🗳️ 6 races to watch in Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma & D.C.
The biggest contests are Republican runoffs for U.S. Senate and governor in Georgia and Alabama
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Podcast Mailbag: Ask a question that I’ll answer on an upcoming podcast episode!
The Frontrunner: We dive into six races to watch on Tuesday across three states and D.C. On Tuesday, make sure to watch our livestream coverage of all the June 16 primary action starting at 8 p.m. Eastern. You can watch on X, YouTube, or Substack.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
✉️ Podcast Mailbag ☎️
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
6 races to watch in 4 states on June 16
Quick summary:
Republicans have competitive primary runoffs to decide U.S. Senate nominees in Georgia and Alabama. The Georgia winner will face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in the fall, while the Alabama victor will be a heavy favorite to be the solidly Republican state’s next senator.
The GOP also has very close gubernatorial nomination contests in Georgia and Oklahoma. In Georgia, the primary runoff looks to be on a knife’s edge, while the Oklahoma primary looks certain to go to a runoff — but which two candidates will advance?
Democrats have a competitive primary for mayor in the District of Columbia. The contest has two leading candidates, with the winner almost certain to become the dark-blue city’s next leader.
Three states and the District of Columbia hold primaries or primary runoffs on Tuesday. The most-watched contests are likely the runoff elections in Alabama and Georgia, where Republicans in both states must decide their nominees for U.S. Senate and/or governor. But Oklahoma also holds its regular primary for state and federal offices, including governor, while D.C. Democrats will nominate the city’s likely next mayor.
Georgia
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; governor
Of the contests happening on June 16, none will be bigger in November than Georgia’s U.S. Senate race. Tomorrow, Republicans will decide their nominee to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in a runoff between Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley. On Sunday morning, President Donald Trump endorsed Collins, who was already favored to win.
Collins led Dooley about 40%-30% in the May 19 primary vote, and his edge seems more likely than not to hold up in the runoff. An average of four runoff polls conducted since late May found Collins leading Dooley by 11 percentage points, 52%-41%. However, the last poll from InsiderAdvantage showed a much closer race, so a Dooley surprise can’t be ruled out.
In some ways, it’s surprising that Trump waited so long to endorse Collins. Dooley is a close ally of Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who earned Trump’s enmity after the 2020 presidential election by not supporting Trump’s unfounded claims that the Georgia result was stolen from him. Collins has positioned himself as a strongly MAGA-aligned candidate, whereas Dooley has focused more on portraying himself as a conservative outsider willing to take on Washington. Following Trump’s endorsement, Dooley argued that Collins cannot defeat Ossoff, meaning a runoff vote for Collins was effectively a vote for Ossoff.
Another sign that Dooley is an underdog is the lack of outside backing he has received from Kemp’s network in the runoff. The Kemp-affiliated Hardworking Americans Inc. spent $4.0 million in the primary to help Dooley advance to the runoff, but has spent just $175,000 since. Another group, Georgia Values, has spent $845,000 against Collins. If Dooley comes up just short, the decrease in outside support will loom large.
Speaking of Kemp, he weighed in on Georgia’s Republican primary runoff for governor on Sunday evening. The term-limited incumbent endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the race to succeed him, snubbing billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson. Jones, who led about 38%-33% over Jackson in the primary vote on May 19, now has endorsements from both Trump and the sitting governor.
Yet it remains to be seen if support from different wings of the GOP will be enough for Jones to overcome Jackson’s outsider bid. In five surveys conducted since the primary, Jones and Jackson are effectively tied at around 45%.
The two most recent surveys from Cygnal and InsiderAdvantage do suggest Jackson may have moved ahead of Jones, at least before Kemp’s endorsement. Cygnal’s analysis suggests that Jackson might have more appeal among more on-the-fence voters, many of whom backed the less MAGA-inclined candidates who won more than a quarter of the primary vote — Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (15%) and Attorney General Chris Carr (12%).
Jackson’s appeal has rested on two things: his wealth and ability to project a Trump-esque profile as an anti-establishment businessman outsider. Across the primary and runoff, Jackson has spent about $90 million on ads, according to AdImpact. That’s more than twice as much as the $38 million Jones’s campaign has spent. On top of this, outside groups have spent close to $22 million attacking Jones, giving pro-Jackson/anti-Jones spending around a three-to-one advantage.
Still, Jones was closer to 50% in the primary and now has public support from both Trump and Kemp. Just ahead of the election, Trump reiterated his support for Jones via a tele-rally, though he did not campaign in person for the lieutenant governor. This race looks like a toss-up, with the winner set to face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, in a highly-competitive general election.
Alabama
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate
Another Trump-backed candidate is battling to win Alabama’s Republican primary runoff for the U.S. Senate seat left open by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor. In the May 19 primary vote, Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore led former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson 39%-26%, seemingly making him the favorite to win the GOP nod.
