🗳️ Michigan & More Mega Primary Preview
A look at the clash between El-Sayed and Stevens, plus other pivotal primaries happening on Aug. 4 across Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, Virginia, and Washington
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
The Frontrunner: Previewing 11 races to watch across the busy Aug. 4 slate of primaries in five states!
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
August 4 Mega Primary Preview
Quick summary:
Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is the main event on August 4. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed looks like the favorite for the Democratic nomination over Rep. Haley Stevens. But Democrats have other factional fights in competitive seats, including in Michigan’s 7th District.
In Missouri, Democratic voters in St. Louis must choose between Rep. Wesley Bell and ex-Rep. Cori Bush in a rematch of their 2024 primary battle. In the heavily redrawn 5th District, Republicans will pick a nominee to challenge vulnerable Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.
Kansas is the GOP’s best pickup opportunity on the 2026 governors map, and both parties have highly-contested primaries to pick their nominees for the race. And in Washington’s 4th District, it’s unclear if two Republicans might advance out of the top-two primary to November.
The first Tuesday of August is always a busy primary date, and this year it is especially full of intriguing intraparty contests in five states. The biggest race is undoubtedly Michigan’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate between progressive Abdul El-Sayed and more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. However, that is not the only primary on Tuesday that features a major Democratic clash between more progressive-minded and more establishment-oriented candidates. Republicans also have key races that will decide their candidates in some solidly red congressional seats, as well as the GOP’s top pickup opportunity on the gubernatorial map (Kansas).
With apologies to my home state of Virginia, no primaries in the Old Dominion were quite interesting enough to make this list (had the state’s congressional redistricting referendum taken effect, that wouldn’t have been the case). Below we dig into 11 major races that have must-watch Democratic and/or Republican primaries in Michigan, Missouri, Kansas, and Washington. Read on!
Michigan
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern (part of the Upper Peninsula closes at 9:00 p.m.)
Top races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 10th, 11th, 13th congressional districts; governor
Michigan hosts the largest number of pivotal primaries on Tuesday, with six that we will dig into here. And number one with a bullet is the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, in which former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens are tangled in the most expensive Senate primary their party has ever seen. This critical seat on the Senate map is open due to the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. The winner of the Democratic primary will face ex-Rep. Mike Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee who barely lost in Michigan’s 2024 Senate race.
The contest between El-Sayed and Stevens features clear ideological cleavages. El-Sayed is a staunch progressive who supports policies such as Medicare For All and holds a highly critical opinion of Israel plus the influence of pro-Israel groups. A center-left Democrat, Stevens is more closely linked to the party’s establishment and has a reputation as one of the more pro-Israel Democrats in Congress.
Despite her support from many party leaders, Stevens is the underdog heading into primary day. As of Monday morning, El-Sayed led in Decision Desk HQ’s primary polling average by 13 percentage points, 53%-40%.
El-Sayed holds an edge even as Stevens has had far, far more financial backing. As of July 31, AdImpact reported that the campaigns and outside groups had spent about $81 million on ads in this race, the most ever in a Democratic congressional primary. Of that total, almost $64 million of the spending was in support of Stevens, compared to only around $7 million for El-Sayed.
United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, has been the biggest spender in this race, pouring in about $32 million in ads supporting Stevens or opposing El-Sayed. This is the largest sum ever spent by UDP on a single election. While UDP’s ads have made no mention of Israel — long the group’s S.O.P. in Democratic primaries — this largesse has only further magnified the divisions over Israel and the conflict in Gaza. El-Sayed, who is Muslim, recently appeared on a podcast in which he called out AIPAC for backing Stevens, whom he blasted as “the least capable candidate in America.” Stevens shot back that El-Sayed wanted “to blame all of [his] problems on Jewish Americans.”
The looming possibility that El-Sayed will win this race has prompted many Democrats to worry about whether he or Stevens would be a stronger general election candidate against Rogers. Recent polls are somewhat divided on this question: Across six general election surveys conducted since early June that tested each Democrat against Rogers, both are tied with the Republican, on average. But there are is substantial variation across these surveys, with some suggesting that El-Sayed would be far weaker, and others that suggest he would be stronger than Stevens.
Should he win the nomination, El-Sayed will test whether a progressive can win in a swing state. And the importance of the Michigan seat cannot be underestimated: If Republicans flip the seat, Decision Desk HQ’s forecast shows that the GOP will have close to a 90% chance of holding onto its Senate majority.
Michiganders will also nominate their candidates for governor on Tuesday, with the winners looking to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In the Democratic primary, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is a heavy favorite over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. By comparison, the Republican contest is more competitive. There, Rep. John James faces businessman Perry Johnson, who has self-funded his campaign with more than $30 million to beat James, whose campaign has spent a little over $6 million.
