz de la Portilla (Republican). Also running is Republican Xavier Suarez, the mayor’s father and himself a former mayor.
New Hampshire
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. (8:00 p.m. in some municipalities)
More local races are on tap in New Hampshire, including the election for mayor in Manchester, the Granite State’s largest city. There, first-term Republican Mayor Jay Ruais is seeking a second two-year term in a contest against Board of School Committeewoman Jessica Spillers, a Democrat. Ruais only narrowly won in 2023, so this could be a close election, although Spillers only jumped into this race just before the candidate filing period closed.
North Carolina
Polls close: 7:30pm
Like its neighbor to the south, North Carolina also has a bevy of local elections on the docket. The major contests are the elections for mayor in Charlotte, Durham, and Greensboro. In Charlotte, the nation’s 14th-most populous city, Democratic Mayor Vi Lyles is seeking her fifth two-year term. Despite scrutiny over her response to a high-profile stabbing death on Charlotte’s light-rail system in August, Lyles is viewed as likely to win reelection in the blue city.
Ohio
Polls close: 7:30 p.m.
Cleveland and Cincinnati are holding elections for mayor, two contests among a much larger slate of local races happening across the Buckeye State. Both races involve millennial Democratic mayors seeking reelection in officially nonpartisan races. In Cincinnati, Mayor Aftab Pureval is seeking his second four-year term against Cory Bowman, a Republican and the half-brother of Vice President JD Vance. Pureval won 83% in the primary to Bowman’s 13%, so there is not much drama here. In Cleveland, Mayor Justin Bibb is also seeking his second four-year term. He, too, looks like a safe reelection bet in a race against Laverne Gore, a Republican running in part because she didn’t want Bibb to run unopposed.
New Jersey
Polls close: 8:00 p.m.
New Jersey plays host to the other election for governor on the ballot tomorrow. The race between Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblymember, favors the Democrat to some extent. After all, she leads in DDHQ’s polling average by not quite 5 points, 50%-46%. Still, some surveys have found very tight margins, so a Ciattarelli upset cannot be ruled out.
As our recent preview laid out, this race has seen each party seek to connect dissatisfaction with life in New Jersey with each party’s respective leaders. Democrats have run endless ads tying Ciattarelli to Trump, while Republicans have linked Sherrill to outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and the Democratic-led state government. Another big question is just how much the state’s recent rightward swing — Trump lost it by 6 points in 2024 after losing it by 16 in 2020 — will show up in an off-year, lower-turnout state-level race. Ciattarelli could have a path to victory if he can combine his strengths in his narrow loss to Murphy in the 2021 gubernatorial race with Trump’s improvement in 2024.
The Garden State will also elect its General Assembly, the state’s lower legislative chamber. New Jersey has 40 legislative districts, each of which elects one state senator (not up until 2027) and two assemblymembers. Democrats currently hold a 52-28 majority in the General Assembly and are very likely to retain control. Based on the election forecast from State Navigate, Democrats are heavy favorites to win both seats in 20 districts, which alone would get them to 40. They would then need only one seat from one of the legislative districts where they are favored to guarantee a majority. State Navigate projects about a one-seat gain for the GOP.
Pennsylvania
Polls close: 8:00 p.m.
Pennsylvania will hold statewide votes for a number of judicial elections on Tuesday. The most noteworthy are separate retention elections for three Democratic justices on the state Supreme Court, where Democrats hold a 5-2 majority. Unusually for a retention vote — which simply asks voters if they want to retain a justice for another 10-year term — this race attracted a lot of investment from both parties. If voters choose not to retain all three justices, the court will be split 2-2, and the process to fill three vacant seats could reach an impasse. That’s because Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is charged with appointing a temporary replacement, but that choice would have to be confirmed by the Republican-led state Senate.
