This coming Tuesday, April 21, will offer the latest conflict in the 2026 redistricting wars. Virginia will hold a special election on a constitutional amendment that, if successful, would set the stage for a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map. Namely, the amendment would allow the state legislature to bypass Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting commission until after the 2030 census. In expectation of passage, Virginia’s Democratic-controlled state government has passed a very aggressive proposal that aims to hand Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 districts — arguably the most lopsided gerrymander in the country.
To examine Virginia’s vote, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Chaz Nuttycombe to the podcast. And because this brought two Virginians together to talk about Virginia, the pod ran on the longer side! Chaz is the executive director of State Navigate, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works to help the public navigate state-level politics. State Navigate has a number of interactives on its website tracking what’s happening in Virginia (as does DDHQ Votes). And just ahead of recording, State Navigate released a new poll measuring support for the amendment, which found Yes leading 51%-45% — a lead, but not a huge one.
Geoffrey and Chaz began with an initial overview of where things stand in the redistricting vote (4:00). They then discussed the ballot language, including controversies surrounding potentially biased wording and ongoing legal challenges (12:18).
Then they dug into the campaign, starting with the Yes campaign’s monetary edge in ad spending and total contributions (20:39). Geoffrey and Chaz looked over the polling of the race, including State Navigate’s new survey and many of the key findings in the poll (23:10). They then discussed what turnout changes could shift the race toward No, explored State Navigate’s estimates about the partisan makeup of the electorate, and where the early vote stands (31:30).
They turned to a discussion of the makeup of the districts on the proposed congressional map (48:58). Given the aggressiveness of the gerrymander, they also talked about how the proposed lines could offer some hope for the No campaign by helping persuade some independent voters to oppose the measure (54:15). The show ended with Chaz talking about State Navigate, its offerings, and its mission (58:30).
