How redistricting in Maryland & Virginia could affect the midterms

Old Line State and Old Dominion Democrats have moved ahead with gerrymandered congressional maps that would flip GOP-held seats, but the plans face uncertain futures

Democrats in the Mid-Atlantic neighbors of Virginia and Maryland want to gerrymander their congressional maps to gain seats in the U.S. House. (Images for Virginia and Maryland from Famartin via Wikimedia, CC 4.0)

🍺 What’s on tap 🚰

Today’s newsletter features:

Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.

The Frontrunner: An analysis of the congressional map proposals put forward by Democrats in Virginia and Maryland.

Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.

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🔔 Opening Bell 🐏

Must-read items about elections and politics.

• As of Sunday, progressive Analilia Mejía led former Rep. Tom Malinowski by 868 votes in the Feb. 5 Democratic primary for New Jersey’s 11th District, which remains unprojected. Early on Election Night, former Rep. Tom Malinowski seemed to have a big enough advantage (mainly from mail ballots) to win. But a very strong Election Day showing by Mejía gave her an edge that could very well hold up once all votes are counted. A victory for Mejía would amount to a potentially prescient win for progressives over more establishment-aligned candidates ahead of the regular primaries for the 2026 midterms.

• On Sunday, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski told reporters that she would not run for governor. She had previously left the door open to a campaign for Alaska’s open-seat governorship. As it is, four sitting senators are running for governor, the most in any election cycle since 1913.

• Please subscribe to our Polling Memo! The weekly writeup, which now comes out on Tuesdays, features key trends based on DDHQ’s polling averages. If you’re already a subscriber to The Bellwether, you can receive the memo in your inbox by clicking on your account settings and opt to receive the Poll Memo (see the image below).

  

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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇

Democrats aim to gerrymander Virginia and Maryland

Quick summary:

• Virginia Democrats have proposed a congressional map that could elect 10 Democrats and one Republican in 2026. The map would establish eight solid or likely Democratic seats and two swingy seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris would have only narrowly carried in 2024. Still, Republicans have some hope of blocking the map, either through legal channels or at the ballot box.

• Democrats in Maryland are at an impasse after the state House passed a new congressional map that would likely elect eight Democrats and zero Republicans. Maryland state courts could rule against such a map as an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander, which has led some Democrats to oppose pursuing a new map amid the ongoing national redistricting fight.

The national redistricting conflict has shifted to the Mid-Atlantic theater. In Virginia and Maryland, Democratic-controlled state governments are pushing ahead with new maps that, if implemented, would very likely oust most of the Republicans who represent those two states in the U.S. House of Representatives.

On Thursday, Democratic leaders in Virginia’s state legislature proposed an aggressive gerrymander that aims to flip four GOP-held seats. The lines would potentially give Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the state congressional delegation, up from their current 6-5 edge. Two days earlier, Democrats in Maryland’s House of Delegates passed a map that targets Republican Rep. Andy Harris for defeat. Such a result would give Democrats all eight of Maryland’s U.S. House seats. However, both plans face political and legal hurdles that could prevent them from ever taking effect.

Let’s take a look at the new maps and where things stand in each state.

Virginia

Democratic state Senate President Pro Tempore Louise Lucas spent months promising a 10-1 map if Virginia redistricted its congressional map. Late last week, she and state House Speaker Don Scott released the Democrats’ plan to accomplish this goal. Under these lines, former Vice President Kamala Harris would have carried 10 of the state’s 11 districts against President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Virginia Democrats’ proposed gerrymander (Dave’s Redistricting App)

The proposal uses classic gerrymandering moves to achieve this end. It “packs” even more GOP voters into the dark-red 9th District and “cracks” other red areas across multiple seats to reduce their influence. Five Democratic-leaning seats include parts of blue, vote-rich Northern Virginia — four of which stretch far beyond the Washington, D.C. metro area. The blue Richmond metro is mainly split between the 4th and 5th districts while taking in rural, redder areas to the south and west. Additionally, the light-blue 6th District snakes around to grab blue-leaning localities in western Virginia, including the homes of three large universities: Charlottesville (University of Virginia), Harrisonburg (James Madison University), and Blacksburg (Virginia Tech). Only the swingy 2nd District and plurality-Black 3rd District would change little under this plan.

The result would be a map with eight solid or likely Democratic seats, five that Harris would have carried by at least 10 points and three that she would have won by seven to nine points. The other two Democratic targets, the 2nd and 6th districts, would narrowly have gone for Harris by about 1 and 3 points, respectively.

Under the plan, three of the state’s five Republican House members would face reelection battles in far bluer seats than they currently hold. First of all, Rep. Rob Wittman’s seat (the current 1st) would be split across four districts. Most notably, Wittman’s Northern Neck home would sit in the solidly blue 8th District, which would extend all the way from Arlington County by the nation’s capital to Hampton Roads in Virginia’s southeast corner. Rep. John McGuire’s seat in the middle of the state (the current 5th) would mostly be spread across four seats, too. He would likely consider running in the new 5th — home to more of his political base — or in the new 6th — home to a plurality (43%) of his current constituents. Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Ben Cline would likely end up in the new 6th, which contains nearly 40% of his current seat (also numbered the 6th).

