Bill Cassidy is in trouble in Lousiana
The incumbent Republican senator would be an underdog in a primary runoff — if he even advances out of the May 16 primary
Weekly Spotlight
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy’s stay in Congress may be approaching its end. The incumbent, who backed President Donald Trump’s impeachment after the events of Jan. 6, 2021, now faces the potential wrath of a pro-Trump GOP primary electorate.
In the May 16 primary, Cassidy faces Rep. Julia Letlow, who has Trump’s endorsement, and state Treasurer John Fleming. Because Louisiana requires candidates to win a majority for a nomination, this race looks very likely to go to a runoff. The question is, which two candidates will advance? Currently, Decision Desk HQ’s primary polling average has Cassidy and Letlow each at 28%, with Fleming not far behind at 22%.
But even if Cassidy advances to the June 27 primary runoff, his chances look bleak. In runoff polls released since Letlow got into the race in January, Cassidy trails both Letlow and Fleming by an average margin of 14 and 18 percentage points, respectively. The incumbent has rarely led, with most pollsters finding him well behind.
Of course, Cassidy could finish third behind Letlow and Fleming. In a runoff, that matchup looks much more uncertain: Fleming holds a nominal 35%-34% edge against Letlow, on average, in surveys testing the two challengers against each other.
Either way, the eventual GOP nominee will very likely win Louisiana’s Senate contest in November. But pro-impeachment Republicans in Congress may nearly cease to exist after 2026. Of the 17 who backed it in 2021 (seven senators and 10 representatives), only five remain: Cassidy, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse, and California Rep. David Valadao. But of those, only Murkowski, who isn’t up for election, is all-but-certain to return to Congress in 2027.
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Important national averages
President Donald Trump’s job approval
President Donald Trump’s job approval rating remains in the low 40s, where it has hovered since late in 2025. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, his approval stands at about 41%, while his disapproval is at 56%.
The president’s standing continues to be poor among some groups in ways that are telling about his overall situation. His approval rating among independents stands 32%, while 62% disapprove. He is even narrowly underwater among men, who are more Republican-leaning than women, with an approval rating of 47% and disapproval rating of 50%. Among Hispanics, who shifted to the right in 2024, the president’s approval is 42% and his disapproval is 54%.
Generic Ballot
In Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average, Democrats lead by 4 points, 45%-41%. Democrats have usually led on this indicator by around 4 to 6 points since November.
Right Track/Wrong Track
Americans continue to think the nation is moving in the wrong direction. In Decision Desk HQ’s right track/wrong track average, 58% say the country is on the wrong track, while 35% feel things are heading in the right direction.
2026 Elections
2026 South Carolina Governor: Republican primary
Republicans will be heavy favorites to hold South Carolina’s governorship, but it remains to be seen who the party will nominate. In Decision Desk HQ’s average of the GOP primary, Rep. Nancy Mace sits slightly ahead of Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, 20% to 19%. South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson is in a close third with 16%, while Rep. Ralph Norman is in fourth with 11%. Only a Trump endorsement here might bring some clarity ahead of the state’s June 9 primary.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Democratic primary
As we discussed last week, progressive Graham Platner looks like a strong favorite over Gov. Janet Mills in the Democratic primary for Maine’s U.S. Senate race. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, the oyster farmer and military veteran leads the state’s sitting governor by a nearly 30 points, 59%-30%.
It’s true that most recent polling of this race has come from pro-Platner sources. That includes the latest survey, a Workbench Strategy poll for Platner’s campaign that found him ahead by 35 points, 64%-29%. Still, this survey comes on the heels of an ad campaign by Mills’s team that went negative on Platner. With no contradicting info from the Mills campaign, this suggests Platner largely fended off those attacks.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Collins vs. Platner general
Should Platner win the Democratic primary, he’ll face Republican Sen. Susan Collins in one of the marquee races of the 2026 cycle. Collins is the only GOP senator who hails from a state that Trump lost in 2024, but she has regularly overcome her state’s light-blue lean to serve five terms. However, Platner leads Collins in early general election polling, 49%-42%. These numbers could help Platner make an electability argument over Mills, on top of his other advantages in the primary race.
2026 Maine U.S. Senate — Collins vs. Mills general
In a general election matchup that looks increasingly unlikely, Collins holds a slight edge over Mills, 44%-43%.
2026 North Carolina U.S. Senate — General election
Besides Maine, Democrats must seriously contest North Carolina to have any shot at winning back control of the Senate. Helpfully for them, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley 49%-41% in Decision Desk HQ’s average of North Carolina’s general election matchup.
2026 Ohio Governor — General election
In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy leads Democrat Amy Acton, 48%-45%. Both candidates look set to win their party’s nominations in Ohio’s May 5 primary, setting up what looks to be a competitive general election race.
2026 Ohio U.S. Senate — General election
In Ohio’s special election for Senate, Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a 49%-46% edge over former Sen. Sherrod Brown, his Democratic challenger. Husted was appointed to fill this seat after Vice President JD Vance resigned to take his current office.
After Maine and North Carolina, Democrats will need to find other seats to seriously contest if they want to have a shot at a Senate majority. The Ohio seat is undoubtedly one of them, as it’s next on the list of least Republican-leaning seats held by the GOP that Democrats can target in 2026. But that only further demonstrates how tough a path Democrats face in 2026: After all, Trump carried Ohio by 11 points in 2024.
2026 Kentucky U.S. Senate — Republican primary
In Kentucky’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron continues to lead Rep. Andy Barr by about 6 points, 31%-25%. Businessman Nate Morris is in third with about 13%.
2026 California Governor — Top-two primary
California’s top-two primary for governor has had a few twists and turns in recent weeks, most notably with Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s decision to suspend his campaign in the face of allegations of sexual misconduct. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, leads with about 18%. In second with 15%, holding the other top-two slot, is Democrat Tom Steyer, the billionaire 2020 presidential candidate.
Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, is in third with 13%, though the chances of an all-Republican general election have dropped somewhat following Swalwell’s exit. The Democrat who may most capitalize on Swalwell’s exit is former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, who also served as California’s attorney general and spent 12 terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. In post-Swalwell polling, Becerra has shot up to 9%, putting him in fourth.
2026 Texas U.S. Senate — Republican primary runoff
The May 26 Republican runoff in Texas’s U.S. Senate race is about a month away. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a small lead over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, 46%-43%. Cornyn and Louisiana Sen. Cassidy could both lose renomination, which would mark the first primary defeat for an elected incumbent senator since 2012, when Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar lost renomination. (Note that appointed Sen. Luther Strange did lose the GOP nomination in Alabama’s 2017 special election.)
2026 Georgia Governor — Republican primary
In Decision Desk HQ’s average for Georgia’s Republican primary for governor, healthcare executive Rick Jackson leads with 28%, ahead of the 20% garnered by Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’s. Two other statewide officeholders are also in the running: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (12%) and Attorney General Chris Carr (6%). With no candidate close to a majority, the May 19 primary looks likely to head to a June 16 runoff.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.
The passivity of Republican incumbents never ceases to amaze me. Of course, they follow Trump like sheep when voting in Congress. But in Republican primaries when he endorses another candidate they seem to lower their heads in resignation. They've got name recognition. I'm surprised they don't tell Trump to his face: "Endorse my primary opponent and I'll run as an independent. Then we'll see who wins a three-person election: the Republican devil you dislike or the Democratic devil you fear."