🗳️ 13 races to watch in California, Iowa, New Jersey & elsewhere
A massive June 2 primary election slate features big races in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: We dive into 13 races to watch on Tuesday across the six states holding their regular primaries. On Tuesday, make sure to watch our livestream coverage of all the June 2 primary action starting at 9 p.m. Eastern. You can watch on X, YouTube, or Substack.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
Presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner faces a new damaging story in Maine’s critical Senate race. A Wall Street Journal story reported that Platner previously sent sexually explicit texts to women who were not his wife. His wife had disclosed the texts to campaign higher-ups just as Platner started his campaign, looking to gauge the risk they posed to his candidacy. Platner’s wife defended the candidate, expressing anger at the former aide who revealed the info.
President Donald Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in South Carolina’s crowded GOP primary for governor. With no candidate polling much above 20%, Trump’s support could help Evette separate herself from the rest of the field. However, if no candidates drop out, Evette could still struggle to win an outright majority to avoid a runoff.
Also in South Carolina, the state Senate voted against moving forward with congressional redistricting before the 2026 election. The chamber opted against a redraw despite being controlled by Republicans. The decision preserves the heavily Democratic 6th District held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn for at least one more election.
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
13 races to watch in 6 states on June 2
Quick summary:
California, Iowa, New Mexico, and South Dakota all host high-stakes gubernatorial primaries on Tuesday. Iowa also has a key Democratic primary for U.S. Senate that could help determine how competitive the seat is in the fall.
Voters will pick nominees in many competitive congressional districts that will help decide control of the U.S. House in November. These include California’s 22nd and 48th districts, New Jersey’s 7th District, and Montana’s 1st District.
Los Angeles’s mayoral race also looms as a much-watched local election. Incumbent Karen Bass is unpopular, but she may advance to the general election — potentially against reality TV star Spencer Pratt.
June 2 kicks off a busy month of elections. California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota all host primary races on Tuesday. These states have fascinating nomination contests that exemplify some of the internal discord we see within each party. And some of the primary picks could have consequences for how competitive a state or district is come November. Without further ado, let’s jump into 13 races to watch tomorrow.
New Jersey
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 7th and 12th congressional districts
New Jersey’s most competitive contest this fall will likely be the 7th District, where Republican Tom Kean Jr. is defending a seat that President Donald Trump only carried 50%-49%. A big question mark is Kean himself: The congressman has gone missing for nearly three months, failing to cast any votes and making no public appearances while dealing with an undisclosed medical issue. Still, Kean has told reporters that he will fully recover and is still running for reelection (he’s unopposed for renomination).
That leads to the other unknown: Who will Democrats nominate? The favorite is Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot. (If that sounds strangely familiar, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill also piloted Navy choppers.) Bennett had raised $2.9 million as of May 13 and enjoys endorsements from four of the district’s six county party committees. VoteVets, which supports Democrats with military or national security backgrounds, has also boosted Bennett with $1.3 million in outside support. The only independent poll of the race, a mid-May survey from Insider NJ/StimSight, found her leading with 36%.
Yet that survey found the other Democrats within shouting distance: Businessman Brian Varela attracted 20%, while physician Tina Shah and former Small Business Administration chief Michael Roth each garnered 19%. All three have self-funded a great deal, raising between $1.2 and $2.1 million. And they could benefit from GOP meddling targeting Bennett. Real Change PAC, a shadowy super PAC connected to Republicans, has spent around $650,000 on ads and mailers to oppose Bennett.
Democrats also have a big primary in the solidly blue 12th District, where Democratic Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman is retiring. A whopping 13 candidates are on the ballot. The frontrunner is plastic surgeon Adam Hamawy, a progressive former Army physician who saved the life of now-Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois in Iraq (she’s endorsed him). He leads the field with $1.0 million raised and has benefited from $1.6 million in outside support from American Priorities, a super PAC that supports progressive Democrats who are critical of Israel.
Still, the Egyptian-born Hamawy has attracted scrutiny over some connections from his past. This includes volunteering for a medical association in Bosnia in the mid-1990s that later was found to have ties to Al-Qaida, and a relationship with Omar Abdel-Rahman, known as “The Blind Sheikh,” who was convicted for his role in the 1993 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.
Hamawy’s foremost opponent may be former state Working Family Party leader Sue Altman, a fellow progressive who lost in 2024 against Kean as the 7th District Democratic nominee. Helpfully for Hamawy, local county organizations split their support among four other candidates.