Additionally, many Pennsylvania communities will hold elections for mayor. This includes Pittsburgh, where Democratic Mayor Ed Gainey lost in the May primary to former city council member Corey O’Connor, who is a heavy favorite to win tomorrow. Some counties will also hold elections for county executive, including highly-competitive places like Erie, Lehigh, and Northampton. Additionally, the district attorney race in Philadelphia has drawn plenty of eyeballs, as progressive incumbent Larry Krasner faces Pat Dugan, a former judge who lost to Krasner in the Democratic primary but won enough write-in votes in the GOP primary to accept the party’s nomination for the general election.
Maine
Polls close: 8:00 p.m.
Maine voters will weigh in on two citizen-initiated ballot measures. Question 1 calls for changes to a number of election laws. The measure would add a voter ID requirement but would also shorten the period for absentee voting, allow only one drop box per municipality, and end a program that allows disabled and elderly voters to have ballots automatically mailed to them at each election. A recent survey from the University of New Hampshire found Mainers split almost evenly, with Republicans overwhelmingly supportive and Democrats mostly opposed.
Meanwhile, Question 2 would enact a “red flag” law that would establish a process whereby law enforcement and/or family members could ask a court to temporarily take away dangerous weapons from someone. The UNH poll also found support split on this question, but with far more undecided voters than on Question 1.
Texas
Polls close: 8 p.m. (9 p.m. in western tip around El Paso)
Texas will decide on a series of ballot measures, while voters in the Houston area will also participate in a special election for the 18th Congressional District.
Overall, the Texas ballot features 17 propositions for amendments to the state constitution. Arguably the most noteworthy measure is Proposition 3, which would deny bail to persons accused of certain violent or sexual crimes. The measure would allow or, in some cases, compel judges to order pretrial detention for a defendant considered dangerous or a flight risk. Supporters argue the measure would improve safety, while opponents worry it would harm due process. Meanwhile, Proposition 12 would give the governor — currently Republican Greg Abbott — the power to appoint a majority of the members of the State Commission on Judicial Conduct. The panel is an independent agency with 13 members, five of whom are currently appointed by the governor.
Back in March, Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner unexpectedly died, leaving a vacancy in the solidly blue, Houston-based 18th Congressional District. A Democrat is nearly certain to win, but with 16 candidates on the ballot, it’s unlikely that anyone will garner a majority, forcing a runoff sometime next year. However, the eventual winner of this seat may not have much time in Congress after Texas Republicans redistricted. A majority of the current 18th ended up in the new 29th District, where Democratic Rep. Sylvia Garcia is seeking reelection. And while a quarter of the current seat is in the new 18th, Democratic Rep. Al Green represents nearly two-thirds of that turf.
Michigan
Polls close: 8 p.m. (9 p.m. in western Upper Peninsula)
Michigan is another state where many communities will be holding local elections for various offices. The most-watched race will be Detroit’s election for mayor, where Democratic incumbent Mike Duggan is leaving office to run for governor as an independent in 2026. The favorite in the race is City Council President Mary Sheffield, who won a narrow majority in the August primary and would make history as Detroit’s first woman mayor. She faces pastor Solomon Kinloch, who finished second in the primary with 17%. While the race is officially nonpartisan, both candidates are Democrats.
New York
Polls close: 9:00 p.m.
New York has many elections on the ballot tomorrow, but none have captured the limelight like the race for mayor in New York City. The contest to lead the nation’s largest city is a three-way race involving state Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani (the Democratic nominee), former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent), and Republican Curtis Sliwa, a longtime figure in Big Apple politics and entertainment. The national Democratic Party has found itself divided over Mamdani, a Democratic socialist who holds strongly pro-Palestinian views. Cuomo has tried to unite an anti-Mamdani coalition of more moderate Democrats, independents, and Republicans, but Mamdani holds a 13-point lead in DDHQ’s polling average.
