❓What happened last night: California continues counting & Iowa's governor upset
A look at the primary results in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota
Last night was an extremely busy evening, with six states holding their regular primaries. Let’s review what happened in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
California
We will not know for many days which candidates advanced in some of California’s most competitive top-two primaries. But here are where things stood as of 9 a.m. Eastern:
In the primary for governor, Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton led the crowded field with 28%, based on 62% of the expected vote reporting. Hilton was followed by two Democrats, former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra with 25% and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer with around 20%. In fourth was Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, with 11%. No other candidate had more than 5%.
Decision Desk HQ has not projected which two candidates will advance to the November general election. Although election officials had tallied about 5 million votes as of 9 a.m. Eastern, we expect roughly 3 million more votes to be tabulated. Naturally, this makes for a great deal of uncertainty. And because many registered Democrats waited until the last minute to vote due to the volatile gubernatorial race, we expect the remaining votes to be somewhat more Democratic-leaning. That could enable Becerra to pass Hilton and perhaps allow Steyer to also catch the leading Republican.
Now, we have been able to project that incumbent Mayor Karen Bass will advance to the general election in Los Angeles’s mayoral race. As of 9 a.m., she had 35% of the vote. The other two candidates fighting for a November spot are former TV reality star Spencer Pratt (30%) and City Councilmember Nithya Raman (22%). Pratt appears most likely to advance, but the potential blue trend trend in the outstanding votes holds out the possibility that the democratic socialist Raman could overtake him.
California also had a congressional special election in the 1st District, left vacant by the death of Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa. California’s redistricting made this seat significantly bluer, but the special election was for the remainder of the term under the seat’s old red-leaning lines. Decision Desk HQ has projected that Republican state Assemblymember James Gallagher will win; at 9 a.m., he had 62% with 84% of the expected vote reporting. This put him above the 50% win threshold per California special election law, meaning no runoff will be needed. Gallagher will add a precious GOP vote to the party’s narrow U.S. House majority.
In the top-two primary for the 1st District’s general election — using the new lines — Decision Desk HQ projected that Gallagher will advance along with Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire. But the Democrat will be favored to win the redrawn seat, which then-Vice President Kamala Harris would have won by 12 points in 2024.
Let’s do a rundown of other California primaries in which Decision Desk HQ has projected at least one candidate to advance:
Republican Rep. David Valadao (45%) will advance out of the highly-competitive 22nd District in the Central Valley, but it remains to be seen which Democrat he will face: With 67% of the expected vote reporting, progressive professor Randy Villegas had 30% while more moderate state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains had 26%.
The open 48th District in Southern California is another Democratic redistricting target. With 64% of the expected vote reporting, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (42%) has clinched a spot in the general. Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert (19%) led a crowded field for the second spot, ahead of fellow Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar (10%).
In the San Francisco-based 11th District held by retiring Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, Democratic state Sen. Scott Wiener (41%) advanced to the general election. We still have to see which other Democrat will face him in November. With 47% of the expected vote reporting, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan — who has Pelosi’s endorsement — had 29% and wealthy former software engineer Saikat Chakrabarti had 15%.
The California redraw also compelled fellow Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim to run against each other in the new red-leaning 40th District. With 62% of the expected vote reporting, Calvert (36%) is projected to advance, but Kim (22%) is only a bit ahead of Democrat Esther Kim-Varet (16%).
In the new 4th District, longtime Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson will advance to the general election. But it remains to be seen if he will be joined by Ray Riehle, the leading Republican, or Eric Jones, the other notable Democrat in the race.
In the dark-blue Bay Area 14th District left behind by now-resigned ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell, Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab clinched a spot in the November election. But it’s unclear whom she will face among a group of four other contenders, who each have about 11% to 16% of the vote (with 51% of the expected vote reporting).
In the 26th District north of Los Angeles, Democratic state Assemblymember Jacqui Irwin has advanced to the general election. She will be favored against her eventual general election opponent, likely one of three Republicans garnering between 9% and 22% (with 61% of the expected vote reporting).
In the open 38th District, former Labor Secretary and ex-Rep. Hilda Solis took one step closer to returning to the House. She is projected to advance to the November election with Republican Pedro Casas, where Solis will be favored.
Iowa
The upset of the night came in Iowa’s Republican primary for governor. Despite having President Donald Trump’s endorsement, longstanding favorite Rep. Randy Feenstra narrowly lost to businessman and farmer Zach Lahn. As of 9 a.m., Lahn led Feenstra 37.8%-37.0% to win the GOP nomination.