South Dakota
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern in eastern half of state, 9:00 p.m. in western half
Top races to watch: Governor
One of the more fascinating races Tuesday night is South Dakota’s Republican primary for governor. Hanging over the contest is the possibility that it could go to a July 28 runoff. This would be the state’s first since it established runoffs in 1985 for gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House primaries in which no candidate won at least 35%. (Prior to 1985, party conventions chose nominees in such circumstances.)
A crowded primary featuring four high-profile contenders is driving the 2026 runoff scenario. One is incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden, who succeeded to the post after Trump appointed then-Gov. Kristi Noem to his Cabinet in early 2025. But Rhoden faces strong campaigns from Rep. Dusty Johnson, state House Speaker Jon Hansen, and businessman Tony Doeden.
Johnson has a sizable fundraising advantage, but he is viewed with suspicion by some conservatives. After all, he once led the House’s center-right Main Street Caucus and is a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Johnson’s relative weakness has left an opening for the other three contenders. Two recent surveys from Emerson College/KELO and Meeting Street Insights each found all four candidates polling roughly between 15 and 25%.
In mid-May, a leaked memo from a consultant for Rhoden’s campaign argued that the incumbent could win a runoff against Johnson by attracting the “anti-establishment populists” backing Doeden’s insurgent campaign. But it remains to be seen which two might make a potential runoff — or if the primary leader can win outright by surpassing the 35% threshold.
Iowa
Polls close: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; governor
In Iowa, Democrats have a primary between state Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls for the U.S. Senate seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. The winner will likely face U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson, the overwhelming favorite in the GOP primary. The Senate math makes this a key race: Democrats need a net gain of four seats, so they will need to compete in a number of red-leaning states like Iowa.
Some establishment Democrats argue Turek is more electable. Born with spina bifida, Turek is a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, and he’s twice won a Trump-leaning state House district. For his part, Wahls represents a dark-blue seat around Iowa City, the most heavily Democratic turf in Iowa. Raised by lesbian parents, Wahls came to prominence in 2011 as a 19-year old college student, when his testimony against a proposed gay marriage ban in Iowa’s legislature went viral.
The two candidates have raised similar amounts, but Turek’s outside support from VoteVets — nearly $10 million — could be a difference-maker. Wahls has argued that money is linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, which Schumer and VoteVets deny. The most recent surveys of the race find Turek leading Wahls, though with caveat that each was sponsored by VoteVets or Turek’s campaign. While Turek is not a veteran, his spina bifida is a byproduct of his father’s exposure to Agent Orange while serving in the Vietnam War.
Republicans have their own competitive primary in Iowa’s race for governor. Rep. Randy Feenstra had long been viewed as the leading GOP contender, but that status was thrown into question last week when JMC Analytics and Polling released a survey that found him narrowly trailing businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, 27%-24%.
Not long after the poll’s publication, Trump endorsed Feenstra to potentially shore up the congressman’s support. Still, this may not guarantee a Feenstra victory. Pre-primary fundraising reports in mid-May found Lahn had attracted more donor money in 2026 than Feenstra, $980,000 to $739,000. Lahn’s surge has probably been aided by the skepticism with which some conservatives have viewed Feenstra ever since he successfully primaried Rep. Steve King in 2020. After all, like South Dakota’s Dusty Johnson, Feenstra is a member of the center-right Main Street Caucus.
But in a five-way race, Lahn may struggle to coalesce sufficient support to overtake Feenstra. This, plus Trump’s endorsement, could help Feenstra win with a plurality. Yet at the same time, Feestra cannot afford for the vote to be too fragmented. That’s because, like South Dakota, Iowa has a 35% support threshold in its primaries. Yet instead of a runoff, the nominee would be chosen by Iowa’s June 13 state GOP convention — a venue that could favor a candidate to Feenstra’s right. The eventual Republican nominee will face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand, who is unopposed for his party’s nomination.
New Mexico
Polls close: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: Governor
With Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited, New Mexico will elect a new governor in 2026. The blue-leaning Land of Enchantment will likely elect another Democrat, so the big race is the party’s gubernatorial primary between former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. If Haaland wins the primary and then the general, she would make history as the first Native American woman governor in U.S. history.
