⭐ 🤠 Can Ken Paxton win another runoff in Texas?
Political reporter Patrick Svitek looks back at Paxton's electoral history and what it says about Texas's 2026 GOP runoff for U.S. Senate
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🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner (GUEST POST): Veteran politics reporter Patrick Svitek looks at Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s past success in primary runoffs and what it can tell us about his 2026 runoff against Sen. John Cornyn.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
On Sunday, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign for California governor in the face of multiple allegations of sexual misconduct. Swalwell had been polling ahead of other Democratic contenders in California’s crowded top-two primary for governor. But on Friday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that a woman who had worked for Swalwell alleged that he had sexually assaulted her. His standing quickly collapsed after that. CNN reported allegations against Swalwell by the same former staffer and three other women, some of Swalwell’s top campaign aides quit, and many of his endorsers withdrew their support and called for him to drop out. The U.S. House of Representatives is now considering expelling Swalwell and the state of New York has opened an investigation into him over sexual assault allegations.
With House Republicans pushing a measure to expel Swalwell, House Democrats are also moving to force a vote to expel Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas. Gonzales faces a sexual misconduct investigation by the House Ethics Committee, and he recently abandoned his reelection bid in the wake of reports about explicit texts he had sent to an aide who later committed suicide. Two other scandal-tarred members from Florida, Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and GOP Rep. Cory Mills, could also face expulsion votes.
In international election news, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s right-wing, nationalist Fidesz Party lost its majority in Hungary’s parliamentary election on Sunday. The Tisza Party, a center-right and pro-European group led by Péter Magyar, decisively won the election. The contest was seen as a referendum on Hungary’s future and Orbán’s authoritarian approach during his 16 years as his nation’s leader. The final seat count has not been determined, but Tisza may have garnered two-thirds of all seats, which would allow it to amend the national constitution.
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
Ken Paxton’s runoff history and what it can tell us about his 2026 Senate campaign
By Patrick Svitek
Quick summary:
Longtime Texas politics reporter Patrick Svitek explores Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s history of success in runoffs. He won by sizable margins in both 2014 and 2022, and can use some of the same strategies against Sen. John Cornyn in Texas’s May 26 runoff for U.S. Senate.
As Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton looks to defeat Sen. John Cornyn for the Republican nomination in Texas’s U.S. Senate race, Paxton is drawing a lot of inspiration from the last two times he was in a primary runoff.
“I’ve never won by less than 30 points, and I don’t plan on starting now,” Paxton said in his March 3 primary night speech after neither he nor Cornyn won a majority to clinch the nomination. “The victory we’re going to secure in this runoff will be even sweeter than the last ones.”
The first runoff Paxton was referring to was in 2014, when he initially ran for attorney general — it was an open seat — and defeated state Rep. Dan Branch of Dallas by 27 percentage points. And the second runoff was in 2022, when Paxton sought a third term against Land Commissioner George P. Bush and triumphed by a wider margin — 36 points.
Those past runoffs are full of both similarities and differences that could help us better understand the current election.
Texas GOP runoffs tend to feature lower turnout that benefits candidates whom voters see as more conservative, a danger sign to incumbents challenged from their right. But not every runoff is the same, and Cornyn, for example, is hoping for unusually high turnout in this one and a more intense focus on Paxton’s history of scandals.
This is the first time, as a statewide officeholder, that Paxton finished second in a primary — albeit narrowly — on his way to a runoff, and it is the first time he did so as a challenger. On primary night, he compared himself to Sen. Ted Cruz, who came in second in his first primary for Senate back in 2012 before defeating the establishment favorite, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, in a runoff.
Of course, the biggest difference between then and now is the political dominance of President Donald Trump, whose endorsement could scramble all conventional wisdom in an election. He said the morning after the primary that he would make an endorsement “soon” but still has not decided between Cornyn and Paxton.
The prospect of a Trump endorsement has appeared to dim further as Republicans increasingly attack the Democratic nominee, James Talarico, as decisively too liberal for the state, undercutting Cornyn’s argument that he is uniquely positioned to defeat Talarico. Trump said in a social media post on March 22 that he believed “any human being running against” Talarico “would win.”
