Favorability Wars: The Democrats catch the GOP
The Democratic Party’s favorability is now better than the Republican Party’s, though both remain in net negative territory
Welcome to Decision Desk HQ’s revamped polling memo. We decided to move the memo from Wednesdays to Tuesdays to make sure readers have the most updated data heading into election days in 2026. We will be adding more 2026 primary and general election averages as we get more polls, so stay tuned!
Weekly Spotlight
For much of 2025, Americans viewed the Republican Party more favorably than the Democratic Party. The Democrats found themselves in a deep hole after Joe Biden’s unpopular presidency. Democrats not only suffered from negative views among independents, but also mediocre ratings from Democrats themselves, who held a much lower opinion of their own party than Republicans did of theirs.
Yet late last year, the parties’ favorability numbers moved closer together. And following the November 2025 elections, the Democrats’ actually enjoyed their first stretch of superior net favorability during Trump’s second term in office. As of Tuesday, the Democratic Party finds itself with its lowest unfavorable percentage in the past year (43.5%), while its favorability figure sits at 37.4%, giving it a net favorability of about -6.
By comparison, the Republican Party’s favorability stands at 35.3% and its unfavorability at 47.5%, a -12 net rating that puts it below the Democrats’ figure. Now, it’s true that the Democrats’ average did just experience an abrupt shift. A survey from The Bullfinch Group/The Independent Center found 37% of voters held a favorable view of Democrats, compared with 39% unfavorable. The -2 net figure was among the party’s best over the past year, which prompted our average to move a fair bit. It remains to be seen if other pollsters will find similar numbers — or if this turns out to be an outlier.
However, the Democrats’ broad improvement predates The Bullfinch survey. Below is a chart of the net favorability for each party in DDHQ’s polling averages since January 2025. Outside of a momentary blip in May 2025, the GOP consistently held a higher net rating until November 2025. At that point, the Democrats pulled even and then ahead. Although the parties were back to running even before The Bullfinch poll, the general trend has been one of improvement for Democrats relative to the GOP.
The GOP’s unified control of the federal government and Trump’s underwater approval rating have likely contributed to this shift, prompting the GOP’s net favorability to drift down while rallying Democrats to their party after holding more negative attitudes.
Important national averages
President Donald Trump’s job approval
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating sits at about 43% and his disapproval rating is about 53%, for a net rating of -10. His numbers have worsened slightly in the past couple of weeks. Still, where his average goes from here could depend on how the American public responds to the recent U.S. operation in Venezuela to capture President Nicolás Maduro. And that response could depend on how involved — or not — the U.S. finds itself in a post-Maduro Venezuela. Initial polling suggests Americans are at least skeptical of intervention in Venezuela, but whether that affects Trump’s approval rating remains to be seen.
Generic Ballot
We are now 11 months from the midterm elections, so naturally we will be keeping an even closer eye on the generic ballot, which measures which party voters say they plan to vote for in the next election. In DDHQ’s average, Democrats now hold a nearly 6-point lead over the GOP. Democrats have mostly held a lead on this measure over the past few months, but obviously the extent of that lead come November (if Democrats maintain it) will serve as an indication of how well or poorly we expect each party to perform in the midterms.
Right Track/Wrong Track
Decision Desk HQ’s right track/wrong track average has remained relatively steady in recent weeks. The share of respondents who say the country is on the right track is at about 37%, fairly close to the long-term average across Trump’s second term in office. Conversely, 54.3% view the country as on the wrong track, also largely in line with the long-term average for this measure.
2026 Elections
Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate
We haven’t had any fresh polling for the March 3 GOP primary in Texas’s U.S. Senate race. The last new polls for this race came out in mid-December, at which time state Attorney General Ken Paxton held a 3.5-point advantage over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, 35.4%-31.9%. The third man in the race, Rep. Wesley Hunt, continues to hover in the low 20s. A May primary runoff continues to look quite likely.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.