Ohio will be a key battleground in 2026
DDHQ’s polling averages show tight races for Senate and governor
Weekly Spotlight
Once upon a time, Ohio was considered the bellwether state. Between 1964 and 2012, it backed the winner of every presidential election and usually voted similarly to the nation as a whole. But since President Donald Trump carried the state in 2016, Ohio has voted well to the right of the country, weakening its reputation as a swing state.
But in the 2026 midterms, Ohio could recover some of its lost battleground patina. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages, Ohio’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections each appear highly competitive almost seven months out from the November election.
Precipitated by JD Vance’s ascendancy to the vice presidency, Ohio’s special election for Senate is tight. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, Vance’s appointed successor, is running even at 47% against former Sen. Sherrod Brown, his Democratic challenger.
This Senate contest is likely competitive both because of the blue-leaning electoral environment and Brown’s potential strength as a candidate. The 2026 cycle looks favorable for Democrats, seeing as Trump’s approval rating is in the low 40s and Democrats hold a consistent edge in the generic ballot. And while Brown lost reelection in 2024, he won 46.5% of the vote and lost by fewer than 4 points, running ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 44.0% haul and 11-point margin of defeat.
Meanwhile, the gubernatorial contest to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Mike DeWine also has the makings of a barnburner. Republicans have coalesced around 2024 presidential contender Vivek Ramaswamy, but he is just behind Amy Acton, the Democrats’ pick, in our polling average.
Republicans have held Ohio’s governorship since 2010, but Acton could flip the seat for the first time in 16 years. She gained notoriety during the COVID-19 pandemic as the state’s health director. In that role, Acton worked closely with DeWine, often appearing with the governor at daily briefings. However, polls in Ohio in recent years have tended to underestimate GOP support, which will be something to monitor in both contests.
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Important national averages
President Donald Trump’s job approval
President Trump’s job approval sits at 41%, about equal to his lowest point in Decision Desk HQ’s average since January 2025. While his disapproval mark of 55% is not quite at its highest point (56%-57% in February), it is also on the worse end of his second-term ratings.
The conflict with Iran does not look likely to help Trump’s standing, and the fallout may hurt his numbers. For one thing, he has not received any sort of “rally ‘round the flag” effect — an improvement in ratings that sometimes occurs during a military conflict.
And surveys suggest a majority of Americans are unhappy with the Iranian operation. For instance, a recent CBS News/YouGov poll found that 60% disapproved of the U.S. taking military action against Iran, and 68% felt the Trump administration had not clearly explained the U.S. goals in the conflict. The public is also feeling the pain from rising gas prices associated with the military operations. Two-thirds of respondents said Americans should not be willing to pay more for gas because of the conflict.
Generic Ballot
In Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average, Democrats lead by 4 points, 44%-40%. This is in line with the Democrats’ edge on this measure over the past few months. Their lead has hovered between about 4 and 6 points since November 2025.
Right Track/Wrong Track
Decision Desk’s right track/wrong track average remains largely in the same place. Overall, roughly 56% say the country is on the wrong track, while 38% say the country is on the right track. However, that does represent a slight uptick of +1.5 points in net sentiments from last week.
There is not one obvious explanation for the slight improvement in views. Net sentiments among Republicans, independents, and even Democrats are up slightly since mid-February. Back then, the public hit a new high for Trump’s second term when it came to the share who felt the country was on the wrong track (61%-62%). But views have improved at least somewhat across the board in the past month, even as Trump’s approval has shifted toward a low point.
2026 Elections
2026 South Carolina Governor: Republican primary
Decision Desk HQ’s average for South Carolina’s Republican primary for governor continues to suggest a runoff is likely. Rep. Nancy Mace leads with 22%, followed by state Attorney General Alan Wilson with 18%. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette is just behind with 17%, while Rep. Ralph Norman sits back in fourth with 10%. Only a Trump endorsement here might bring some clarity ahead of the state’s June 9 primary.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Democratic primary
Last week, Decision Desk HQ released polling averages for Maine’s Senate contest, one of the most-watched races of the 2026 election cycle. But we don’t have any new polling since the release. In the Democratic primary, oyster farmer and military veteran Graham Platner continues to lead Gov. Janet Mills by about 12 points, 48%-36%.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Collins vs. Mills general
In a potential matchup between Mills and Republican Sen. Susan Collins, the incumbent holds a narrow lead, 44%-43%. Collins is the only GOP senator who hails from a state that Trump lost in 2024.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Collins vs. Platner general
Conversely, Platner holds a small lead over Collins, 46%-43%. These numbers could help Platner make an electability argument over Mills, although concerns remain among some Democrats that Platner’s controversial past comments and online posts could make him a weaker contender against Collins.
2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate — Republican primary
To finish off, we have another new primary polling average, this time for the May 19 GOP primary in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race. Longtime Sen. Mitch McConnell is retiring, and with the Republican nominee all but certain to win in the solidly red state, the party’s primary has become very competitive.
In our average, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron leads by about 6 points over Rep. Andy Barr, 31%-25%. Businessman Nate Morris is in third with about 13%. However, Cameron’s position has weakened in recent weeks, which could give Barr or Morris a chance to catch him by the time the state votes in about two months.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.