James looks like the favorite, in part because he has President Donald Trump’s endorsement — even if that support came somewhat begrudgingly. In June 2025, after James had launched his campaign, Trump said that the party had better have a good replacement for James in his competitive House seat or “we’re not letting him run for governor.” In mid-June, Johnson tried to capitalize on Trump’s reticence in an ad that noted that the president had not endorsed James — true at the time — and that Trump had not wanted James to run for governor.
But Trump’s support for James seems likely to be enough for the congressman to win the primary. The other two candidates on the ballot, former state Attorney General Mike Cox and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, each suspended their campaigns following Trump’s endorsement. Late July surveys from Emerson College and Mitchell Research each found James leading Johnson, though by significantly different margins (8 points in Emerson, 20 in Mitchell).
The seat James is leaving behind, the 10th District in the Detroit suburbs, is a high priority target for Democrats. Republicans have largely coalesced behind Army veteran Mike Bouchard Jr., the Trump-endorsed son and namesake of the longtime Oakland County sheriff. But Democrats have a three-way contest involving former special victims prosecutor Christina Hines, former Commerce Department attorney Eric Chung, and former Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel.
Hines appears to be the favorite, at least based on limited polling and endorsements. An early July Hart Research survey on behalf of EMILY’s List, which supports Hines, found her leading the field with 42%, ahead of Chung (19%) and Greimel (16%). She also sports endorsements from other influential groups like Everytown for Gun Safety, Giffords PAC, and End Citizens United. However, Chung has led the fundraising race with $1.9 million raised, outdistancing Greimel ($1.3 million) and Hines ($1.2 million). Still, Hines has benefited from $500,000 in outside backing from Pro-Choice Majority Action, which is affiliated with Elect Democratic Women.
Michigan is home to another key battleground seat, the 7th District around Lansing, that has an even more closely-watched Democratic primary. The contest involves three candidates: former diplomat Bridget Brink, Sunrise Movement co-founder William Lawrence, and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. The winner will face Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, who flipped this Trump +1 seat in 2024.
This primary features clearer ideological divisions, as Lawrence is a prominent progressive candidate contending with two more moderate candidates in Brink and Maasdam. Lawrence has Sen. Bernie Sanders’s endorsement and recently held a campaign event with El-Sayed. Maasdam has the endorsement of moderate Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin, who held this seat before narrowly defeating Rogers in the state’s 2024 Senate contest. Brink, meanwhile, has support from two former Democratic governors and the state’s largest teachers union.
A recent poll for Maasdam’s campaign from Global Strategy Group found Lawrence leading with 38%, followed by Maasdam (27%) and Brink (19%). That result suggests that the two more moderate contenders might split the vote in a way that aids Lawrence, whom some party leaders fear would be a weaker general election candidate. To that point, Brink has led the fundraising race with $3.0 million, more than Maasdam’s $2.1 million and far more than Lawrence’s $1.1 million.
Outside spending suggests that Republicans may be meddling to help Lawrence win. A group with apparent GOP ties that sports a name similar to the organization Lawrence co-founded — Michigan Sunrise PAC — has spent $1.7 million supporting Lawrence or opposing Maasdam. But groups associated with Democrats have also spent big, mainly to help Maasdam or oppose Lawrence: This includes $2.2 million from VoteVets to boost Maasdam, $1.1 million from the Rolling Sea Action Fund (connected to the Congressional Black Caucus) to oppose Lawrence or help Maasdam, and $910,000 from Crush MAGA PAC to counter Lawrence.
Democrats also have a hotly contested primary in the dark-blue, Detroit-based 13th District. Wealthy Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar, an Indian American, has held this seat for two terms despite garnering primary opposition from Black candidates in the plurality-Black constituency. But for the first time, Thanedar finds himself in a one-on-one race with such an opponent, left-wing state Rep. Donavan McKinney. An early July poll from Data Progress sponsored by McKinney’s allies at Justice Democrats found Thanedar ahead 46%-42%, so this could be a very close contest.
Aided by his self-funding, Thanedar has enjoyed a financial edge. He’s outspent McKinney nearly two-to-one, and $2 million in outside help from the pro-crypto super PAC Protect Progress has further buoyed the incumbent’s campaign. But McKinney, a Democratic socialist, is hoping to harness the same leftist energy seen in other strongly Democratic cities. As part of this effort, outside groups have poured in $2 million to support McKinney or oppose Thanedar.
Lastly, Stevens’ Senate bid has left the blue-leaning 11th District open in the Detroit suburbs. In the Democratic primary, state Sen. Jeremy Moss looks like a favorite. He’s outraised former Ford engineering executive Don Ufford $1.5 million to $1 million while also receiving about $400,000 in outside backing, predominantly from pro-AI super PAC Think Big. Still, Ufford’s outsider and populist appeal could spring a surprise on Moss, whom Ufford has criticized for receiving donations from AIPAC-aligned donors.