Haaland looks favored, based on fundraising and limited polling. Haaland has outraised Bregman about three-to-one, $12 million to $4.1 million. Meanwhile, she held double-digit leads in two April polls: 52%-30% in an Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. survey and 40%-24% in an KRQE News 13/Emerson College poll. However, that means there have been no new public polls in more than a month, so things may have changed.
Montana
Polls close: 10:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 1st Congressional District
The main event in Montana is the 1st District, which is open due to the retirement of Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke. The GOP is favored to hold this Trump +12 seat, but Democrats are hoping that a favorable midterm and stronger Democratic performance down the ballot could boost their chances. Consider this data from our Votes precinct map: Even as Zinke won reelection by 8 points in 2024, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester narrowly carried this seat while losing reelection statewide.
Democrats look to have the more competitive primary. Of the four candidates, the leading fundraisers are smokejumper Sam Forstag and 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, who have each raised about $700,000. Meanwhile, Republicans look likely to nominate conservative radio host Aaron Flint, who has Trump’s endorsement and leads the field in fundraising. Still, Flint does have to defeat Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state legislator Al “Doc” Olszewski, the latter of whom only narrowly lost to Zinke in this seat’s 2022 GOP primary.
California
Polls close: 11:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 11th, 22nd, 40th, 48th congressional districts; governor; Los Angeles mayor
California is “the granddaddy of them all” on June 2, to borrow a phrase used to describe the Pasadena-based Rose Bowl. A bevy of races are on the Golden State docket, six of which we will cover here. Remember that most California primaries use the top-two system, in which all candidates run together regardless of party, all voters can participate regardless of party registration, and the top-two vote-getters advance. Also, in part because California mostly votes by mail, the state also takes a long time to count — it could be days or weeks before we know some outcomes.
The most-watched contest is California’s top-two primary for governor. Earlier in 2026, the crowded field of Democratic candidates raised the possibility that Democratic voters would split across so many options that GOP candidates would grab first and second — a “lockout” guaranteeing a Republican win in November. Then Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, which helped consolidate more GOP voters behind him. And then Rep. Eric Swalwell, the leading Democratic aspirant, dropped out following a series of sexual misconduct allegations.
Now the primary looks likely to advance some combination of two candidates from among the three leading names. That would mean either Hilton plus one Democrat, or both of the main Democratic candidates: former Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra and Tom Steyer, a hedge fund billionaire and 2020 presidential candidate. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Becerra and Hilton are each at about 23-24%, while Steyer is in third with 19%. The next-closest contender is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other principal GOP candidate, with 11%.
That Steyer is not easily advancing illustrates that money is not the be-all, end-all for campaign success. As of May 29, Steyer had spent or reserved campaign ads worth $201 million, according to AdImpact. Almost all of this spending has come from Steyer’s own pocket. Yet Steyer’s progressive pitch — the billionaire has called himself a “class traitor” — has not quite ensured his advancement on June 2.
Meanwhile, Becerra looked like an also-ran before Swalwell withdrew. But in the vacuum that followed, voters and some interest groups turned to his familiar face. Becerra spent almost all of the past 35 years in political office, most recently in President Joe Biden’s Cabinet. His appeal has outrun the ad spending supporting him — $24 million, a far cry from what Steyer has doled out. Becerra could become the first Latino elected as California governor. (Romualdo Pacheco briefly served as governor for 10 months in 1875, but was not elected to that position.)
Note that the gubernatorial primary’s volatility could significantly influence California’s vote count trend in the days following the primary. Looking at returned ballot figures by party, it’s evident that many Democrats held off on casting their ballots until the last minute. That means later-counted votes will be disproportionately Democratic, producing a “red mirage” in which early-counted votes will be more Republican than the final tally. As more votes are counted, Democratic candidates will gain to varying degrees. That might allow Becerra and Steyer to both eventually surpass Hilton, and makes it possible that Democrats will avoid lockouts in races in which the early tallies show two Republicans advancing.
Moving on, voters in Los Angeles will also vote for mayor on Tuesday. In what is technically a nonpartisan election, a candidate can win outright in the primary by garnering majority support. But such an outcome looks extremely unlikely. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, incumbent Karen Bass leads with 26%, followed by reality TV personality Spencer Pratt at 18%, and Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 16%. Bass and Raman are Democrats, while Pratt is a Republican.
