Democrats are still underdogs in the Senate
Vibes are getting ahead of reality when it comes to rating the Democrats' chances of capturing the Senate
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: Democrats’ chances of winning control of the Senate in 2026 have definitely improved, but the vibes have outrun the data supporting the actual likelihood of that outcome.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
On Monday morning, the Supreme Court of Virginia will hear oral arguments in three lawsuits challenging the redistricting constitutional amendment passed by voters last Tuesday. The outlook for how the court might rule is murky. But if it ruled against the vote, that would prevent the implementation of a new Democratic gerrymander of Virginia’s congressional map.
Late last week, Axios reported on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s strategy to redistrict Florida’s congressional map such that will make it difficult for legal challenges to stymie its implementation. With Virginia’s potential redraw, Republicans are looking to Florida to create opportunities to win more U.S. House seats in November. The Florida legislature meets on Tuesday to consider maps drawn by DeSantis’s team, which have yet to be revealed.
☑️ Introducing DDHQ Votes ☑️
Check out Votes, Decision Desk HQ’s new election data portal!
Dive into the world of election data with DDHQ Votes:
Up-to-date polling on the key issues and races
Track how prediction markets are moving
25 years of election results at your fingertips
Track election results as they come in
From local to federal, find every race
Coming Soon: DDHQ Forecast
Click here to learn more about Votes and sign up now! Now is the perfect time to join, with the 2026 primary election season about to restart in earnest on May 5.
📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
Democrats could win the Senate in 2026, but they aren’t even money — yet
Quick summary:
National trends, news reports, and swings in prediction markets suggest Democrats are catching up to Republicans in the race to win the Senate in 2026. Some sources, particularly prediction markets, even make Democrats about even money to control the chamber after November’s elections.
But the vibes have run ahead of the data. Democrats face a daunting map that will require them to flip at least one seat that leans at least 10 points to the right of the country — and really two, if we round Ohio’s (R+9.7) lean in the presidential election. Thing is, no opposition party has flipped a seat that unfavorable in a midterm since 2010 — and just twice since 1994.
Democrats do lead in early polls in five of the 11 key Senate contests, while most of the other races look very competitive. But they will need pretty much everything to go right to gain a Senate majority.
Republicans are increasingly worried that they could lose control of the U.S. Senate in November. This is understandable: President Donald Trump’s approval rating is around 40% and polls find Democrats are leading or are competitive in states they must or likely need to flip to capture Congress’s upper chamber.
However, the growing “Democrats can win the Senate” vibe has outrun the data supporting the actual likelihood of that outcome. The fact is, Republicans remain at least somewhat favored to retain their Senate majority. Democrats must win a net gain of four seats to flip the chamber, and they need at least one seat that leans more than 10 points toward the president’s party. Yet the opposition party has not flipped a Senate seat that unfavorable in a midterm since 2010. And looking at current polls, Democrats can reasonably be called favorites in two races they must win, but the remaining key contests are highly competitive or lack enough data to say much with confidence.
Prediction markets and vibes
Every day, a major news outlet seems to publish an article highlighting GOP fears about 2026 — and with good reason. Many data points augur poorly for the party in power. The president’s job approval rating has ticked down since the start of the year. Economic confidence is in the doldrums: The University of Michigan’s long-running Index of Consumer Sentiment Index just hit an all-time low. The country is engaged in an unpopular conflict with Iran that has precipitated higher gas prices and could continue for many more months.
Correspondingly, prediction markets regarding which party will win the Senate have moved toward Democrats. That in turn has led to more news coverage about the possibility of a Democratic takeover. At the start of the year, Kalshi and Polymarket each gave Republicans about a 2 in 3 shot of retaining their majority in the Senate. But now both Kalshi and Polymarket gives the parties about an equal chance of controlling the Senate.
Similarly, if you take the aggregate probabilities across the markets for all individual Senate races, the numbers in both Kalshi and Polymarket add up to about 51 seats for Democrats and 49 seats for Republicans. Bettors on each prediction market made Democrats the favorites in Maine and North Carolina back in 2025. Yet recently, the markets also made the party slight favorites in both Ohio and Alaska, states that Trump carried in 2024 by 11 points and 13 points, respectively.
Reality check
National trends have made Democrats strong favorites to capture the U.S. House of Representatives. But they do not signal that Democrats are at even odds to win the Senate. Whereas every House seat is up in November, only about one-third of the Senate’s 100 seats will be on the ballot because of its staggered six-year terms. And it so happens that the group of seats up in 2026 are particularly favorable for the GOP. Senate Democrats need a net gain of four seats to overcome the Republicans’ 53-47 majority. A three-seat gain would be insufficient because Vice President JD Vance can break 50-50 ties for the GOP.
Now, Democrats are best positioned to capture Republican-held seats in Maine and North Carolina. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is the only GOP senator who holds a seat that Trump lost in 2024. In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper has given Democrats a top-tier candidate in a key open seat. The race ratings from The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball generally view both contests as toss-ups. But prediction markets are more confident in Democrats; for instance, Kalshi’s probabilities in the table below give them about a 3 in 4 shot or better of winning each. Either way, to have a shot at the majority, Democrats must flip those two seats while also holding onto their three most vulnerable seats — Georgia, Michigan, and New Hampshire.
If Democrats can manage to win those five races — far from a given — they still need to find two more seats among a second tier of seats that Trump carried by at least 11 points in 2024. Of those, early polling suggests Democrats may be best positioned to be competitive in Alaska and Ohio. After those two, similarly red seats in Iowa and Texas are also high-stakes Democratic targets. An additional seat, Florida, could also become competitive, although it’s not currently viewed as on the same level. Plus, independent Dan Osborn’s bid in Nebraska against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts is an additional race to monitor, as an Osborn win would help Democrats’ chances of control even if he nominally avoids caucusing with a party.
