🗳️ 12 races to watch in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania & Oregon
Trump's revenge tour swings into Kentucky, where he hopes to topple Rep. Thomas Massie. That and much more on a busy May 19 primary election date.
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: Previewing 12 elections to watch on May 19 in Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama, Pennsylvania, and Oregon.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Redistricting Wars continue apace. On Monday, South Carolina’s Republican-led legislature will begin considering whether to redraw its congressional map and dismantle the state’s one Democratic seat held by longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn. In Maryland, Democrats are looking at the possibility of a last-minute redraw to eliminate the state’s one Republican seat, held by Rep. Andy Harris.
The latest New York Times/Siena College survey found more bad polling news for President Trump. The poll pegged his overall approval at 37% and disapproval at 59%, while only 30% of respondents felt Trump had made the right decision to go to war with Iran. This survey’s findings about Trump’s standing look similar to Decision Desk HQ’s approval average, where Trump has been right around 40% for the past month.
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
12 races to watch in five states holding May 19 primaries
Quick summary:
In Kentucky’s 4th District, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie faces retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who has President Trump’s endorsement. In what is now the most expensive U.S. House primary ever, Trump aims to oust Massie after the congressman broke with the president on a number of issues.
Georgia’s marquee statewide primaries could all be headed to runoffs. Republicans are certain to have runoffs in the primaries for U.S. Senate and governor, while Democrats could also have one in their gubernatorial race.
Alabama and Kentucky also have Republican primaries for U.S. Senate, where Trump-endorsed candidates are favored. But in Alabama, a primary runoff still looks probable.
The Kentucky Derby happened on the first Saturday in May, but another horse race in the Bluegrass State has captured the nation’s attention. On Tuesday, May 19, Republican voters in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District will determine the fate of Rep. Thomas Massie, who faces a primary challenger endorsed by President Donald Trump.
But Massie’s contest is just the first race of the busy May 19 primary slate. Major statewide contests for U.S. Senate, governor, and even state supreme court are on the ballot in Alabama, Georgia, and Oregon. Some states, including Pennsylvania, also have high-profile primaries for other U.S. House seats, some that will be competitive in November. (Apologies to Idaho, which doesn’t have a race that made the cut.)
Here then is a look at 12 races to watch on Tuesday night across five states. Make sure to join Decision Desk HQ’s livestream coverage of all the electoral action, starting around 6 p.m., when Kentucky’s polls close. We will be streaming on X, YouTube, and Substack.
Kentucky
Polls close: 6:00 p.m. Eastern (7:00 p.m. in western half of state)
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 4th, 6th congressional districts
In Kentucky’s 4th District, Republican Rep. Thomas Massie violated the most important precept in today’s Republican Party: He crossed President Donald Trump. Massie was one of just two Republicans to vote against Trump’s 2025 OBBB megabill. He then stoked Trump’s ire further by spearheading a bipartisan discharge petition to force a vote on legislation to release the Epstein Files. To top it all off, Massie has been one of the few vocal Republican critics of American military operations in Iran, even forcing multiple failed House votes that would have blocked further strikes on the country without congressional approval.
In response to these affronts, Trump endorsed a primary challenge by retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who now faces Massie in a one-on-one contest this Tuesday. The Massie-Gallrein race has turned into the most expensive U.S. House primary ever by ad spending, according to AdImpact, with around $26 million in past or future reservations. Using FEC independent expenditure data — this includes more than just ad spending — you can see in the table below that pro-Gallrein forces have outspent Massie’s backers.
Massie’s criticisms of the Iran conflict and Israel’s influence in American politics have prompted the Republican Jewish Coalition and American Israel Public Affairs Committee to spend a combined $8 million against Massie via their super PAC affiliates. In response, Massie recently introduced legislation that would make AIPAC’s lobbying and political activity subject to the Justice Department’s reporting requirements for foreign agents. The biggest individual spender against Massie is the pro-Trump MAGA KY super PAC, which has made $7.5 million in outlays. Notably, donors associated with pro-Israel groups have also contributed to that group’s coffers.
Massie has had a more diffuse array of defenders. The leading group backing him, Kentucky 4th PAC, has spent $6.5 million boosting Massie or attacking Gallrein. Who exactly is funding the group may not become clear until the release of future campaign finance reports. But Massie also has support from libertarian-flavored conservative groups, led by Kentucky First PAC, which has spent $1.5 million. That organization is mainly funded by noted billionaire Republican donor Jeff Yass, who is close to Sen. Rand Paul. A group more directly associated with Paul, Make Liberty Win, has also spent $1 million to aid Massie.