However, the limited polling we have points to a race that is very much up for grabs. Tellingly, the final two surveys of the race — the only ones conducted in June — found Moore ahead by 9 points (co/efficient) or Hudson ahead by 5 points (Strategy Management).
Moore certainly has enjoyed a financial edge in the runoff over Hudson. He raised $481,000 to Hudson’s $231,000 in the pre-runoff filing period from April 30 to May 27. And more importantly, the crypto-aligned Defend American Jobs and Club for Growth-affiliated Alabama Freedom Fund have spent close to $8 million in the runoff to support Moore or oppose Hudson. By comparison, the Alabama Conservatives super PAC has spent a bit less than $700,000 to support Hudson.
To close out the campaign, the pro-Hudson Alabama Conservatives group has sparked a fight over Moore’s military service record. The outfit has run an ad claiming that Moore perpetrated stolen valor by claiming he had served in combat, saying he had been in “combat boots.” The Pro-Moore Alabama Freedom Fund countered with its own ad claiming that Hudson was lying and that Moore never claimed to have served in combat. But Moore may have further amplified the issue by threatening to sue multiple media outlets for even asking questions about his service record.
The stakes are certainly high, as the GOP runoff winner will very likely be the next senator from firmly red Alabama. Democrats have their own primary runoff between attorney Everett Wess and criminal justice advocate Dakarai Larriett, but either Democrat will be a clear underdog in November.
Oklahoma
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: Governor; 1st Congressional District
With Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt term-limited, Oklahoma’s highest-profile primary is the GOP race for governor. This five-candidate contest is almost certain to go to an Aug. 25 runoff.
The leading contender may now be Mike Mazzei, a former state senator and Oklahoma budget secretary who unexpectedly earned Trump’s endorsement at the end of May. The only public poll conducted post-endorsement (so far), from JMC Analytics, found Mazzei leading with 26%. Four other contenders are fighting to join him: Attorney General Gentner Drummond (21% in the JMC poll), former state Sen. Jake Merrick (12%), former Oklahoma Secretary of Public Safety Chip Keating (the son of former Gov. Frank Keating, he had 12%), and former state House Speaker Charles McCall (8%).
But Trump’s endorsement has continued to dominate headlines after it came to light that Mazzei’s campaign had paid almost $70,000 to the firm of political consultant Roger Stone, who is close to Trump. This revelation has raised accusations of pay-to-play politics. More broadly, Mazzei has led the way in fundraising, thanks mainly to more than $10 million in self-funding. He’s far from alone on this score, though, as four of the five contenders have loaned their campaigns about $22 million in total.
The other contest to watch in Oklahoma is the Republican primary for the Tulsa-based 1st Congressional District. The seat is open because of GOP Rep. Kevin Hern’s candidacy for the state’s U.S. Senate race, in which Hern is the prohibitive favorite. The solidly red U.S. House seat has attracted a huge field of GOP contenders, making an August runoff also a near certainty here.
The leading candidates are probably pastor Jackson Lahmeyer and state Rep. Mark Tedford. Lahmeyer founded the group Pastors for Trump and previously ran for U.S. Senate in 2022. And in early May, he earned Trump’s endorsement, potentially giving him an edge in a crowded race. Meanwhile, Tedford is the leading elected official in the race, and he’s pitched himself as a natural successor to Hern, a fellow businessman.
In the fundraising battle, Tedford has led the way with $1.4 million as of May 27 ($1.1 million from his own pocket), compared with $350,000 for Lahmeyer ($93,000 self-funded). However, Lahmeyer also has the backing of the Club for Growth, whose campaign arm has deployed $479,000 to support his campaign. Other candidates to watch include Corporation Commissioner Kim David, who is a former party leader in the state Senate, and self-funding businessman Nathan Butterfield.
District of Columbia
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: Mayor
Washington, D.C. is as blue as it gets, so the Democratic primary for mayor will effectively decide who will succeed outgoing Mayor Muriel Bowser. The seven-candidate race will likely be won by one of two candidates: City Councilmember Janeese Lewis George or former City Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie.
The race has ideological dimensions, with Lewis George, a democratic socialist, facing the more moderate McDuffie. She’s focused on affordability and reform, while McDuffie has argued he would be stronger on keeping the city safe and business thriving. Trump looms over this race, too, as he has threatened to assert more federal control over the city if Lewis George wins.
The only two public surveys of the race have found Lewis Georgie leading, though not by much. And complicating things will be ranked-choice voting, which the District will utilize for the first time. That makes for an unpredictable outcome, and one that will take a few days to determine.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ’s Votes portal, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
June 16
Alabama primary runoff (including U.S. Senate)
Georgia primary runoff (including U.S. Senate and Governor)
Oklahoma primary (including Governor)
District of Columbia primary (including Mayor)
CA-14 special election (likely runoff in August)
June 23
June 30
Colorado primary (including Governor & U.S. Senate)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.
Who is more likely to win for GA senate GOP runoff? AL governor GOP runoff?