Yet Mamdani’s advantage has varied substantially across the final polls, creating at least some uncertainty. While Mamdani is favored, it’s hard to know if he might actually garner a majority of the vote, which would help him claim a mandate. Of the surveys released since early last week, they have ranged from a Mamdani lead of 7 points (41%-34% in an AtlasIntel poll) to nearly 25 points (51%-26% including leaners in an Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill survey). Part of this is uncertainty about just who will turn out, although early voting indicates that overall turnout could be higher than in recent mayoral general elections.
Other populous New York communities also hold important elections on Tuesday. Buffalo, the state’s second city, will elect its next mayor; Democratic state Sen. Sean Ryan is a heavy favorite to win that contest. And next door to New York City, Nassau County will vote for county executive in a race that features Republican incumbent Bruce Blakeman (first elected in 2021) and Democratic county legislator Seth Koslow. Blakeman has outraised Koslow and is probably favored, but the Democrat is hoping that the county continues its trend of rejecting the president’s party — the last time that party won the executive post was 1989.
Minnesota
Polls close: 9:00 p.m.
The most-watched race in Minnesota is the race for mayor in Minneapolis, where Democratic-Farmer-Labor incumbent Jacob Frey is seeking his third four-year term against 14 other candidates in a ranked-choice voting election. Frey’s main opponent is state Sen. Omar Fateh, who is running to Frey’s left as a critic of the status quo. Frey is hoping that support from major party figures, like Gov. Tim Walz, and his fundraising edge will help him overcome Fateh. But Fateh is hoping that progressive energy — Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar has endorsed Fateh — and frustration with Frey’s tenure boost his chances. Like Omar, Fateh has his roots in Minneapolis’s Somali American community.
New Mexico
Polls close: 9:00 p.m.
Albuquerque’s race for mayor is the main event in New Mexico, and there Mayor Tim Keller finds himself somewhat unpopular as he seeks his third four year-term. A September survey from KOAT/Albuquerque Journal found that 47% of voters disapprove of Keller’s performance, compared with 42% who approved. The same poll found Keller leading the mayoral field with 25%, and he only polled near 40% when undecided voters were asked which way they leaned. Still, Keller is probably favored to win even though the race will go to a Dec. 9 runoff if no candidate wins a majority. That’s because Republican Darren White, a former Bernalillo County sheriff, appears to be the most likely second-place finisher, and a Democrat should have a good shot at winning in a city that Trump lost 60%-37% in 2024.
California
Polls close: 11:00 p.m.
Along with the two governors races and New York City mayor, the other contest on the national radar is Proposition 50, California’s ballot measure to redraw the state’s congressional map. After Texas Republicans started to draw more advantageous lines ahead of the 2026 election, Democrats in the California legislature passed a constitutional amendment to temporarily suspend the map drawn by the state’s independent redistricting commission and replace it with a more Democratic-friendly map. The measure is now before the voters, but the polls suggest there is not much doubt about the outcome. In DDHQ’s average, support for the proposition is ahead 57%-38%, putting it above the majority threshold it needs to pass.
Washington
Polls close: 11:00 p.m.
The last race we will mention here is Seattle’s contest for mayor, the main event on Washington’s electoral slate. When he announced his reelection bid late last year, Mayor Bruce Harrell looked to have a good shot at winning a second four-year term. But opposition from more progressive forces in the city has boosted the campaign of community organizer Katie Wilson, who now looks to be the favorite to defeat Harrell on Tuesday. In the top-two primary in August, Wilson surprised by garnering 51% to Harrell’s 41%. Should Harrell lose, it will continue a tough run for incumbents, as a Seattle mayor has not won reelection since 2005.
Other states holding elections on Tuesday, by poll closing times:
8:00 p.m.: Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Rhode Island
8:00 p.m. (9:00 p.m. in western edge): Kansas
8:30 p.m.: Arkansas
9:00 p.m.: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Wyoming
10:00 p.m.: Montana, Utah
10:00 p.m. (11:00 p.m. in Panhandle): Idaho
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📆 Around the Corner 📌
November 4, 2025
Election Day 2025
December 2, 2025
TN-07 Special Election
Brutal snub of the Saint Paul mayor's race ;)