Outside groups in this race have controversially embraced the use of “deep fake” videos in ads. MAGA KY ran a spot with an AI-generated video of Massie walking hand-in-hand with Democratic Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar. The ad opens by saying that Massie had been “caught in a throuple” with the two leading progressive women. Meanwhile, Kentucky 4th PAC attacked “woke Eddie” for leaving the GOP after Trump won the 2016 Republican nominee. The spot utilizes fake video of Gallrein fleeing a First World War-esque trench while Trump continues firing his weapon at an unseen enemy.
If there is momentum in this race, it may be with Gallrein, who limited public polling suggests has gained on and perhaps overtaken Massie. In early April, Big Data Poll/Public Polling Project and Quantus Insights each conducted surveys that found Massie marginally ahead. But in the last few days, their latest surveys have found Massie running even with or trailing Gallrein. Other polls taken just before the primary have found the two candidates tied or Gallrein a bit ahead.
Kentucky’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate had looked like another marquee race on May 19. It featured three high-profile contenders: Rep. Andy Barr, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. But the race changed on May 1 when Trump endorsed Barr. He also persuaded Morris to withdraw from the race and take an ambassadorship (though Morris’s name will remain on the ballot). In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Barr now leads Cameron 37%-27%.
Once a protégé of retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, Cameron has tried to cast Barr as a creature of the “swamp.” But Barr is also positioned to benefit also from a sizable spending advantage: He’s outraised Cameron $8.3 million to $2.2 million and has benefited from around $14 million in outside support compared with Cameron’s $350,000.
Lastly, keep an eye on the 6th District, Barr’s open seat. While a Trump+15 seat around Lexington might seem out of reach for Democrats, a blue-leaning midterm environment and the district’s Democratic roots could make it interesting. Former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson appear to be the two main Democratic contenders. Dembo has outraised Stevenson about $956,000 to $603,000. The winner will likely face former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, who has Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary.
Georgia
Polls close: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 11th Congressional District; governor, state supreme court (2)
Of the races on the ballot Tuesday, none will be watched more closely in November than Georgia’s U.S. Senate race. Sen. Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state that Trump carried in 2024, making this seat one of the pivotal contests of 2026. Three Republicans are battling to take on Ossoff: Rep. Buddy Carter, Rep. Mike Collins, and former football coach Derek Dooley.
But unlike in Kentucky, Trump has not endorsed in Georgia’s Senate race. Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows a muddled race, with Collins in first with 29% and Carter and Dooley running about even in the mid-teens. A runoff looks probable, with Collins most likely to advance to face one of the other two leading candidates.
Thanks to $3 million in self-funding, Carter had outraised Collins as of April 29, $6.8 million to $4.5 million, with Dooley having pulled in $3.8 million. This has helped Carter lead in ad spending supporting his bid: As of May 12, AdImpact reported ads backing Carter totaled $7.2 million in expenditures or future reservations, compared to $2.4 million supporting Dooley and $765,000 supporting Collins.
Importantly, Dooley has a key ally in this race: Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who decided not to seek this seat himself. Kemp’s federal super PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., has spent $4 million supporting Dooley’s bid. Collins has received the only other outside help, with groups aligned with him having spent $489,000 attacking Carter and $361,000 supporting Collins. However, if Dooley can make the likely runoff, his ties to Kemp could lead Trump to endorse the other contender.
That’s also because Collins and Carter have each portrayed themselves as the most Trump-aligned candidate in the race. Looking to knock Collins down a peg, Carter’s campaign has run ads focusing on a House Ethics Committee investigation into Collins’s alleged misuse of congressional funds to pay a former aide for campaign work as well as the aide’s girlfriend. Dooley, for his part, has aimed his narrative at presenting himself as a conservative outsider who supports Trump but who will be different from D.C. politicians who are “me-first guys” — hitting his opponents for being part of a broken system without naming them.
A runoff also looks likely in the Republican primary for governor. Kemp is term-limited, and the race to succeed him attracted a number of high-profile contenders, including three statewide officeholders: Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, and Attorney General Chris Carr. Jones quickly became the default favorite after Trump endorsed him in August, preferring Jones to the other two candidates, both of whom defended Georgia’s election results in 2020 while in office.