Let’s take a trip down memory lane and revisit those past runoffs that are giving Paxton so much optimism.
The 2014 runoff
In 2014, the attorney general’s office was open for the first time in a dozen years because the incumbent, Greg Abbott, was running for governor. The Republican primary drew three candidates: Paxton, a state senator from McKinney; Dan Branch, a state representative from Dallas; and Barry Smitherman, chairman of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the state’s oil and gas industry (and no longer oversees railroads).
Paxton was considered a serious candidate out of the gate. He was a star of the ascendant tea party movement and vowed to build on Abbott’s legacy of filing copious lawsuits against the federal government. Paxton’s campaign also emphasized a quasi-endorsement from Cruz, who was an increasingly hot commodity after his own runoff upset two years earlier.
Cruz offered praise for Paxton during a January speech in North Texas before the primary — remarks that Cruz’s aides said were not an endorsement but nonetheless found their way into multiple Paxton ads. One spot replayed Cruz’s remarks after a narrator said, “In the race for attorney general, there’s only one constitutional conservative like Ted Cruz.”
Paxton finished first in the primary, 11 points ahead of Branch.
About two months into the runoff, Paxton got his first taste of legal trouble amid a hotly contested race. The Texas State Securities Board issued a reprimand of Paxton and fined him $1,000 for soliciting investment clients two years earlier without registering with the state. Paxton waived his right to appeal, and his campaign said it was “pleased” to reach a resolution.
Branch ran an ad exclusively about the incident, extensively excerpting a local TV segment on it and asking whether Texans could “trust” Paxton to be the state’s top lawyer. Paxton’s commercials were more focused on painting an ideological contrast, criticizing Branch as a “liberal Republican” and reiterating Cruz’s preference for Paxton.
Paxton cruised past Branch in the runoff, 63% to 37% — just short of the 30-point margin Paxton claims to have always won by in runoffs.
Paxton had not only overcome the ethics controversy but also Branch’s fundraising advantage. Branch reported raising $2.8 million on a pre-runoff report; Paxton raised $1.9 million. Branch disclosed spending $3.5 million; Paxton spent $2.3 million.
Paxton won all but a handful of counties. The notable exceptions were Dallas County, Branch’s home base, which he narrowly carried, and bright-blue Travis County, home to Austin, which Branch won by 5 points.
The turnout rate in the primary was 9.4% of all registered voters. It dropped to 5.4% in the runoff.
The 2022 runoff
Paxton dodged any primary opposition in 2018, but four years later, his personal scandals had taken enough of a toll that three serious challengers stepped forward. They were Bush, Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, and Rep. Louie Gohmert.
The race initially centered on whether Bush, the last remaining member of his famous family in elected office, could refashion himself as a Trump-era Republican and maybe even get Trump’s endorsement. But Trump ended the speculation within weeks of Bush’s launch, endorsing Paxton in July 2021.
Gohmert made a late entrance as a far-right alternative to Paxton, but it was Guzman who gained traction toward the end, backed by big donations from the tort reform lobby. Paxton’s campaign launched an 11th-hour ad blitz against Guzman — less than a week before the primary — and successfully boxed her out, effectively picking Bush as a runoff opponent.
In the primary, Paxton got 43% of the vote, while Bush ran 20 points behind him. Guzman and Gohmert finished with about 18% and 17%, respectively.
Bush was exactly who Paxton’s campaign wanted. The contrast, to them, could not have been clearer: a Trump-endorsed conservative versus a challenger who embodied the last vestiges of the Texas GOP old guard. “Help me end the Bush dynasty,” Paxton said from the outset of the runoff.
The runoff opened with hype that Bush would savage Paxton over his legal problems. Paxton remained under indictment for state securities fraud charges and the FBI was reportedly investigating Paxton over claims by former aides that he abused his power to help a donor.
While some of Bush’s messaging took aim at Paxton, Bush had to balance it against his efforts to continue introducing himself to a skeptical GOP base. An April 2022 poll from the University of Texas found that 26% of Texas GOP voters had an unfavorable view of Bush, while just 7% said the same of Paxton.
