š³ļø 16 races to watch in Indiana and Ohio
President Trump's revenge tour targets seven Indiana state senators, while Ohioans will pick nominees for U.S. Senate, governor, and a key U.S. House race
šŗ Whatās on tap š°
Todayās newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: Previewing 16 primaries to watch on May 5 in Indiana and Ohio.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections weāre tracking at DDHQ.
š Opening Bell š
Must-read items about elections and politics.
On Friday, Alabama and Tennessee both called special sessions of their state legislatures to consider congressional redistricting. The moves come in the wake of the Supreme Courtās ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, which weakened the Voting Rights Act. The Republican-led states will look to draw new lines that should enable the GOP to pick up additional seats in the two states. However, Alabamaās ability to redistrict before the 2026 midterms will hinge on whether the Supreme Court lifts an injunction blocking the state from redrawing before 2030.
As GOP-led states in the South look to redistrict their congressional maps, Axios reports that Democrats are exploring how to counter potential Republican gains. Democratic leaders are looking to Democratic-controlled states such as New York, Illinois, Colorado, Maryland, and New Jersey to redraw their maps. However, most would require constitutional changes approved by voters that would make it impossible to redraw until the 2028 cycle at the earliest.
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š The Frontrunner š„
The big primaries to watch in Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday
Quick summary:
In Indiana, President Donald Trump has endorsed primary challengers against seven state senators who opposed his push to redistrict the stateās congressional map. Two incumbent U.S. House members, Republican Rep. Jim Baird and Democratic Rep. AndrĆ© Carson, also face major primary opposition.
In Ohio, parties will make official their nominees for the stateās highly competitive U.S. Senate and governor contests. Republicans will nominate a challenger to vulnerable Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, while the GOP will also pick a state supreme court nominee to take on the only Ohio Democrat left in statewide office.
We are so back. Primary season restarts this week with nomination contests in Indiana and Ohio. This begins a run of nine consecutive weeks with state primaries or runoffs, covering the entirety of May and June.
Tomorrow, Indiana and Ohio have their fair share of fascinating primaries. In Indiana, President Donald Trump has endorsed seven primary challengers against state Senate incumbents who, back in December, bucked his wishes and opposed legislation to redistrict the stateās congressional map. Additionally, two incumbent U.S. House members face notable primary challenges. In Ohio, Republicans will pick nominees to take on vulnerable House Democrats, most notably Rep. Marcy Kaptur. The Buckeye State also hosts primaries for its most high-profile statewide races ā U.S. Senate and governor.
Below, we preview the major contests to watch on May 5. Make sure to check out our livestream coverage of the results on Tuesday night, with streams on X, YouTube, and Substack.
Indiana
Polls close: 6:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 4th, 7th congressional districts; seven state Senate primaries
State Senate elections are not usually leadoff material for a state primary preview when statewide and/or congressional contests are on the ballot. But of all the elections on the ballot Tuesday, President Trump may cares more about seven state Senate primaries in Indiana than any other race.
Late last year, many Indiana GOP leaders pushed forward with Trumpās wish for the state to pass a more favorable congressional map. The proposal would have almost certainly helped the GOP gain two more U.S. House seats in Indiana. But a slight majority of state Senate Republicans, including eight seeking reelection this year, voted to block the remap. Now Trump is out for revenge: Heās endorsed primary challengers against seven senators who voted no, as presented in the table below. Only Sen. Rick Niemeyer avoided a Trump endorsement in his renomination race.
Pro-redistricting forces have spent more than $6 million on ads against the seven targeted incumbents, according to data from AdImpact. Two of the groups leading the anti-incumbent charge, Hoosier Leadership for America and American Leadership PAC, are associated with Republican Sen. Jim Banks, and both are headed by Andrew Surabian, a longtime member of Trumpās political circle.
Other national groups, like Turning Point Action and the Club for Growth-affiliated Win It Back PAC, have also been heavily involved with direct mail and events. Meanwhile, groups associated with Republican Gov. Mike Braun have also waded in to oppose the anti-redistricting incumbents.
Still, itās not clear if this retribution campaign will pay major dividends. For one thing, the incumbents have significantly outraised their challengers, and have received at least $2.4 million in support from the Senate Majority Campaign Committee, the spending vehicle for the Indiana Senate GOP caucus. Moreover, reporting by Politico suggests that challengers are sometimes struggling to articulate why voters should remove their incumbents. Most attacks have little to do with redistricting, which speaks to the challenge of making that issue matter to many voters.
That being said, the seven individual primaries are difficult to handicap. Five of the targeted incumbents face head-to-head matchups, which means the anti-incumbent vote wonāt be splintered across multiple candidates. The other two incumbents have multiple opponents.