The other two Republican incumbents would face reelection bids on mostly the same turf they already represent. Rep. Jen Kiggans holds the swingy 2nd District in and around Virginia Beach, and the proposal only makes the seat 1.5 points bluer by its 2024 vote. Lastly, the only secure Republican would be Rep. Morgan Griffith, who already represents most of the current 9th District in Southwest Virginia (though Cline could perhaps run against him in a primary).

For some of the state’s six Democratic incumbents, a primary challenge would likely be a greater risk than a general election threat. For instance, only 44% of the population in Rep. Don Beyer’s current seat would end up in the new 8th District, forcing him to better acquaint himself with many new voters. Rep. James Walkinshaw also represents less than half of the new 11th District, while Rep. Eugene Vindman has almost 60% of his current 7th District’s population in the new 1st District, where he would almost certainly run.

Because the proposal could elect many new Democrats, high-profile contenders have already positioned themselves to run. In the mostly unchanged 2nd District, former Rep. Elaine Luria announced in November that she would mount a comeback bid against Kiggans, who beat Luria in 2022. In the new 6th District, former Rep. Tom Perriello might be the Democratic frontrunner, although it’s been 15 years since he represented part of it in a previous incarnation of the 5th District. In September, Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor announced a bid against Wittman in the current 1st District, but has said she would run in the new 5th District.

The other wrinkle would be the open-seat race in the new 7th District. (Recall that Vindman would run in the new 1st). Shaped like an upside-down “Y,” the seat runs south from Arlington all the way into the upper reaches of Central Virginia, where it forks to go west into the Shenandoah Valley and east into the western Richmond exurbs. The arms of the “Y” wrap around the new 6th District to take in heavily Republican areas, combining them with much bluer areas nearer to D.C. One Democratic contender for the seat could be state Del. Dan Helmer, who previously lost primaries for the 10th District in 2018 and 2024.

Despite Democrats like Lucas calling this a “10-1” map, it might only achieve such a result in a blue-leaning year (which 2026 does appear likely to be). Fact is, many districts would be far from secure in a more neutral year or, especially, in a good year for Republicans. All in all, a red wave midterm could conceivably result in six Republican-held seats! Now-former Gov. Glenn Youngkin carried four of the 11 seats in his 2021 gubernatorial victory and very nearly carried two others in what was the best recent electoral cycle for the GOP in Virginia.

To be sure, Democrats should win most of the seats most of the time, at least in the three elections in which this map would be used (2026, 2028, 2030). Democratic nominees for governor in 2025 and president in 2024 carried 10 of the 11 districts, and Democrats running for the U.S. House in 2022 carried nine of 11. Still, the Youngkin example is obviously very recent, and it’s not even necessarily a worst-case scenario for Democrats — Youngkin won statewide by about 2 points. And 2030 could be a red-leaning midterm under a Democratic president.

That the Democratic mapmakers did not draw a stronger gerrymander speaks to three factors. First, attempting to win 10 of 11 seats in a purplish-blue battleground state made it difficult to keep Democratic vote share higher in many districts to make them more secure. Second, Democrats were constrained by parochial concerns, particularly making sure that incumbent Democrats had obvious places to run based on their current seats. Third, Democrats clearly wanted to avoid giving Republicans a legal avenue to block the map in federal court by diluting the plurality-Black 3rd District. As a result, they largely maintained the current form of the 2nd and 3rd districts rather than make the 2nd notably bluer by trading blue (and more racially diverse) areas in the 3rd for redder (and whiter) areas in the 2nd.

Still, Republicans have some hope of blocking the map, first through legal channels. In late January, a state circuit court ruled that Democrats in the legislature did not follow state law while pursuing a constitutional amendment to allow redistricting. Democrats appealed the ruling, which will now go before the state Supreme Court after the state appeals court motioned to have the case expedited to the Old Dominion’s final legal arbiter. It is unclear just how Virginia’s high court might rule.

In the meantime, Democrats advanced legislation to call an April 21 special election for voters to decide on the constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to redistrict. New Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed it into law on Friday. A non-November referendum would be highly unusual in Virginia: The state last held such a vote in 1956, and the last time it did so for a constitutional amendment was 1928.

If a referendum does happen, a Democratic victory would not be preordained. It’s true that Virginia Democrats just had a great 2025 election, and the 2026 political environment looks good for them, too. A late January poll from the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University found the amendment succeeding 51%-43%. But Democrats have far less room for error in Virginia than in California, where in November voters voted 64%-36% to implement a Democratic gerrymander as part of the ongoing national redistricting fight. Virginia Democrats are counting on anti-Trump sentiment to achieve the same end, but the proposed map is ugly enough that it might turn off some voters who otherwise dislike Trump.