The runoff was ultimately not that competitive. With minimal campaigning, Paxton crushed Bush, 68%-32%.
Paxton won just about every county. Travis County was again an outlier, giving Bush its vote by 7 points.
Again, Paxton romped despite being at a financial disadvantage. He raised $2 million on a pre-runoff report filed with the Texas Ethics Commission, while Bush collected $2.3 million and also spent a little more than Paxton did.
The turnout dropoff was also similar to what happened in 2014. The turnout rate in the primary was 11.2% of registered voters, while it slumped to 5.4% in the runoff.
What Paxton’s past runoffs could mean for 2026
The 2014 and 2022 runoffs show that Paxton can win when turnout is lower than it was in the primary and when he is at a financial disadvantage. But they also carry some deeper lessons that remain relevant today.
For starters, Paxton understands the power of high-profile endorsers who can help voters look past his vulnerabilities. It was Cruz in 2014 and Trump in 2022 — and Trump again this time, if Paxton has his way. (Interestingly, Cruz has kept more distance from Paxton in recent years, declining to get involved in his 2022 runoff as well as the current one.)
Paxton and his advisers also recognize the importance of having a runoff opponent who provides a strong contrast. They showed that in 2022 when they schemed to ensure Bush, not Guzman, advanced to the runoff. They showed it again in this year’s primary, when they unleashed a wave of negative ads against Rep. Wesley Hunt as it looked like he had a chance to make a runoff. Hunt, who ultimately finished a distant third, would have been a more complicated rival to face in a runoff given his pro-Trump credentials.
One big bet that Cornyn has made in the current race is that the Texas Republican primary runoff electorate has yet to see a well-funded advertising blitz highlighting all of Paxton’s scandals. “Judgment day is coming,” Cornyn said on primary night.
In a way, Cornyn is right. Paxton’s scandals had barely begun in the 2014 runoff, with the State Securities Board reprimand amounting to a slap on the wrist. And while Paxton’s problems had mounted by the time he faced Bush in 2022, Bush struggled to capitalize on them because he was a flawed messenger — disliked by 1 in 4 Republican voters — and therefore had to focus simultaneously on making a positive case for himself.
In other elections, such as the general elections after those runoffs, Paxton’s opponents were either too underfunded or unknown — or both — to fully execute the kind of all-out offensive that Cornyn has been promising. Only in 2018, amid a Democratic wave, did Paxton have a close general election result, winning 51%-47%.
The flip side, of course, is that Cornyn has already had nearly a year — and tens of millions of dollars at his disposal — to turn Paxton’s scandals into a political death sentence. Cornyn’s ads attacking Paxton over alleged infidelity were enough to prompt Paxton to counter with positive commercials featuring his daughter. But otherwise, Paxton’s standing with the GOP has proven durable. In University of Texas polling, the percentage of Republican voters who viewed him unfavorably actually decreased from December 2025 to February 2026, dipping from 22% to 18%.
Cornyn is also banking on higher turnout than usual in the runoff, boosted by the presence of other primaries that are in overtime. Other statewide primaries are in runoffs, which also happened in 2014 and 2022, but the key difference could be the quantity of congressional primary runoffs — nine on the Republican side. (The number was set to be even higher — 11 — before Rep. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio bowed out of his runoff after admitting to an extramarital affair and pastor Ryan Binkley conceded his runoff for an open seat in the Dallas area.)
“There’s simply just too much at stake for Texas voters to stay home, and I don’t expect them to stay home,” Cornyn said on primary night. “I expect a robust turnout. We’ll certainly be encouraging that.”
***
Patrick Svitek is a political reporter who has covered Texas politics extensively. He will soon begin working at CNN; previously, he worked at The Washington Post. Before that, he spent nine years at The Texas Tribune, most recently serving as its primary political correspondent. Before that, he was a reporter in the Houston Chronicle’s Austin bureau.
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At what point do Republican voters factor in Paxton’s infidelity? Does that mean that Cornyn’s attack adds won’t work on that topic!
Go vote plz