Of those in two-way contests, Sens. Jim Buck in the 21st District and Spencer Deery in the 23rd have faced some of the largest opposition expenditures. Meanwhile, Sen. Greg Walker is competing against a state representative, Michelle Davis, in the 41st District. Buck and Walker in particular might have vulnerabilities because both planned to retire before the redistricting conflict prompted each to reassess and run again. On the other hand, Sen. Travis Holdmanās Trump-backed opponent, Bluffton City Council member Blake Fiechter, actually dropped his bid in the 19th District for a time before restarting his campaign.
The two remaining races feature three candidates. This has created an interesting situation in the 38th District, where Sen. Greg Goode faces Trump-endorsed Vigo County Council member Brenda Wilson and a third candidate, the similarly-named Alexandra Wilson. Hoosier Leadership for America has run ads against āGreg and Alexandraā that aim to get voters to support āTrump-endorsed Brenda instead.ā
In the 4th Congressional District, situated in western Indiana, another GOP officeholder faces a significant primary challenge. But in this case, itās Trump-endorsed Rep. Jim Baird, who must contend with state Rep. Craig Haggard. First elected in 2018, Baird was subject to rumors that he would retire and have his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, seek this seat in his stead. But last summer, Haggard jumped into the primary, saying he would take on whichever Baird ended up running.
Strikingly, the elder Baird has not fundraised like someone who expected primary difficulties. As of April 15, he had collected only $283,000 to Haggardās $173,000. And Haggard may have enough outside aid to make up that small gap. Last week, Homeland PAC dropped $200,000 on digital ads opposing Baird. The conservative group is targeting GOP incumbents who support immigration reform. Baird drew their wrath by cosponsoring the DIGNIDAD Act, a bipartisan bill that seeks to increase border security but also provide a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants.
In the Indianapolis-based 7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. AndrĆ© Carson has had little electoral trouble since he won a 2008 special election to succeed his late grandmother, Democratic Rep. Julia Carson. But this year, he faces the most primary opposition of his career. Three candidates are taking on Carson, arguing that heās too beholden to special interests. Carsonās leading challenger appears to be George Hornedo, an attorney who worked in President Barack Obamaās administration. Still, Carson has outraised Hornedo by a fair amount, $792,000 to $269,000.
Overall, Carson will likely win renomination, in part because opposition will be split across three candidates. However, Carsonās performance and his opponentsā combined vote share could be a warning sign for his political career. Dating back to 2010, Carson has always won at least 85% of the primary vote ā a figure he will almost certainly fall short of this time.
Ohio
Polls close: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 1st, 9th, 13th, 15th congressional districts; governor, state supreme court
The two biggest contests on Ohioās ballot have mostly perfunctory primaries. In the special election for U.S. Senate, appointed Sen. Jon Husted is unopposed for the Republican nomination after succeeding now-Vice President JD Vance. On the Democratic side, former Sen. Sherrod Brown faces one minor opponent. The stakes here are very high: Despite its red lean, Ohio is nearly a must-win for Democrats if they want to have a shot at a Senate majority. As things stand, early general election surveys show a highly competitive race, with Husted ahead 49%-46% in Decision Desk HQās polling average.
Ohioās open-seat race for governor ranks as the stateās other top-tier contest. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine is term-limited, which seemingly set the stage for a competitive GOP primary in 2026. But 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy consolidated most party support, especially by earning Trumpās endorsement. In the end, his only opponent is car designer Casey Putsch, whose underdog campaign has attracted attention among some conservatives for his criticisms of Ramaswamy.
Assuming Ramaswamy wins ā itād be one hell of a shock if he didnāt ā he will meet Democrat Amy Acton in the general election. Acton, who is unopposed for her partyās nomination, was state health director during the COVID-19 pandemic, a role in which she garnered attention by regularly appearing at press conferences with DeWine ā and controversy over pandemic-related closures. Much like the Senate race, early polling in the Ramaswamy-Acton matchup indicates a competitive contest, with Ramaswamy holding a 48%-45% lead in Decision Desk HQās primary average.
In Ohioās U.S. House primaries, the most-watched contest is the Republican nomination race in the 9th District, located in northwestern Ohio. Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in the Houseās history, is seeking a 23rd term. But in Ohioās mid-decade redistricting process, Republicans made Kapturās seat even redder, shifting it from a Trump +7 seat to Trump +11. Kaptur only won reelection in 2024 by 0.6 percentage points under the old lines.
Among House Democrats currently seeking reelection, Kaptur is running in the third-most GOP-leaning seat (this excludes Florida, where some incumbentsā electoral decisions are in flux amid that stateās redistricting process). Given the 9th Districtās red hue and Kapturās close 2024 result, the median rating from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabatoās Crystal Ball gives Republicans a slight edge.
