Tennessee 7th District Special Election Preview
A solidly red U.S. House seat is up for grabs on Tuesday, Dec. 2, and the race looks quite competitive
🍺 What’s on tap 🚰
Today’s newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: Previewing the much-watched special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.
🔔 Opening Bell 🐏
Must-read items about elections and politics.
Wisconsin’s congressional map could change ahead of the 2026 election. Last week, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ordered the creation of a pair of three-judge panels to hear two lawsuits challenging the state’s congressional lines. The 5-2 decision saw the court’s four liberal justices joined by one conservative in the majority, while the other two conservative justices dissented. The court based its decision on a 2011 law passed by what was then a GOP-controlled state government requiring challenges to the state’s congressional maps to be heard by three-judge panels.
Texas’s candidate filing deadline is set for Dec. 8, but the future of the state’s congressional map remains up in the air. After a federal judicial panel overturned the newly-drawn map, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito ordered a stay of the ruling on Nov. 21. A decision from the Supreme Court is expected to come soon, although it could also extend Alito’s order to set up a hearing on the merits of the case. That could leave the new map in effect for the 2026 election.
Speaking of Texas, Republican Rep. Troy Nehls announced on Saturday that he would not seek reelection in the state’s 22nd Congressional District. His departure could set off a crowded GOP primary in a solidly red seat (under either map). And one of the first candidates to announce a bid for the seat was Trever Nehls, the incumbent’s identical twin brother, who has his brother’s endorsement.
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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇
Could Democrats flip a solidly red seat in Tennessee’s special election?
Quick summary:
Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is solidly Republican, but despite its red hue, the seat looks to have a highly competitive special election on Dec. 2. Limited polling shows a close race, and super PACs aligned with the national parties have poured money into the campaign. Were Democrats to spring an upset in this contest, it would be one of the biggest special election flips in recent memory.
It’s President Donald Trump’s first year in office. His job approval rating has reached a low point and Democrats just swept to major victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere in the first November election since Trump entered the White House. And now Republicans are worried about losing a solidly-red seat in a December special election.
If you have a feeling of déjà vu, you’re not alone. In December 2017, during Trump’s first term in office, Republicans found themselves struggling in an unexpectedly competitive special election for a U.S. Senate seat in deep-red Alabama — a race the GOP lost. Eight years on, Republicans are wrestling to retain control of Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, even though this is a seat Trump carried by 22 percentage points last November (60%-38%), according to The Downballot. But in a political environment in which Democrats are strongly outperforming their 2024 numbers, Tennessee’s Dec. 2 special election — happening tomorrow — will test just how far to the left firmly right-leaning turf can swing.
The big picture
The two December special elections separated by eight years differ in many ways, but they share some broad similarities. Although a Senate election will always be a bigger deal than a House contest, the 7th District race is still a high-stakes clash because the GOP only holds a slim 219-213 majority in the House (with three vacancies). This means the party can ill afford to lose any ground. But following the resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Green in July, Republicans now find themselves fighting to keep this seat in GOP hands. Luckily for them, the party’s nominee for the Tennessee special — Matt Van Epps, Tennessee’s former commissioner of General Services — is not radioactive like the GOP standard-bearer in that 2017 Alabama race (Roy Moore).
Still, Van Epps faces some of the same electoral headwinds Republicans had to navigate in 2017 due to Trump’s mediocre job approval rating and an animated Democratic opposition. Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn hopes those forces will coalesce into a perfect storm that allows her to flip the 7th District and become this cycle’s Doug Jones — the Democrat who won in Alabama all those years ago.
And while the GOP is favored to hold onto this seat, the electoral environment is favorable enough for Democrats that this race could be very competitive. On average, the vote across five special elections for the U.S. House in 2025 has swung 20 points more Democratic in margin from the presidential vote in the same districts in November 2024. That average is quite near the 22-point swing that Democrats need to flip Tennessee’s 7th District.
In early April, special elections in two solidly red districts in Florida saw big swings to the left, including a nearly 23-point shift in Florida’s 1st District. Those seats were far too right-leaning for such swings to produce razor-thin margins, but they demonstrated how a highly-motivated (read: angry) Democratic base could produce a closer contest in a low-turnout election. This danger was particularly magnified given the GOP’s thin House majority, enough to even influence Trump’s plans for administration appointments. In late March, he pulled his nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik for ambassador to the United Nations even though he had carried New York’s 21st District 60%-39%. (Stefanik is now campaigning to become New York’s next governor.)
Three more special elections since early September have produced similarly large leftward swings, albeit in safe Democratic seats. The shifts undoubtedly were down to a combination of continued disproportionate engagement among Democrats and some Republican deterioration amid an environment where Trump’s approval rating had settled into the low-to-mid 40s. The same conditions have helped Democrats broadly outperform their 2024 presidential numbers in all special elections for Congress and state legislatures in 2025 by an average of 13 points in margin, according to The Downballot.
Of course, it will take an especially large swing for Democrats to actually flip Tennessee’s 7th District. For a moment, reset your thinking to consider how far left or right a congressional district leans relative to the national popular vote in the last presidential election as a way to better compare districts over time. As Trump led by about 1.5 points nationally in 2024, his 22.3-point edge in the 7th District gives the seat about an R+21 lean. Were Democrats to win the seat on Dec. 2, that would rank as the fourth-biggest flip by district lean for a political party in House special elections since 2005.
That’s why the most likely outcome is “close, but no cigar” for Democrats. After all, in special elections over the past 20 years, the incumbent party has rarely lost a seat that sat on turf as favorable as the 7th District was for the GOP in the 2024 presidential election. Since 2005, only three times in 26 House special elections has the incumbent party lost a seat that leaned 15 to 25 points in its direction in the previous presidential contest.