Missouri
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 1st, 5th, 6th congressional districts
After Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary, the Democrats’ next-most prominent ideological clash can be found in Missouri’s 1st District, a dark-blue constituency that includes the City of St. Louis. The seat’s Democratic primary features a rematch between now-Rep. Wesley Bell and ex-Rep. Cori Bush, whom Bell ousted in the 2024 primary for this seat. An outspoken progressive, Bush primaried a longtime incumbent to win this district in 2020. But in 2024, Bell defeated Bush about 51%-46%, aided by millions in outside support from United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC.
Just two years later, Bush is mounting a comeback against Bell. Her success depends in part on surfing the same wave of energy that has produced successes for other left-wing candidates in Democratic primaries, tied in part to changes in Democrats’ views of the party establishment as well as increasing party’s criticism of Israel and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC. We have seen no recent public polling of this primary, but a February survey by HIT Strategies for Bush’s campaign found Bell only leading by 4 points, 44%-40%. If Bush successfully topples Bell so soon after he beat her, it will be easy to connect her success with the changing mood of the Democratic Party.
But Bell will hope that his financial advantage proves sufficient to win, as it did in 2024 when he outraised Bush and had more outside support. The same is true in 2026: Bell has raised $3.6 million to Bush’s $1.3 million, and pro-Bell outside spending totals about $3.8 million, compared to almost none for Bush. Once again, the biggest player is UDP, which has spent $2.6 million opposing Bush or supporting Bell. Additionally, the campaign arm of the New Democrat Coalition — the main center-left caucus in the U.S. House, of which Bell is a member — has doled out $1.1 million to oppose Bush.
Bell and his allies have used this money to make the case that Bush was ineffective and a thorn in the side of her own party. UDP has run ads hitting Bush for her attendance and voting record, while the New Democrats have produced spots criticizing her for previously saying that she saw “fascism” in the Biden-Harris administration. These attacks connect to reasons why Bush was especially vulnerable in 2024. Back then, Bell hammered Bush for opposing an infrastructure deal backed by President Biden. Bush also faced allegations that she had misused campaign funds spent on a security team that included her husband.
Last year, Missouri played a part in the national redistricting conflict when the GOP-led state government implemented a new congressional map. The map did not notably change the 1st District, but it dramatically altered the Kansas City-based 5th District, held by longtime Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver. Under the old lines, Trump lost the seat by 23 points, but under new boundaries that stretch into deep red central Missouri, he would have carried it by 18 points. Cleaver is seeking reelection despite this, but the favorable seat has produced an expensive GOP primary — though the map’s future beyond this election remains murky due to a prospective veto referendum that could undo it.
The crowded Republican race features two principal contenders, state Sen. Rick Brattin and former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks. Brattin is viewed as the more anti-establishment contender, illustrated by his now-former membership in the state legislature’s hard-right Freedom Caucus. Burks has portrayed himself as a conservative who can get things done, criticizing Brattin’s status as a “bomb-thrower.” We have seen no public polling of this primary contest.
Thanks to around $1 million in self-funding, Burks has outraised Brattin more than three-fold, $1.2 million to $332,000. But Brattin has received critical support from Win It Back PAC, an affiliate of the conservative Club for Growth. The group has poured in $2.3 million of the $2.5 million total pro-Brattin spending, outpacing the $1.7 million expended by pro-Burks groups. Win It Back has run a series of ads trying to connect Burks to “woke” policies at Truman State University, where he serves on the school’s board of governors. This fits in with the sharp focus on such issues in GOP primary attacks, as Republican admaker Nick Everhart recently explained on the Decision Desk HQ Podcast.
Stretching across northern Missouri, the even redder 6th District is open due to the retirement of Republican Rep. Sam Graves. Two contenders lead the seat’s GOP primary contest: conservative radio host Chris Stigall and Kansas City Councilman Nathan Willett. There’s been no public polling released in this primary, but the winner will easily claim this seat in November.
Stigall has Graves’s endorsement and also has a big financial edge in the race. Although both contenders have raised about $600,000, Stigall has enjoyed about $1.5 million in outside aid to just $318,000 for Willett. The main force is a pro-Stigall group called Come and Take It PAC, which has run ads claiming that “Woke Willett” opposed Trump’s ban on transgender service in the U.S. military. Willett has countered by hitting Stigall for past anti-Trump comments made on his radio show. The president has not weighed in on this race.
Kansas
Polls close: 8:00 p.m. Eastern (part of western Kansas closes at 9:00 p.m.)