Yet it is unclear just who will advance out of the crowded GOP primary to face Kaptur, especially because Trump has not issued an endorsement. One leading contender is former state Rep. Derek Merrin, who narrowly lost the 2024 race against Kaptur. But Merrin faces serious opposition from state Rep. Josh Williams, Air Force veteran Alea Nadeem, and former ICE Deputy Director Madison Sheahan.
While Merrin may be better known from his 2024 run, Williams leads the fundraising race, having collected about $852,000 as of April 15 ā and with zero self-funding. Thatās more than Merrinās $757,000 haul, about 40% of which came from his own pocket. Nadeem has fundraised well, too, pulling in $690,000 with no self-funding. Sheahan only entered the race in mid-January, but in three months she raised $158,000, more than anyone except Williams raised in the first quarter of 2026.
In the closing days of the campaign, some Ohio Republicans have expressed concerns about Sheahanās late surge due to her role at ICE. While Sheahan has put ICE at the center of her primary campaign, her connection to the agencyās unpopular immigration raids could be fodder for Kaptur to use against the Republican in the general election. Sheahanās weaker ties to the district might also be an issue, as sheās spent most of the past few years working outside Ohio. By comparison, Williams and Merrin currently or previously represented parts of this district in the state legislature.
Republicans will also pick a nominee in the Cincinnati-based 1st District, where Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman is seeking reelection. The GOP hopes to give Landsman a serious challenge after redistricting shifted this seat from one that then-Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 6 points to one that Trump would have won by 3 points.
The GOP frontrunner is Air Force veteran and former CIA official Eric Conroy, who earned Trumpās endorsement in mid-April. That move prompted Conroyās most well-funded rival, dentist Steven Erbeck, to drop out, though his name remains on the ballot. Still, businesswoman Holly Adams has not given up, and sheās put enough money into her campaign to perhaps make things interesting. The eventual GOP nominee could be a slight underdog against Landsman in whatās looking like a blue-leaning midterm.
Elsewhere, Republicans will pick their candidate to face Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in the Akron-based 13th District. This seat has a light-blue hue ā Harris wouldāve carried it by 3 points ā but Sykesās GOP opponent in 2024, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin, abandoned his campaign for a rematch after redistricting made the seat a tad bluer. None of the active Republican candidates has raised even $100,000, which suggests Sykes could enjoy smooth sailing in 2026.
While Republicans have most of Ohioās primary action, Democrats do have nomination races in some red-leaning districts that they hope to put in play. One such seat is the 15th District held by Republican Rep. Mike Carey, a Trump +10 seat that sits south and west of Columbus. Democrats must choose between former state Rep. Adam Miller, who lost to Carey in 2024, and Ohio State University professor Don Leonard. Miller is the favorite, having raised $813,000 to Leonardās $287,000.
Lastly, Republicans have a contested primary for state supreme court that merits a mention. The GOP holds a 6-1 majority on the high court, with Associate Justice Jennifer Brunner as the lone Democrat. But Brunnerās seat is up this year, and a quartet of Republican contenders aim to unseat the only Democrat who still holds statewide office in Ohio. (Brunner was elected in 2020 when state supreme court races were formally nonpartisan, but Ohio began using party labels for those elections in 2022.)
The four-way race involves three state appellate judges ā Andrew King, Jill Flagg Lanzinger, and Ronald Lewis ā plus Colleen OāDonnell, a former Franklin County judge who most recently served as federal immigration judge. Lewis probably has the most notable endorsement in the race from DeWine, who appeared in an ad on his behalf. But Lanzingerās name might be familiar to some voters: Sheās the daughter-in-law of retired Ohio Supreme Court Justice Judith Ann Lanzinger.
On the money front, Lanzinger had spent $211,000 in 2026 as of April 23, notably more than the $96,000 or so disbursed by Lewis or OāDonnell. For his part, King had barely spent anything. However, he also had the most money left in the bank, with around $231,000 for the primaryās final weeks. As with the Senate and gubernatorial contests, this judicial race will test whether a Democrat can still in in red-leaning Ohio.
š Around the Corner š
On DDHQ Votes, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
May 5:
Indiana primary (including a number of pivotal state Senate primaries)
Ohio primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
May 12:
Nebraska primary (including the 2nd Congressional District)
West Virginia primary (including U.S. Senate)
May 19
Alabama primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Georgia primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Idaho primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Kentucky primary (including U.S. Senate)
Oregon primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Pennsylvania primary (including Governor)
May 26
Texas primary runoffs (including the GOP race for U.S. Senate)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.