Still, if Behn were to win, this election would join that trio of contests as one of the biggest special election flips in recent memory. In May 2008, Democrat Travis Childers won a narrow victory to flip the R+23 Mississippi 1st District late in George W. Bush’s presidency. In March 2018, during Trump’s first term, Democrat Conor Lamb flipped the R+22 Pennsylvania 18th District. Now, Republicans can claim the biggest flip, though it comes with an asterisk. In 2010, Republican Charles Djou won a special election in Hawaii’s 1st District, a D+35 seat. But Djou won with only about 40% because parties could have multiple candidates and the two leading Democrats collectively garnered 59% while finishing second and third.
Where the race stands a day out
Although Van Epps remains somewhat favored in such a red district, the only nonpartisan public poll suggests Behn is nipping at his heels. An Emerson College/The Hill survey conducted on Nov. 22-24 found Van Epps ahead 48%-46%, a finding inside the margin of error (about ±4%). When the pollster pushed undecided respondents to pick a candidate, Van Epps led by about the same margin, 49%-47%. The Emerson survey was better for Behn than two earlier surveys conducted in mid-October by Democratic pollsters (one polled on behalf of Behn’s campaign and the other for a pro-Behn group) that each found Van Epps leading by 8 points, 52%-44%.
Two other data points in the Emerson poll also signal why this race could be very close. Likely voters (or those who already voted) said they backed Trump 54%-41% in 2024, a much closer margin than the 60%-38% actual result. This difference points to higher relative Democratic turnout affecting the makeup of the electorate in a lower-turnout special election. But the poll also indicates some deterioration in Republican support: Trump had a 47% job approval rating among poll respondents, compared with a 49% disapproval rating, a -2 net approval rating compared with a 13-point lead in respondents’ recalled 2024 vote.
Yet even before the release of the Emerson poll, the actions of national Democratic and Republican groups hinted at a tight race. On Nov. 14, MAGA Inc. began spending money on behalf of Van Epps, the first investment from the Trump-aligned super PAC. But that was just the tip of the iceberg: Over the next week, MAGA Inc. and Club for Growth upped their combined pro-GOP super PAC spending to more than $1 million in ads and get-out-the-vote efforts. And then House Majority PAC, the main outside group promoting Democrats in U.S. House races, announced on Nov. 21 that it would spend $1 million on television and digital ads promoting Behn or attacking Van Epps.
In terms of campaign fundraising and spending, Behn has outraised Van Epps, but Van Epps has enjoyed more outside support. From Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, Behn outraised Van Epps nearly two-to-one ($1.0 million to around $590,000). That’s an important advantage for Behn because candidates get more bang for their buck in ad spending thanks to cheaper advertising rates for candidates than outside groups. Still, as of Nov. 30, outside groups had spent more on behalf of Van Epps than Behn, $3.0 million to $2.3 million, making up for that fundraising gap.
Of course, who shows up to vote will be critical. As of Nov. 26, more than 84,300 votes had been cast via early and absentee votes across the 14 counties wholly or partly in the 7th District. As you’d expect for a lower-turnout special election, that’s a far cry from the roughly 242,000 early and absentee votes cast in the district in the 2024 election. Still, if we compare early and absentee voting in the special to the same type of votes in the presidential election, the district’s most Democratic turf — part of Nashville (Davidson County) — and the larger, less red counties of Montgomery and Williamson have notably higher turnout rates than nearly all of the district’s smaller dark-red counties.
This relative turnout rate is another sign of a closer race. In 2024, Democratic-leaning counties (or less GOP-leaning ones) had higher rates of early and absentee voting than dark-red counties, evidence of a continued partisan split in voting method preferences whereby left-leaning voters are more likely to vote early or by mail than right-leaning voters. However, at least 60% of the total 2024 vote in every county within the 7th District was cast early or absentee, which points to a smaller partisan gap in how voters voted. Knowing that many Republicans did vote early in 2024, the early voting shortfall in the special election means that Republicans will need a surge in Election Day voting for overall turnout in those dark-red counties to catch turnout in the more populous counties. It’s no wonder, then, that Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson plan to hold a tele-rally on Monday evening ahead of the election to galvanize GOP turnout.
As Election Night unfolds, two things to watch will be just how much early turnout has foreshadowed overall turnout and the margins in each county in this election. The race could certainly be close if dark-blue Nashville and other more populous (and less red) parts of the district, like Clarkesville (Montgomery County), contribute notably more of the special election vote in the 7th District than they did in the 2024 election and are notably more Democratic (or less red).
With that in mind, Decision Desk HQ has targets for the expected vote from each county and what margin is necessary in each for the overall race to be a dead heat. Information like this, as well as election maps, historical election figures, and prediction market data, among other things, can be found on Decision Desk HQ Votes, our new election dashboard. You can find out more and join the Votes waitlist here! I will update the data in this table on Tuesday if our benchmarks shift in response to data regarding Election Day turnout.
The entire political world will be watching what happens in the 7th District on Tuesday evening. A close result, regardless of which party wins, would be further evidence of high levels of Democratic enthusiasm and some GOP deterioration as we head into the 2026 midterm year. As always, Decision Desk HQ will have the vote tally as the night progresses, so make sure to follow along on our results website!
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📆 Around the Corner 📌
December 2, 2025
TN-07 Special Election
January 31, 2026
TX-18 Special Election Runoff
A “close but no cigar” result would still be catastrophic for the GOP. If a D+10 district were still on the board at this point, the Democrats are losing the House by a lot.