Maryland

Whereas the Democratic majority Virginia’s legislature agreed on a redistricting proposal, Democrats in Maryland are presently at an impasse. There, the state House of Delegates passed a new gerrymander that, if implemented, would very likely elect eight Democrats and zero Republicans.

A proposed Democratic gerrymander passed by Maryland’s House of Delegates.

But Democrats in the state Senate mostly oppose the legislation, and state Senate President Bill Ferguson said last week that “we are not prioritizing that piece of legislation.” Ferguson is worried that mid-decade redistricting could open the door to a court ruling against not only a new 8-0 gerrymander, but also the state’s current map, which gives Democrats a 7-1 edge.

He may have good reason to be concerned. In March 2022, a state court struck down a Democratic-drawn map that might have handed Democrats eight seats, ruling it was an illegal partisan gerrymander under the state constitution. Instead of pursuing the case before the state supreme court, Democrats in the legislature came to an agreement with then-Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, to establish a less-aggressive gerrymander. (Democrats also held veto-proof legislative supermajorities, so they maintained a strong bargaining position). But if the state’s high court had to rule on this proposal, it might be amenable to the GOP’s arguments considering Hogan appointed five of the panel’s seven justices. (Though it’s worth remembering that the Democratic-held state Senate still had to confirm those nominees.)

Despite the new map’s stalled status, it’s worth considering how the proposal could affect Maryland’s congressional delegation. After all, pressure from other Democrats, including Gov. Wes Moore, might push Senate Democrats to reconsider their opposition. And the map legislation passed by the state House includes elements meant to reduce the chances that state courts rule against it, including specifying that requirements of compactness and contiguity apply only to state legislative districts, not congressional ones.

First and foremost, the new map would very likely shut out Maryland Republicans by ousting Rep. Andy Harris, the state’s only GOP House member. The map proposal shifts the Eastern Shore-based 1st from a seat Trump carried by 17 points to one he would have lost by 14. It mainly accomplishes this by removing red turf in the northern part of the district and replacing it with an arm that reaches west across the Chesapeake Bay to take in Annapolis and parts of dark-blue Howard County.

The map also helps the Democrats’ chances at achieving an 8-0 result by making the 6th District in western Maryland a bit bluer, going from a seat Kamala Harris carried by 6 points to one she carried by 11. It does this by shifting heavily Republican areas in the northeastern part of the seat into the solidly blue, Montgomery County-based 8th District, held by Rep. Jamie Raskin. As a result, every seat would have voted for Harris by at least 8 points.

However, the Democrats’ effort to turn the 1st into a blue-leaning seat would not just affect Harris but also Democratic Reps. Johnny Olszewski and Sarah Elfreth. Both would find themselves with a plurality of their current constituents (both around 40%) in a seat with a different number from their current one.

Olszewski would potentially have two options: the 2nd or 3rd districts. The new 3rd would be more likely, as the seat would contain 39% of his current constituents and include much of the northern swath of Baltimore County that he already represents (he served as county executive before winning a seat in Congress in 2024). Still, the new 2nd could appeal to Olszewski, too, even though it would have about 22% of his current constituents. For one thing, his hometown of Sparrows Point (per the House Clerk) would be in the new 2nd, and that seat would also be somewhat bluer (Harris +12) than the new 3rd (Harris +9). (Olszewski would not run in the majority-Black 7th District, home to Democratic Rep. Kweisi Mfume, or Raskin’s 8th District.)

Elfreth’s choice would probably be more straightforward. Because Elfreth’s home base is in the Annapolis area, she would most likely run in the new 1st District, which would also contain 42% of her current constituents. Under that arrangement, though, she would find herself potentially representing much of the Eastern Shore, which would be new to her. She could consider running in the new 2nd District, which would have about one-third of her seat. However, the majority of that district’s Democratic voters live in Baltimore City or Baltimore County, areas she does not currently represent — making her potentially vulnerable in a primary.

Harris, the lone Republican, would also face a choice if he decided to seek reelection. The new 1st would have a plurality of his current seat’s population (about 46%) and much of the Eastern Shore. However, it would be a bit bluer (Kamala Harris +14) than the new 3rd, which would contain 33% of his present constituents. Harris lives in Dorchester County on the Eastern Shore, but he previously lived in Baltimore County, so his residency would not necessarily stop him. (The Constitution does not require representatives to live in their district, just their state.) If anything, though, Harris would probably not run under these lines in a blue-leaning midterm.

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The fates of Rep. Andy Harris and most of Virginia’s Republicans remain up in the air. But if one of these states (especially Virginia) succeeds in implementing the Democrats’ proposed gerrymander, it probably makes redistricting in a GOP-led state like Florida more likely. All in all, more redistricting fights are probably on the way.

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📆 Around the Corner 📌

Notable upcoming elections:

• March 10, 2026

  • GA-14 Special Election (runoff likely)

• April 7, 2026

  • Wisconsin Supreme Court General Election

  • GA-14 Special Election Runoff (if necessary)

• April 16, 2026

  • NJ-11 Special Election

Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026!