For months, Feenstra had looked like the GOP’s likely nominee in the race to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. But murmurs of dissatisfaction with his candidacy grew as the primary neared, despite Trump’s last-minute endorsement. In the election, Lahn did best across the Des Moines media market, including a 39%-30% edge in Polk County (Des Moines) proper. Feenstra did not do especially well on his home turf, the 4th Congressional District, in the western part of the state,
In November, Lahn will face Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand, who was unopposed in his primary. The more conservative Lahn’s victory may improve Sand’s chances of winning — Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted its rating from Lean Republican to Toss-up in response to Lahn’s win. At the time, Sand may have preferred to run against the known quantity that was Feenstra, who as a congressman also could be tagged as a creature of D.C.
Iowa’s most-watched race coming into the night was the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, left open by Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement. However, the result was anticlimactic: state Rep. Josh Turek handily defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls, 63%-37%. Turek won everywhere except some areas around Johnson County (Iowa City), Wahls’s home base.
Many Democratic leaders will be pleased with Turek’s win. They preferred him over Wahls due to Turek’s personal story — he’s a gold medal-winning Paralympian who was born with spina bifida — and track record winning in a red-leaning legislative seat. Still, Turek will start out as an underdog in the general election against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, who easily won the GOP primary.
New Jersey
The Garden State’s most competitive U.S. House seat will almost certainly be the 7th District, held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. In the Democratic primary, voters chose former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett to take on Kean. However, Kean has been out of the public eye for three months due to an undisclosed medical condition. The incumbent insists he will continue running for reelection — he was unopposed for renomination — but we could start hearing more chatter about a scenario in which he withdraws and the GOP chooses a replacement nominee.
In the solidly blue 12th District in Central Jersey — if such a region exists — plastic surgeon Adam Hamawy won the Democratic primary in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman. A progressive favorite, Hamawy won a very crowded race with just 28% of the vote; the vote was so fragmented that only one other candidate received more than 10%!
Montana
On May 19, Nebraska Democrats engineered a primary outcome that will likely allow independent Dan Osborn to face Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts in a one-on-one race. On Tuesday, Montana Democrats may have pulled off the same trick in the state’s U.S. Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Steve Daines. Decision Desk HQ projects that Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead will defeat former state Rep. Reilly Neill in Montana’s Democratic primary. At 9 a.m., Bankhead led Neill 44%-33% with 86% of the expected vote reporting.
The upshot is that Bankhead may withdraw from the race and allow Democrats to more easily coalesce around independent Seth Bodnar, a former Green Beret and president of the University of Montana. By contrast, Neill had insisted that she would remain in the race if she won. Bankhead raised almost no money for her race, but Progressive Vet PAC spent around $3 million to support her. The only tell about the group’s aim was the identity of its treasurer: Moffie Funk, a former Democratic state legislator who is connected to former Sen. Jon Tester, Montana’s most prominent Democrat and a Bodnar backer. Meanwhile, a group connected to Daines — More Jobs, Less Government — doled out $2 million to help Neill. No matter how the general election ballot shakes out, we know whom Republicans nominated: former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who had Daines’s support.
Montana’s 1st District could be competitive in the fall following the retirement of Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke. To defend the seat, Republicans nominated conservative radio host Aaron Flint, who had Trump’s endorsement. With 86% of the expected vote reporting, he had about 50% of the vote, well ahead of Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen’s second-place showing of 23%. Democrats had a closer race, though Decision Desk HQ projected at little after 9 a.m. Eastern that smokejumper and union leader Sam Forstag will win the primary. Forstag led 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse 37%-33%.
South Dakota
We love a little electoral history, and South Dakota’s Republican primary for governor provided it on Tuesday night. The Mount Rushmore State will hold its first-ever primary runoff on July 28 after no candidate won more than 35% in the highly-competitive four-way primary. Businessman Toby Doeden finished in first with not quite 31%, while incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden grabbed the other runoff spot with 25%. Rhoden is seeking a full term after taking over as governor following Trump’s appointment of then-Gov. Kristi Noem to his Cabinet in 2025.
South Dakota established runoffs in 1985 for gubernatorial, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House primaries, but this marks the first time a primary triggered one. Prior to that, party conventions decided nominations if no candidate surpassed 35% in a primary.
For second place, Rhoden just pipped Rep. Dusty Johnson, who finished with around 23%, and state House Speaker Jon Hansen, who garnered 21%. It’s unclear who will be favored between Rhoden and Doeden. However, the incumbent Rhoden might be a more attractive option for Johnson’s voters than the outsider populist Doeden. After all, Johnson is a self-described “pragmatic conservative.”
New Mexico
Speaking of history, New Mexico’s Democratic primary for governor set the stage for a groundbreaking result. Former Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland easily defeated Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, 72%-28%. Haaland will start the general election campaign as a favorite over Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who won the GOP primary. If Haaland does win, she will become the first Native American woman to ever be elected as a state governor.
Tester pulled it off and now the field is clear for Indy Bodner to win the Senate seat in MT!