But in February, billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson jumped into the race promising to pour at least $50 million of his own money into the campaign. He’s since surpassed that figure: Last week, Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution told the Decision Desk HQ Podcast that Jackson’s overall spending is now at least $83 million. This huge investment has paid dividends for Jackson, who leads Jones about 29%-25% in Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, with Raffensperger and Carr sitting farther back. A runoff between Jackson and Jones now looks like the likeliest outcome on Tuesday.
With all that money, Jackson has dominated ad spending. AdImpact reported on May 12 that Jackson had spent or reserved $62 million worth of ads, well ahead of the $29 million in ad spending boosting Jones from his campaign and leadership committee. Raffensperger and Carr had spent a bit more than $8 million combined. Additionally, a group of unclear provenance, Georgians for Integrity, has spent $19 million attacking Jones. Jackson has denied having ties to the group.
Jackson has used his vast resources to cast himself as an outsider and Trump ally while appealing to the GOP base. In one spot, Jackson said anyone undocumented in Georgia who committed a crime would end up “deported or departed.” Jones and his allies have pushed back on Jackson’s conservative bona fides. For instance, they note Jackson only donated to Trump (via an allied super PAC) for the first time in 2025, not long before his campaign. And Jones has run ads with a straight-to-camera endorsement from Trump, who has stuck with the lieutenant governor.
Democrats also have a crowded gubernatorial primary, though it has a clear frontrunner: former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Her mayoral tenure was controversial, especially due to civil unrest during anti-racism protests in 2020 following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Perhaps tellingly, Bottoms did not seek reelection, a move that surprised many observers. She then served in the White House under President Joe Biden, who has endorsed her. Although Bottoms has a clear lead in most every poll, it’s unclear if she will win a majority. And some Georgia Democrats fear she could be a weak general election candidate.
A trio of Democrats are seriously vying for second place in the hopes of a runoff in which they could capitalize on doubts about Bottoms. Former State Labor Commissioner and DeKalb County Executive Mike Thurmond has cast himself as the experienced choice. Meanwhile, former state Sen. Jason Esteves has positioned himself as the fresh-faced change candidate. Lastly, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Republican-turned-Democrat, argues that he’s the moderate who can win a statewide race. It’s really anyone’s guess who might finish second among this group.
One open House seat has a pretty competitive GOP primary that could go to a runoff. In the 11th District held by retiring Republican Rep. Barry Loudermilk, a three-way contest has broken out involving neurosurgeon John Cowan, state Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore, and Loudermilk aide Rob Adkerson (who has the congressman’s endorsement). Cowan and Pridemore have much more money than Adkerson, but Adkerson has tried to hit both of his rivals for their past criticisms of Trump. You might recognize Cowan’s name from his 2020 primary against now-former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, to whom Cowan lost in a runoff for the old 14th District.
Lastly, Georgia voters will also choose state supreme court justices in officially nonpartisan general elections that coincide with the party primaries. Yet two of these races are anything but nonpartisan. Democrats have backed former state Sen. Jen Jordan against Justice Sarah Hawkins Warren, and attorney Miracle Rankin against Justice Charlie Bethel. Progressive groups, the state Democratic Party, and Planned Parenthood have all made investments backing Jordan and Rankin. On the other side, Kemp’s Georgians First Leadership Committee has weighed in to help the incumbents. These races have taken on new importance in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, which could make state courts more influential over future judgments regarding redistricting.
Turnout could favor Democrats, although the situation remains highly uncertain. Decision Desk HQ’s early voting tracker shows that around 449,000 early and mail votes were cast in the Democratic primary as of May 14, compared with about 352,000 in the GOP primary. But we can expect more Election Day voting by GOP primary-goers, which could even things out a fair bit.
Alabama
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate
Alabama’s most high-profile race is the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, which is open because Sen. Tommy Tuberville decided to run for governor. The contest to succeed him has developed into a three-way battle featuring state Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore, and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson. Moore has Trump’s endorsement, but he is not running away with it. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Moore leads with 25%, followed by Hudson at 20%, and Marshall at 16%.
Along with the Trump endorsement, Moore has outraised his opponents, bringing in $2.5 million. He’s also benefited from $10.7 million in outside spending. Most that has come from Defend American Jobs, part of crypto super PAC Fairshake’s network, and Alabama Freedom Fund, an affiliate of the Club for Growth. While the polling is mixed, these factors probably make Moore the most likely candidate to advance to the probable runoff.
