Krishnamoorthi leads among Democrats in Illinois, but many remain undecided
Introducing a new polling average for Illinois’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate
Weekly Spotlight
As the 2026 election year heats up, DDHQ will generate new averages when we have enough surveys of a particular race to do so. This week, we present a new one for the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Illinois, where three major contenders aim to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin. Currently, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads with 36%, followed by Lt. Gov Juliana Stratton at 16%, then Rep. Robin Kelly with 10%. While Krishnamoorthi’s holds an edge, many voters remain undecided ahead of the March 17 primary, leaving the door open for Stratton or Kelly to close the gap.
Polls across the board give Krishnamoorthi a lead. An early December survey by Public Policy Polling on behalf of the pro-Stratton Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association found Krishnamoorthi ahead of Stratton by 12 percentage points, 32%-20%. An early January survey by Emerson College/WGN-TV — a neutral observer — found him up by 20 points over Stratton, 32%-12%. Meanwhile, the most recent survey was a GBAO poll conducted on behalf of Krishnamoorthi’s campaign, which found the congressman crushing Stratton by 25 points, 41%-16%, with Kelly right behind at 15%.
As noted in our recent article highlighting 10 races to watch early in 2026, Krishnamoorthi is in the driver’s seat right now. Having far more campaign cash than his rivals, he has mostly had the airwaves to himself to promote his candidacy. In mid-January, AdImpact reported that Krishnamoorthi has booked 97% of the millions in dollars of ad buys already made in this race.
Nonetheless, Stratton in particular may have a chance of catching Krishnamoorthi. She has the support of Gov. JB Pritzker, whose deep billionaire pockets could provide ample outside support in the roughly 1.5 months to go in this race. As for Kelly, she recently introduced articles of impeachment against Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem — and that was before the recent ICE shooting death of Alex Pretti.
The stakes of this race are quite high because the nominee is likely to win in November. Outside of a victory during the 2010 Republican midterm wave, Democrats have won every U.S. Senate election in Illinois in the 21st century — typically by double digits.
Important national averages
President Donald Trump’s job approval
President Trump continues to earn his worst job approval marks of his second term. His approval rating has hit a new low of 41%, while his disapproval rating has now surpassed 56%.
Although Republicans continue to overwhelmingly approve of Trump’s performance, his standing among Democrats and, particularly, independents, has deteriorated further. Democrats have long held very negative attitudes toward Trump, but a new high of 92% disapprove of his job performance, while only about 7% approve. Meanwhile, 64% of independents disapprove of Trump’s job performance and only 30% approve, matching his worst marks among that group in his second term.
While Trump has moved away from his unpopular focus on Greenland, he continues to face scrutiny over ICE’s operations in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Polls testing ICE’s standing and Trump’s handling of immigration have worsened in recent weeks, hobbling one of Trump’s traditional issue strengths. And most surveys are not new enough to have accounted for possible further shifts following the latest ICE shooting in Minnesota.
Generic Congressional Ballot
As has been the case for much of the past seven months, Democrats hold an advantage in DDHQ’s generic ballot average. They currently lead Republicans by 5 points, 45%-40%.
One thing to watch moving forward will be to what extent independents line up behind Democrats as we get closer to the midterms. In our crosstab averages, independents currently prefer Democrats by about 16 points, 41%-25%. That leaves many undecided voters, but it’s worth remembering that less partisan voters are less likely to turn out in a lower-turnout midterm election than more partisan voters.
However, should independents prefer Democrats by this kind of margin come November, a blue wave might result. After all, in 2022, exit polls found independents split about evenly in what was broadly a more favorable year for the GOP with President Joe Biden in the White House. Republicans need voters to start feeling better about the president’s performance and the economy to narrow this gap among independents.
Right Track/Wrong Track
Americans continue to hold fairly negative attitudes about the state of the country. In DDHQ’s average, just shy of 58% said the country was on the wrong track, while slightly more than 36% said it was on the right track.
If there is a silver lining for Trump and the GOP, it’s that this measure has not worsened to the same degree as the president’s approval. That could signal an increasing alignment between respondents who say the country is on the wrong track and who say they disapprove of the president. This could be true at least among independents, who are not as polarized about Trump and the state of things as Democrats (negative) and Republicans (positive) tend to be. This would mean there are fewer “wrong tracker” independents who still approve of the president’s performance.
2026 Elections
South Carolina Governor: Republican Primary
In last week’s memo, we debuted our polling average for South Carolina’s GOP primary for governor. The broad picture remains the same: Not one of the four principal candidates is polling north of 20%, making a primary runoff quite likely.
Still, a new survey from Trafalgar Group improved Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette’s position to some extent. She narrowly led the Trafalgar poll by 1 point over state Attorney General Alan Wilson, 22%-20%, with Rep. Nancy Mace close behind with 17%. Our average now has Wilson, Mace, and Evette all clumped between 17% and 19%, with Rep. Ralph Norman in fourth with 10%.
Texas U.S. Senate: Republican Primary
The Republican primary in Texas’s U.S. Senate race continues to show a close race between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton now leads Cornyn by about 3 points, 32%-29%, with Rep. Wesley Hunt running in third with 16%.
After a month without any new polling in this race, Emerson College/Nexstar released a new survey in mid-January that found Paxton up about 30%-26% over Cornyn, with Hunt earning about 16%. That poll did not dramatically change what we know about this race, which is that support is fragmented enough across the three major contenders that a primary runoff is quite likely.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.