We are about six months out from the 2026 midterm elections. That means some of the larger environmental factors that will impact the electoral playing field are getting clearer. But plenty of things are not fully settled, including public attitudes toward President Donald Trump and the economy, or the candidates that each party will nominate for key races in 2026. And as Virginia’s redistricting vote showed us this week, even the congressional maps for the midterm are not finalized.
To discuss what will matter in 2026 — and just how much — Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Chris Cillizza, a longtime political journalist and independent news creator who runs the Substack and YouTube channel “So What.” Chris regularly delves into major political topics of the day, from what’s going on with the president, to the latest happenings in Congress, to major electoral developments. Chris is also part of the election night livestream team with Decision Desk HQ and Chuck Todd, which is covering results throughout 2026.
Geoffrey and Chris started out with a broad overview of where things stand with the election roughly six months away (2:09). They then turned to the nationwide redistricting conflict, with the back-and-forth across the country exemplifying the nationalized nature of contemporary American politics (6:05). While redistricting will have consequences from state to state, in aggregate the changes driven by each party may roughly cancel each other out. But redistricting seems likely to make Congress even more polarized.
They then moved to the president and the economic picture (18:05). They discussed how rising gas prices look likely to hurt the Republican brand in November, especially because Trump won in 2024 in large part because he was seen as a better choice for economic growth. Chris and Geoffrey then talked about Trump’s overall approval and on specific issues, including losing support among Republicans in some cases (24:35). In connection with Trump’s worsening ratings, consumer sentiment is at a modern low. Yet the president and his team may be putting its collective head in the sand when it comes to acknowledging broad economic concerns — much like President Joe Biden’s administration before it (30:27).
From there, they shifted to some specific events and candidate choices that could impact the midterms. They started with a discussion of the rumors about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s potential retirement and how an event like that could affect Republican turnout (37:00). They then closed by talking about candidates in some key races, such as Maine Democrats’ likely choice to nominate Graham Platner for Senate and the Democrats’ three-way primary race in Michigan’s Senate election (41:38).