This second tier is where we get a reality check on Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate. Let’s consider these seats based on their lean relative to the country in the 2024 presidential race. This will help us better explain why past electoral results suggest that this situation still favors Republicans. In 2024, Trump carried the national popular vote by about 1.5 points. So, if we gauge each state by how it compares to the nation as a whole, we find that just three of the Democrats’ top GOP targets are fewer than 10 points to the right of the country as a whole.
So, to win a majority, Democrats must flip at least one seat that leaned 10 points or more to the right of the country in 2024. But in the past eight midterms, only twice has the opposition flipped a seat that leaned more than 10 points toward the president’s party. The chart below presents every Senate seat the president’s party has defended in midterms dating back to 1994. Each is positioned by how much the state leaned toward or against the president’s party, and whether that party lost. I have also included the partisan lean of the GOP-held seats up in 2026.
The chart notes the two cases in which the president’s party lost a seat that leaned more than 10 points toward it. In 2006, Democrat Jon Tester narrowly won a race in Montana over Republican Sen. Conrad Burns. Four years later, in 2010, Republican Rep. Mark Kirk won a close open-seat race in Illinois that had previously been held by Barack Obama. (Both seats had leaned about 18 points toward the president’s party in the last presidential contest).
The rarity of the opposition party winning seats this unfavorable illustrates the difficult task that Democrats face in 2026. Only three GOP-held seats up in November — Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio — leaned fewer than 10 points to the right of the country in 2024. Democrats will have to win all three and one more seat among a group of four that are all about R+12 in lean: Florida, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas. Lastly, they could have Osborn’s quasi-independent bid in R+19 Nebraska work out in their favor, though Ricketts appears to be taking Osborn more seriously than GOP Sen. Deb Fischer did in 2024.
The thing is, Ohio’s lean (R+9.7) is actually closer to the quartet of states that are slightly redder than R+10 than it is to Maine and North Carolina. So, practically speaking, Democrats need to win two seats in that upper range because Ohio’s partisan lean rounds to R+10. That means they need to accomplish this feat twice in one election cycle even though it has happened just two times in the past eight midterms. And they need to do so without losing any seats that they control, which includes two seats in states that Trump narrowly carried in 2024 (Georgia and Michigan).
Is this possible? Yes. Could it become more likely than not by November? Yes. But clearly Democrats need a lot to go right to achieve this result. Think of it as an open-ended straight draw after the flop in a game of Texas hold’em. Democrats could absolutely draw one of the cards they to complete their straight, but they could also hit nothing and lose to the GOP’s pair of 9s — or Republicans could even improve its hand to three-of-a-kind, if you will, by flipping a Democratic-held seat.
What polls say right now
Now, past midterm results from 1994 to 2022 are not absolutely indicative of future results in 2026. However, polls from these 11 major races also suggest that Democrats are not necessarily running at even odds to capture the Senate — though they do have a real chance at a majority. Decision Desk HQ has polling averages for the established or likely general election matchups in Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. The other races have a mixed amount of polling, and in some cases it remains unclear whom one or both parties will nominate.
Taking the averages we have and more limited polling data in the other states, Democrats may have at least a small edge in five of the 11 key races. But in the end, they must win seven — the three they already control and four GOP-held seats — to capture a majority.
In the three states where we have averages, Democrats appear ahead in two of them. In Maine, Collins appears most likely to face progressive Graham Platner. Despite some controversy, Platner leads Collins by about 6 points in our polling average testing the two candidates against each other. In North Carolina, Cooper is ahead by about 7 points in our average over former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley. But in Ohio, appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted leads former Sen. Sherrod Brown by about 3 points.
From there, more limited polling suggests that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff leads his potential GOP rivals in Georgia, and Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has at least a small edge over the two Republican possibilities in New Hampshire. Both Georgia and New Hampshire are must-hold seats for Democrats. Additionally, Democrats might have a real shot at winning Alaska. For instance, recent surveys from Alaska Survey Research have found former Rep. Mary Peltola leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
But from there, things get murkier for Democrats. Polls in Iowa and Texas generally show close contests that will depend in part on whom each party nominates. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson will face whomever Democrats pick between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls. And in Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico awaits the outcome in the GOP primary runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton.
In Michigan, a competitive three-way Democratic primary has Republicans hopeful that they could compete for the state’s open seat. The Michigan seat is also a must-hold for Democrats. But early polls suggest that Republican Mike Rogers would be competitive against any of former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Rep. Haley Stevens. In particular, surveys do show El-Sayed, the most progressive Democratic contender, performing slightly worse against Rogers than Stevens or McMorrow.
Lastly, we don’t have much to go on in Nebraska, where Osborn and Ricketts might meet in a (mostly) head-to-head race. Osborn’s internal polls show a very tight race, but we don’t have any polls from unaligned sources seconding this finding. And in Florida, appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody leads early surveys against the likeliest Democratic candidate, Alex Vindman.
***
Democrats could definitely win the Senate in 2026. But to say that, right now, they are an even money bet with Republicans seems at odds with the partisan makeup of the seats up this year, historical election patterns, and early polling.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ Votes, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
May 5:
Indiana primary (including a number of pivotal state Senate primaries)
Ohio primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
May 12:
Nebraska primary (including the 2nd Congressional District)
West Virginia primary (including U.S. Senate)
May 19
Alabama primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Georgia primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Idaho primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Kentucky primary (including U.S. Senate)
Oregon primary (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Pennsylvania primary (including Governor)
May 26
Texas primary runoffs (including the GOP race for U.S. Senate)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.
To me the Democrats have more then a underdog chance of winning the senate there is a lot of people depending on it with Healthcare is a main objective.