đ´âđľ The 26 most vulnerable GOP-held House seats in 2026
Part two of a three-part series breaking down the U.S. House situation and which seats look likeliest to decide the majority in November
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Todayâs newsletter features:
Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.
The Frontrunner: A look at 26 pivotal Republican-held seats that will help decide the House majority in 2026.
Around the Corner: Upcoming elections weâre tracking at DDHQ.
đ Opening Bell đ
Must-read items about elections and politics.
President Donald Trump is expected to endorse incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in Texasâs Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. But Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton suggested that he might only withdraw from the race if Congress passed the SAVE Act; while highly unlikely to happen, the move put Paxton even more clearly on the record as a supporter of this legislation, which is a top priority for Trump.
The president ousted Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem and nominated Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin to fill the Cabinet post. Mullinâs Senate seat was already up for election this November, but the prospect of Mullinâs appointment has opened up a seat that multiple U.S. House members are already eyeing.
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26 Republican seats that are in play in 2026
Quick summary:
Republicans are defending 26 U.S. House seats that could be highly vulnerable in the 2026 midterms. Five are seats that President Donald Trump failed to carry in 2024, which will be the Democratsâ foremost targets. Eight others voted marginally for Trump, but have demographic factors (especially highly educated populations) that could play into Democratic hands in a midterm election. The other 13 seats mostly went for Trump by somewhat larger margins, but many have had close House races in recent years and could be in play.
Editorâs note: This is Part Two of a three-part series. Check out Part One and Part Three to get the full picture.
Two weeks ago, I took a 30,000-foot view of the U.S. House playing field in the 2026 midterms. Although the election remains more than eight months in the future, most seats will not be competitive in November. After taking a break to preview the March 3 primaries, I am back with Part Two of this planned three-part series on the House battlefield. This week, we will dig into the 26 Republican-held seats most under threat of capture by Democrats in 2026.
That figure was 25 in Part One, but it increased by one at the end of last week when Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he will run in Californiaâs 6th District. Kiley decided on this course rather than run against a fellow Republican in the stateâs 5th District (more on Kiley below, including his choice to run as an independent). The move adds one more imperiled GOP seat to this group, moving it from the âvery likely Democraticâ column in the chart below outlining the overall House picture.
Kileyâs decision was one of three events to occur since we published Part One that led to some small adjustments to seat categorizations. On March 2, an intervention by the U.S. Supreme Court removed the possibility that New York will redraw the stateâs firmly red 11th District before the 2026 election. That development moved one seat from the âRedistricting TBDâ category â districts that are clearly in limbo due to potential redraws â into the âvery likely Republicanâ column. But late last week, another very likely GOP district moved into the âPeripheral GOPâ category of redder seats that could be competitive in November. In Texasâs 23rd District, scandal-tarred Rep. Tony Gonzales abandoned his reelection campaign, clearing the way for controversial gun influencer Brandon Herrera to win the GOP nomination in the districtâs primary runoff.
In the third part of this series, we will talk about those peripherally competitive seats and, more importantly, the 20 in-play seats held by Democrats that will play a major role in determining the House majority. Here, though, we will tour the 26 seats held by Republicans that are most in danger of flipping to the Democrats in 2026.
26 for â2026
As is the case in most midterms, the presidentâs party appears in danger of suffering a net loss of U.S. House seats. President Donald Trumpâs job approval rating is mired in the low 40s, and Democrats have held around a 5-point lead in generic ballot polling since November â both signs of a blue-leaning midterm electoral environment. Republicans hold just a 220-215 majority in the House (including three vacant seats with their former party), meaning Democrats need just a net gain of three seats to win 218. Although redistricting complicates the seat arithmetic, Democrats look to have the upper hand in the House right now.
But if Democrats win a majority, where they flip seats and how many they gain remains to be seen. Currently, 26 Republican-held districts look most in danger of changing hands in November. Former Vice President Kamala Harris carried five of these seats in 2024, while 11 others went for Trump by fewer than 5 percentage points in margin. Trump carried the other 10 districts by between 5 and 13 points, but seven of those seats had closer margins in their House races than the presidential contest.
In this analysis, I also considered the median rating from experts at The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabatoâs Crystal Ball. They give Democrats at least a slight edge in two seats and view another 14 as toss-ups. The remaining 10 districts are split, with four leaning toward the GOP and six still likely to go Republican. Recall that Democrats only need a net gain of three seats, and swing seats tend to mostly shift to one party, which in a midterm is more likely to be the party outside the White House.
Nonetheless, Democrats have to win more seats on Trump-won turf to win back the House in 2026 than they did in 2018. Eight years ago, Democratsâ 40-seat gain involved flipping 22 GOP-held seats that Trump had lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016. This time around, Democrats could realistically flip about nine seats that Harris carried â the five above and four via obvious redistricting changes (three in California and one in Utah). Even if Virginia passes a pro-Democratic redistricting referendum that could net the party four seats, that would still only total 13 Harris-won seats â and Republicans will make their own gains from redistricting.
