The Democratic Party's ratings hit a new low point
But the Republican Party's public image isn't exactly glowing either
Weekly Spotlight
The Democratic Party’s favorability ratings have just about hit their lowest point in the year 2025. Overall, 59% view the party unfavorably, equal to the party’s nadir in late July. Only 36% hold a favorable opinion, resulting in a -23 net favorability rating.
Recently, the public has viewed Democrats more negatively than Republicans. One factor is self-loathing: Democrats are more likely than Republicans to hold unfavorable views of their own party. Take the most recent poll in our average from YouGov/CBS News. Overall, just 34% viewed the Democratic Party favorably; among Democrats, 79% held a positive opinion. Meanwhile, 41% of all respondents viewed the Republican Party favorably; among Republicans, 89% held a positive opinion.
Although Americans hold a rosier view of the Republican Party, many clearly wish a pox on both houses. The GOP’s net favorability also declined to about -14 in our average, with 41% holding a favorable view and 55% holding an unfavorable one.
Key 2025 races
Virginia Governor
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee, continues to hold a 7-point edge over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race for Virginia governor. Two new polls did little to change the trajectory of our polling average.
However, we don’t yet have any public polling that was conducted after news broke that Jay Jones, the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, had sent a series of text messages in 2022 in which he discussed shooting a Virginia Republican politician.
New Jersey Governor
In New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds about a 5-point advantage over former state Assemblymember Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee.
The most recent survey of the race from John Zogby Strategies found Sherrill up by 8 points, 50%-42%, a continuation of a pattern in Garden State polls whereby pollsters have diverged into two camps. Some have Sherrill ahead by a high single-digit margin, while others have found the race to be neck-and-neck.
New York City Mayor
Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani continues to hold an 18-point lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race. However, we don’t have any new public polling of the race since incumbent Mayor Eric Adams dropped out on Sept. 29 (his name will remain on the ballot). Based on past polls that tested alternative candidate fields, Adams’s departure seems likely to help Cuomo at least marginally — but not enough to catch Mamdani.
Major 2026 elections
Texas Senate GOP Primary
The GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Texas received a shakeup on Monday, when Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt announced he would run for the seat. Hunt joins incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the primary. Cornyn had recently begun to run about even with Paxton in primary polls, undoing Paxton’s advantage in earlier surveys. But all of that will be old news once we start to get fresh surveys testing Hunt’s impact on this contest.
Important national averages
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats have held a small but consistent lead in the generic ballot average since the early summer. At present, they lead by about 3 points, 44% to 41%.
One thing to watch in generic ballot polling will be attitudes among independent voters. As independents tend to be lower-propensity voters, fewer will turn out in a midterm election than in a presidential year. Still, if they end up favoring one party by a lopsided margin, it will matter a great deal. Currently, independents prefer Democrats by about 13 points.
Right Track/Wrong Track
The share of Americans who felt the country was on the wrong track increased a bit in mid-September, and that change has lingered into early October. Currently, about 58% say they nation is on the wrong track, while just 36% say it’s on the right one.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.