The other two look to be fighting for a runoff spot. Marshall has been Alabama’s attorney general since 2017. Hudson, meanwhile, has never held political office, but his outsider campaign may be gaining traction. He’s actually outraised Marshall, $1.5 million to $1.4 million, and he’s now polling in second. Not coincidentally, the pro-Marshall American Values First PAC spent $1.3 million on ads attacking Hudson and supporting Marshall just ahead of the primary. Hudson has received around $900,000 in outside support himself.
Pennsylvania
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 3rd, 7th congressional districts
The Keystone State will be a pivotal battleground in 2026. Fully four of the state’s 17 U.S. House districts are highly competitive GOP-held seats that Democrats are targeting. But of those, just one — the 7th District in the Lehigh Valley — has a competitive primary.
There, four Democrats are facing off to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who narrowly flipped this seat in 2024. The frontrunners look to be former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Bob Brooks, president of the Pennsylvania Professional Fire Fighters Association. Two other candidates are in the mix, former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure and Carol Obando-Derstine, a former aide to Sen. Bob Casey Jr.
A former Republican, Crosswell has outraised Brooks $1.8 million to $1.2 million, but the union leader has support from across the Democratic Party’s ideological spectrum. For instance, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already backed Brooks’s bid, as have officials as varied as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
But outside money is also playing a role, including some potential Republican meddling. Brooks has received $2.2 million in outside spending support, most of it via Stronger Together PA, a super PAC backed by unions. But the other major player is Lead Left PAC, which has spent $1.7 million supporting McClure or attacking Crosswell and Brooks. Lead Left has ties to Republican organizations, so the group may want a weaker potential general election candidate. After all, McClure has raised far less money than the other contenders.
The other primary to watch in Pennsylvania is in the dark-blue, Philadelphia-based 3rd District, which is open following Rep. Dwight Evans’s retirement. The Democratic primary all but certain to select the next member of Congress, and three candidates are in the mix: state Rep. Chris Rabb, state Sen. Sharif Street, and pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford (who has Evans’s endorsement). Rabb and Street have each raised about $1 million, more than Stanford’s $757,000.
But like many Democratic nomination battles, this one has involved debates over Israel and scrutiny about the potential influence of pro-Israel groups. Rabb is a critic of Israel, and he’s backed by $1.6 million in outside support, mostly from high-profile progressive groups like Justice Democrats and the Working Families Party. Stanford, meanwhile, has taken a more moderate position on Israel and has benefited from $3.5 million in spending by the science-focused 314 Action Fund. However, Rabb has alleged this pro-Stanford money originates from AIPAC and other pro-Israel donors, which 314 Action Fund denies. Stanford claims that Rabb’s efforts to connect her to AIPAC have led to her receiving death threats.
In terms of who might come out on top, one tea leaf is 314 Action’s recent decision to stop advertising on behalf of Stanford. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that this move came after the group’s polling found Stanford’s support sliding. That might suggest the race is between Rabb and Street, the latter of whom has support from the local party apparatus.
Oregon
Polls close: 11:00 p.m. Eastern (10:00 p.m. in small part of eastern Oregon)
Top races to watch: Governor
Lastly, Oregon has a very crowded Republican primary for governor that’s worth monitoring. First-term Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is fairly unpopular, though a blue-leaning midterm might help her overcome her potential deficiencies. Still, Republicans are hoping to put Oregon in play.
The GOP nomination race has 14 candidates on the ballot, of whom three seem most notable. State Sen. Christine Drazan, who lost to Kotek in 2022, has led the only two public surveys of the race with support in the low-to-mid 30s. Her main opponents are former NBA player Chris Dudley, who lost a razor-thin 2010 contest as the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee. The other is state Rep. Ed Diehl, who helped lead the effort for a veto referendum that could block a series of new transportation-related taxes. (The Democratic-led state legislature moved that referendum from November to May 19, so that’s also on the ballot Tuesday).
Could this be the year that the GOP breaks the Democrats’ 40-year hold on Oregon’s governorship? A recent survey by Hoffman Research Group on behalf of Dudley’s campaign could fuel Republican dreams. The poll found Dudley ahead of Kotek 48%-44% in a hypothetical general election matchup, while Drazan ran even with Kotek at 45%. But before he can match up against Kotek, Dudley has to get past Drazan and Diehl.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ Votes, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
May 26
Texas primary runoffs (including the GOP runoff for U.S. Senate)
June 2
California primary (including the top-two primary for governor)
Iowa primary (including the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate)
Montana primary (including the Democratic primary for MT-01)
New Jersey primary (including the Democratic primary for NJ-07)
New Mexico primary (including the Democratic primary for governor)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.