Decision Desk HQ recently released its 2026 midterm election forecast for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. And the topline numbers suggest that both chambers are legitimately up for grabs. In this episode, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by two of his colleagues to discuss the outlook for November: Scott Tranter, director of our Data Science, and Maddisen Murrell, a Data Science Fellow who helps run the forecast.
They talked about the ins and outs of the forecast, including how it works, as well as the broader electoral environment and how it relates to the Senate and House battles. They also broke down key Senate races and each party’s potential path to a majority in that chamber.
Chapters:
03:30 — Overall electoral environment
08:22 — How the forecast works
16:28 — The broader House picture and how it compares to 2018 and 2022
24:12 — Key Senate seats and paths to a majority
35:58 — Contrary to conventional wisdom, one party could win full control of Congress
41:05 — Key House seats to watch on Election Night
