Could John Cornyn fail to make a runoff in Texas’s Republican primary for Senate?
Three-way race remains tight and no one looks likely to win a majority
Weekly Spotlight
Ah, Texas, the eyes of America are upon you. The Lone Star State’s U.S. Senate race is one of the marquee contests of the 2026 midterms. And the identity of the eventual Republican nominee remains very up in the air.
A new spate of GOP primary polling continues to show a close race involving incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Paxton leads with about 30% in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, with Cornyn polling around 25% and Hunt at 20%. If no candidate wins an outright majority — increasingly the likely outcome — the top two candidates in the primary would advance to a May 26 runoff.
Recent polling of this race has even raised the prospect that Cornyn might fail to advance to the likely runoff. Of the four polls released in the past week, the incumbent placed third in two of them. A poll from GOP pollster Cygnal conducted at the end of January found Paxton narrowly ahead 26%-25% over Hunt, with Cornyn only garnering 22%. Around the start of February, a J.L. Partners’ survey also found Paxton (27%) a tick ahead of Hunt and Cornyn (26%), though well inside the margin of error.
The other two new polls found Hunt farther behind Paxton and Cornyn. A University of Houston Hobby School/YouGov survey conducted across late January put Paxton in first with 38%, followed by Cornyn with 31%, and Hunt at 17%. An early February poll from Pulse Decision Science for the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC found Paxton at 29%, Cornyn at 23%, and Hunt at 15%.
Despite millions and millions in outside spending support, Cornyn continues to struggle in this race. These recent polls suggest that there is at least some chance that he could become the first elected senator in more than 80 years who failed to make a primary runoff when no candidate won a majority in the initial primary. In 1944, Democratic Sen. Hattie Caraway’s tenure came to an ignominious end when she finished fourth in her party’s primary; then-Rep. J. William Fulbright won the runoff and went on to serve 30 years in the Senate (until he too lost renomination in 1974).
Regardless of whether he makes the likely primary runoff, Cornyn is in deep trouble. An incumbent polling below 30% less than a month out from his primary, even in a three-way race, is fundamentally very weak. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the only way Cornyn goes on to win is if he receives an endorsement from President Donald Trump. And Trump might be unwilling to risk backing a candidate in this weak of a position, especially one whom the Republican right views as too establishment.
Important national averages
President Donald Trump’s job approval
Speaking of President Trump, his job approval continues to hover in the low 40s and his disapproval in the mid-50s. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Trump has an approval rating just under 43% and a disapproval rating of about 54%.
Trump’s standing reflects an overall downturn in his approval rating compared with earlier in his second term. He spent most of the first 10 months back in the White House polling around 45%. But since then, he’s more often hovered between 40 and 45%, as he stands now.
Long story short, Republicans need Trump’s public standing to improve some in the coming months to give themselves a better chance of minimizing midterm losses. It could be difficult for the GOP to hold onto the House, where it holds just a slim 220-215 advantage (including vacancies with their former party). But if Trump’s approval remains stagnant or worsens, it could open the door a bit wider for Democrats in the Senate, where Republicans remain favored.
Generic Ballot
Democrats continue to lead in Decision Desk HQ’s average of generic ballot polling. However, their lead has ticked just beneath 4 points, the closest our average has been since mid-December.
However, it remains to be seen if this slightly reduced Democratic edge will have staying power. The last time the average narrowed below 4 points in mid-December, polls pretty quickly reverted to giving Democrats closer to a 5-point edge. Still, a more consistent narrower margin would potentially indicate at least some tightening in the national U.S. House race.
Right Track/Wrong Track
The share of respondents who said the country was on the wrong track ticked up slightly over the past week. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, 58% say things are moving in the wrong direction, while 36% say the country is on the right track.
Still, much as with Trump’s approval, these numbers do not indicate much of a change to the larger political picture. People are unhappy, but not in a way that’s drastically different from where things have been since September, when polling on this measure worsened somewhat.
2026 Elections
South Carolina Governor: Republican Primary
The four-way race in South Carolina’s Republican primary for governor remains as murky as ever. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Rep. Nancy Mace now leads with 19%, while Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and state Attorney General Alan Wilson are both polling at about 15%. Rep. Ralph Norman sits in fourth with 11%. A potential Trump endorsement might be the only thing that separates any candidate from the pack in this race. Even then, a primary runoff looks relatively likely.
Tellingly, the most recent survey of this race found nearly half of primary voters were undecided. A Targoz Market Research poll for the South Carolina Policy Council found Mace leading with 18%, Evette and Norman at 12%, and Wilson at 11%. One other contender, state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, received 4%. That left 43% of respondents undecided — showing how the electorate is ripe for the direction that a presidential endorsement might offer.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.