Top races to watch: Governor
Kansas’s race for governor offers Republicans their top pick-up in the country. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, which has opened up this seat in the traditionally red-leaning Sunflower State.
Understandably, a large number of Republican contenders jumped into the fray. But Trump intervened in the GOP primary by endorsing state Senate President Ty Masterson, which likely makes him the favorite in a crowded race. Still, Masterson faces opposition from three other noteworthy candidates: financial services executive Philip Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Surprisingly, we have seen no public polling released of the GOP race. Each of them hopes to upset Masterson and make him the fourth Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate to lose a 2026 nomination contest.
Sarnecki in particular has attempted to ding Masterson in the hopes of somewhat neutralizing the Trump endorsement. He has tried to seize the outsider mantle as the only major contender without elected experience, arguing he can be a better steward of the taxpayer monies. His allies at Kansas Comeback PAC have run ads hitting Masterson as a political insider who “works for them” and not “for us.” Sarnecki has also alleged that Masterson has enjoyed a “no-show” job at Wichita State University, a claim the school and Masterson reject.
Self-funding has also played a major role in the Republican contest. Sarnecki ($3.4 million raised) and Schwab ($2.5 million) have self-funded about three-fourths or more of the money raised by their campaigns. By comparison, Masterson ($1.5 million) and Schmidt ($1.2 million) have not spent much from their own pockets to help their campaigns. But both have earned some of their own sizable outside support. American Mission, part of the pro-AI Leading the Future super PAC network, has spent close to $800,000 on ads supporting Masterson, while Defend US PAC has doled out close to $1 million in ads supporting Schmidt in part by highlighting her past battle with cancer.
On the Democratic side, two state senators are the leading candidates vying to succeed Kelly. The outgoing governor endorsed Kansas City-area state Sen. Ethan Corson, whom Kelly has argued is best positioned to win over the center-right voters who helped her win the red-leaning state. Corson has also substantially outraised his main primary foe, state Sen. Cindy Holscher, $2.1 million to $811,000.
However, Holscher has been buoyed by an anti-establishment message that likely has rung louder given Corson’s support from Kelly and other institutional party figures and groups. For instance, Holscher hit Corson at a recent forum for receiving a past donation from CoreCivic, a company that recently reopened a private prison in Leavenworth for use as an immigration detention center. She’s also backed a statewide moratorium on new data center construction (Sarnecki has on the GOP side, too). The only poll of the Democratic primary, from Change Research/Civil Clarity in mid-June, found Holscher leading 37%-10%, with close to half of respondents undecided.
Washington
Polls close: 11:00 p.m. Eastern
Top races to watch: 4th Congressional District
The main race to watch in Washington is the primary in the conservative 4th District, where Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse is retiring. Newhouse is one of three remaining Republicans in Congress who support Trump’s impeachment after the events of Jan. 6. A major reason Newhouse survived was Washington’s top-two primary system, in which all candidates regardless of party run together and the leading two vote-getters make the general election. In 2024, Newhouse finished second behind another Republican, former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler, which would have been all she wrote in a traditional party primary. But moving on in the top-two system, Newhouse defeated Sessler in November, 53%-47%, cleared aided by Democratic voters.
In the race to succeed Newhouse, it’s mostly a matter of whether two Republicans advance, or if the lone Democrat on the ballot finishes in the top two with one Republican. The leading GOP contender is Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney, who has Trump’s endorsement. But two other notable Republicans are running: Sessler, who is seeking this seat for the third-straight cycle (he also ran in 2022), and state Sen. Matt Boehnke. But if the three main Republicans heavily split the vote among Republican and GOP-leaning primary voters, Democrat John Duresky might earn enough support to finish ahead of a splintered Republican field.
On top of Trump’s backing, McKinney has all the financial advantages in this race, which makes her the overall favorite. She’s raised $982,000, more than Sessler ($605,000, half of it self-funded) and Boehnke ($212,000). And she has benefited from $2.1 million in outside support, while her GOP opponents have received practically zero. Much of that money has come from AI- and crypto- affiliated groups, such as American Mission and Defend American Jobs (part of the pro-crypto Fairshake network). A super PAC specifically supporting her, Washington Rising, has also spent big on her behalf.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ’s Votes portal, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
August 6
Tennessee primary (including Governor)
August 8
Hawaii primary (including HI-01)
August 11
Alabama special U.S. House primaries (including AL-02)
Connecticut primary (including Governor)
Minnesota primary (including U.S. Senate)
South Carolina special Republican primary for U.S. Senate
Vermont primary (including Governor)
Wisconsin primary (including Governor)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.
Hey guys, a Washingtononian here. The big race for us isn't a federal seat, it's the state supreme court. 5 of the 9 seats are up for grabs and this could be a very big deal in the income tax argument, parental rights, women's sports, etc.