🗳️ Will crowded primaries hurt Democrats? Here’s what New York’s races can tell us.
Seasoned politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers examines the dynamics of busy primaries in key races like New York's 17th Congressional District
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner (GUEST POST): Politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers looks at the dynamics of crowded contests in New York’s Democratic primaries for the U.S. House, focusing especially on the high-stakes 17th District race.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
Livestream Tuesday: Check out our live coverage of all the June 23 primary action starting at 8 p.m. Eastern. You can watch on X, YouTube, or Substack.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
The campaign bell looks to have tolled for Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette in South Carolina’s Republican runoff for governor. Evette had President Donald Trump’s endorsement ahead of the June 9 GOP primary, which she narrowly led. But now the president has co-endorsed her runoff opponent, state Attorney General Alan Wilson. In limited polling, Wilson holds a clear lead over Evette, so Trump’s move reaffirms the expectation that Wilson will win.
Last Wednesday, pastor Jackson Lahmeyer dropped out of the Republican nomination contest for Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District. The previous day, Lahmeyer had finished second in the GOP primary behind state Rep. Mark Tedford, setting up an August runoff. But just before the primary, Lahmeyer’s campaign was roiled by revelations about text messages he exchanged with a woman who was not his wife. With the story continuing to burn hot, Lahmeyer decided to end his campaign, making Tedford all but certain to be the solidly red seat’s next representative.
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Curious how a candidate’s lead changed as the votes were counted? On Votes, you can look at a race’s Vote Drop History. Take Georgia’s June 16 GOP runoff for governor between healthcare executive Rick Jackson and Lt. Gov Burt Jones.
Jackson held a sizable lead at first because he did better among early in-person votes, which were counted first. But Lt. Gov. Burt Jones narrowed the gap as votes cast on Election Day were counted next. As the highlighted vote drop indicates, Jones was doing better in many batches of votes tabulated later on. But Jackson did well enough in Election Day votes to hold onto to win in the end.
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
Will crowded primaries hurt Democrats? Here’s what New York’s races can tell us.
By Kaleigh Rogers
Quick summary:
Democrats’ 2026 enthusiasm has translated into multiple candidates running not only in open, solidly blue U.S. House seats, but also against incumbent Democrats, in competitive swing seats, and even in longer-shot Republican-held districts. This development has both upsides and downsides, potentially complicating Democrats’ path to retaking key districts in the midterms.
Among the many crowded Democratic primaries in New York, few better illustrate this dichotomy than the race in the 17th District, where many Democrats are vying to take on vulnerable Republican Rep. Mike Lawler. But even as candidates seek to differentiate themselves, primary voters can face a paradox of choice.
It feels like just yesterday Jack Schlossberg was making shitposts dunking on his uncle, RFK Jr., and confounding anyone over the age of 35. These days, the grandson of former President John F. Kennedy has traded in his board shorts for a suit and tie, and speaks seriously about gun industry deregulation and tax policy. I guess it’s an inevitable evolution when running for Congress, but perhaps even more so when you’re competing in one of the most crowded primaries in the state. Schlossberg is one of eight candidates in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th District, vying to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.
Democrats are bullish about this midterm cycle and that has contributed to an already growing trend of crowded primaries. The enthusiasm has translated into multiple candidates running in primaries not only in open, strongly Democratic seats like New York’s 12th, but also against incumbent Democrats, in competitive swing seats, and even in longer-shot Republican-held districts. The upside is that many voters have more choice than ever in deciding who ends up on the ballot, and who ultimately represents them. But there are potential downsides for the party as well: requiring candidates to spend money on the fight-before-the-fight, forcing incumbents to fend off challengers, and possibly even leading to weaker candidates in the general.
Could these complications hurt Democrats’ chances to win back the U.S. House in November? Piecing apart some of New York’s busy June 23 primaries can give us a clue. To be sure, the number of candidates probably won’t make a difference one way or the other in a seat as blue as New York’s 12th (it went for Harris by 65 points). But in more competitive districts, a longer ballot in the primary can feel riskier.
Consider New York’s 17th District. Currently held by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, the seat’s a mix of suburbs, exurbs, and rural areas that stretches from Westchester County up into the Hudson Valley. However, this area has been purple for a while and even voted (narrowly) in favor of Harris in 2024, so Democrats see it as a ripe opportunity for a flip.