Any incumbent polling as poorly as Bass clearly has problems. Most conspicuously, she drew criticism for her preparation and response to the wildfires that hammered the city in January 2025. That event sparked Pratt’s candidacy, as the fires destroyed his home. Pratt’s rise has been punctuated by a number of viral AI-generated ads promoting his candidacy. These include a Star Wars-themed clip of Pratt fighting a lightsaber battle against Bass dressed like Darth Vader. Meanwhile, Raman’s democratic socialist candidacy has drawn support from Bass’s left.
Despite her unpopularity, Bass looks most likely to advance out of the primary. In deep-blue Los Angeles, she hopes to be joined by Pratt, whose candidacy has caught fire with conservative media but who, as a Republican, would be a huge underdog one-on-one against a Democrat. Tellingly, the Bass-allied Los Angeles County Federation of Labor has run an ad ostensibly attacking Pratt as too conservative. But the ad really aims to better consolidate Republican support around Pratt, thereby increasing the likelihood that Bass faces Pratt instead of Raman in November.
Turning to congressional primaries, the 22nd District held by Republican Rep. David Valadao could have California’s most competitive general election. When Democrats redrew the state’s U.S. House map last year, they made this seat bluer in the hopes of defeating Valadao. But progressive and more moderate Democrats are tussling over whom to support against Valadao. State Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician, is the choice of the party’s establishment, as evidenced by her pre-primary endorsement from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But progressives are backing political science professor Randy Villegas.
The two candidates have fundraised similarly, so Bain’s greater outside support may boost her. All told, groups have forked over $5.2 million to help Bain versus $2.7 million to aid Villegas. Tellingly, the campaign arms of the center-left New Democrats and moderate Blue Dogs have spent a combined $1.4 million on Bain’s behalf. Meanwhile, Democratic Majority for Israel has spent $500,000 opposing Villegas, an Israel critic. Conversely, progressive groups like the Working Families Party, Leaders We Deserve, and American Priorities have doled out $1.6 million to boost Villegas. This race also features some GOP meddling: CLF, the GOP’s main vehicle for outside spending in House races, has spent $86,000 ostensibly opposing Villegas, but with the goal of actually increasing his support by presenting him as “too liberal.”
Next up is the 48th District, a Southern California seat left open by Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s retirement. This is a top Democratic target after redistricting made it into a seat then-Vice President Kamala Harris would have carried by 3 points in 2024. Republicans have rallied behind San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, so the primary will determine which Democrat faces Desmond in November. Three Democrats are in the mix: past congressional candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, and businessman Brandon Riker.
Campa-Najjar, who lost congressional races in 2018 and 2020, is the more progressive choice. But he does have support from much of California’s congressional delegation, and, as a Naval reservist, has garnered outside support from VoteVets. Von Wilpert is the main moderate option, and she’s benefited from $5.3 million in outside spending on her behalf, compared with $1.3 million aiding Campa-Najjar. Most notably, Democratic Majority for Israel has helped her by spending $2 million against Campa-Najjar, a progressive critic of Israel. For his part, Riker leads in fundraising thanks to more than $1 million in self-funding, but he’s received little outside backing.
We will close with a couple of safe seats with fascinating primaries. First, voters in the San Francisco-based 11th District will choose candidates in the race to succeed retiring former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. The deep-blue seat could send two Democrats to the general election, and three realistically look in contention: state Sen. Scott Wiener, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, and wealthy former software engineer Saikat Chakrabarti.
Polls suggest that Wiener is likely to finish first, but Chan and Chakrabarti look to be in a close contest for second place. In a potential series of past-versus-future connections, Chan has Pelosi’s endorsement while Chakrabarti managed now-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 primary campaign that brought the New York member onto the political scene.
Meanwhile, Republicans have their own intraparty clash in the new 40th District in Southern California. The Democratic-drawn map made this seat a Republican vote sink, precipitating a highly competitive matchup between two GOP incumbents: Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert. Although Kim has outraised Calvert $8.2 million to $5.7 million, two outside groups have spent $4.5 million opposing her.
One wrinkle is the unclear goal of California Blue PAC, a group that has spent nearly $700,000 supporting art dealer Esther Kim-Varet, the leading Democrat in the race. The group may be aiming to help one of the Republicans advance to the general with Kim-Varet, likely ensuring the GOP incumbent’s reelection, rather than possibly have both Kim and Calvert move on.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ’s Votes portal, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
June 2
June 9
Maine primary (including U.S. Senate)
Nevada primary (including governor)
North Dakota primary (including ND-AL)
South Carolina primary (including governor)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.