Unsurprisingly, that means the Democratic primary attracted a healthy slate of contenders — at its peak, eight candidates were running (five remain). For a few weeks, there were three frontrunners jockeying for the lead: Army veteran Cait Conley, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson, and tech executive Peter Chatzky. However, Chatzky dropped out in April, leaving the more moderate candidates Davidson and Conley to battle it out.
The few polls in the race show these two candidates pretty evenly matched, but what’s more revealing is the plurality of voters who say they don’t know who they’re going to choose on June 23. This aligns with research findings that show primary elections with more candidates lead to voters feeling more overwhelmed and spending less time learning about each candidate.
Spencer Goidel, a political science professor at Auburn University who has researched this issue, said while most people would say they value more choice, in practice it can actually make it harder to make a decision. “It’s like asking, ‘Would you like more beer in the grocery store?’” Goidel said. “Of course I want to choose the thing that I would like the best. But then we get into the grocery store, it kind of feels overwhelming, and we end up making a choice we regret, or that we just made based on some heuristic like brand name.”
In New York’s 17th, Chatzky was a more progressive candidate who could self-fund his campaign to the tune of $11 million. But he bowed out, citing the “machinery of the Democratic party” putting “their heavy weight on the scale of this election.” (The surfacing of his years of strange Facebook posts about, among other subjects, sleeping with Melania Trump may have also had something to do with it.)
Both Conley (who leads the remaining candidates in fundraising) and Davidson (who is polling alongside Conley) said they’ve tried to keep their campaigns focused on beating Lawler, rather than spending too much energy on their fellow Democrat. “We’re in an attention economy where it is hard sometimes to break through and reach people,” Conley said. She said her strategy for the home stretch is to “meet as many people, where they are, as possible.” Davidson said that having so many candidates is a “good thing,” adding: “this primary has been as diverse in terms of viewpoints as our party is, and [...] we’ve had many opportunities to showcase our beliefs and our different backgrounds and records.”
But despite the cordial attitude, the race hasn’t been free of intraparty mudslinging (not to mention meddling from GOP-affiliated groups). Davidson has criticized Conley’s work for defense firms that have also worked with the Trump administration, while a Conley-linked strategist reportedly tried to pitch Davidson to media outlets as far-left. Goidel said this is an expected consequence of bitterly-fought primaries. “We know with choice overload, people are looking for reasons to cancel options,” he said. “So if you’re thinking about a large candidate field, I think it’s easy to imagine how candidates would try to make people not viable, [to show] that they don’t pass the party litmus test.”
Ultimately, this race demonstrates how difficult it is to break through against moderate candidates in a seat the Democratic Party is hell-bent on flipping. Thanks to their profiles and the electoral environment, either Conley or Davidson would be well positioned to take on Lawler in the fall.
Then there are races that at first appeared crowded, such as New York’s 4th District, which covers a tony stretch of Long Island. It’s currently held by Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, but she’s been seen as vulnerable heading into 2026. She narrowly won the seat in 2024, ousting Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, and since then has drawn criticism from within her own party for some of her votes in Washington. This includes siding with Republicans to increase funding for the Department of Homeland Security amid increased scrutiny around ICE. This vulnerability attracted multiple primary challengers to the race this year, including some potentially strong candidates like former state Assemblymember Taylor Darling.
But one by one, these challengers dropped out or failed to qualify for the race due to technicalities around signatures, clearing the field for the incumbent. Meanwhile, D’Esposito, who was widely considered the GOP’s best shot at reclaiming the seat, decided not to run. What started out looking like a potentially heated primary race that could set the stage for determining the future of a vulnerable House seat has fizzled, demonstrating just how difficult it can be to take on the party establishment, even when the politician is facing widespread criticism. Gillen is still at risk here, but no longer from within her own party.
We’ll get a better view of how a busy primary slate impacts Democrats’ chances as we get closer to Election Day, but the state of the races in New York heading into the June primary suggest that the very thing that is attracting so many Democratic candidates to toss their hat in the ring — an overall sense of enthusiasm and optimism for taking back control of the House — may also be enough to override the political challenges of crowded primaries.
📆 Around the Corner 📌
On DDHQ’s Votes portal, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:
June 23
June 30
Colorado primary (including Governor & U.S. Senate)
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.
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