The five Harris-won seats
On Friday, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced that he would seek reelection in Californiaâs 6th District as an independent after redistricting tore up his old seat. Kiley undoubtedly starts out as an underdog, as evidenced by the âLikely Democraticâ rating outlets have assigned to this seat. He will have a tough time sharply separating himself from his traditional party label in a seat that Harris carried by 8 points in 2024. Even downballot, this seat is relatively unfavorable for the GOP, especially in a blue-leaning midterm year. In 2024, Democratic House candidates won 53% of the vote in this seat to the Republican candidatesâ 47%, according to Daveâs Redistricting App.
Still, Kiley does stand a good chance of facing a Democrat head-to-head in November, which marginally improves his chances. In states with typical party primaries, Kiley would run the risk of campaigning against both a Democrat and a Republican in the general election, which would split the right-leaning vote across two candidates. But in Californiaâs top-two primary, all candidates regardless of party appear on the ballot and the two leading vote-getters advance to the general. Four notable Democrats are running but only one minor Republican, so Kiley has a decent chance of advancing, even if he will likely be an underdog in November.
Democrats will also have a good shot of flipping Nebraskaâs 2nd District around Omaha, where GOP Rep. Don Bacon is retiring. Bacon won five highly competitive elections despite the seatâs light-blue tint at the presidential level. With Bacon, this was a top Democratic target; without him, itâs already somewhat favored to flip. Moreover, suburban and highly-educated districts are where Democrats have been on the march as of late. Overall, 43% of the districtâs population that is age 25 or older has at least a bachelorâs degree, compared to 37% nationally. Republicans have coalesced around Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who has said he would likely be similar to Bacon in âmany ways.â But he may begin the general election campaign as an underdog against whomever Democrats nominate out of a crowded primary field.
Californiaâs 48th District, which now runs from outside San Diego to Palm Springs, is another top Democratic target. Along with Kileyâs 6th District, the 48th is among the five redrawn seats that Democrats aim to flip in California. And it just became more difficult for the GOP to defend: On Friday, wealthy Republican Rep. Darrell Issa announced that he would not seek reelection just ahead of the candidate filing deadline. Although another Republican, San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, filed here, Issaâs about-face is telling about the difficulties many Republicans expect to face in November. One Democrat is likely to advance among Naval Reservist Ammar Campa-Najjar (who lost to Issa in 2020), businessman Brandon Riker, and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert.
The other two Harris-won seats could be harder for Democrats to flip. In New Yorkâs Hudson Valley-based 17th District, GOP Rep. Mike Lawler has a strong electoral track record that could help him survive a toss-up race. In 2024, he won 52%, running ahead of Trumpâs 49%; and in 2022, he defeated Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the then-chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Democrats have a potentially messy primary that has seen a fair bit of acrimony.
Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has an even more formidable history of winning on purple turf around Philadelphia. He won 56% in 2024, running far ahead of Trumpâs 49% in Pennsylvaniaâs 1st District. Just once, in the 2018 blue wave, has Fitzpatrick won by fewer than 8 points since he first won his Bucks County-based seat in 2016. (He was preceded by his brother, Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, in the same seat.) Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie is likely the leading Democratic contender, although a number of Democrats are running.
The eight most endangered Trump-won seats
The most well-educated swing seat in the country is New Jerseyâs 7th District, where 56% of the population has at least a bachelorâs degree. Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. has won two close races here, but he faces a tough fight in a blue-leaning midterm year in a seat Trump only carried by 1 point in 2024. Regardless of whom Democrats nominate from a busy primary field, this race will be wildly expensive. After all, the North Jersey seat sits entirely within the ultra-expensive New York City media market.
Two highly-educated suburban seats in Arizona are also up for grabs. In the 1st District around Scottsdale in the Phoenix area, 55% of the population has at least a bachelorâs degree. And the Trump +3 seat is open after Republican Rep. David Schweikert decided to mount an underdog campaign for governor. Both parties have competitive primaries. Conversely, the 6th District around Tucson (40% bachelorâs or more) already has its matchup more or less set: GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who won close races in both 2022 and 2024, will face Democrat JoAnna Mendoza, a retired Marine Corps drill instructor. Trump carried this seat by a hair less than 1 point in 2024.
Michiganâs 7th District around Lansing is another roughly Trump +1 seat that the GOP must defend in 2026. In 2024, Republican Rep. Tom Barrett flipped this district in an open-seat race following Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkinâs decision to run for Senate (a contest she narrowly won). Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink leads the fundraising battle among Democrats, but she likely faces a competitive primary against Navy SEAL veteran Matt Maasdam and progressive activist William Lawrence, who co-founded the Sunrise Movement.
Running north from the Denver suburbs, Coloradoâs 8th District will also be highly competitive. Republican Rep. Gabe Evans flipped this Trump+2 seat in 2024 by less than 1 point, making him a top target for Democrats. A number of Democrats have lined up to take on Evans, led by strong fundraisers state Rep. Manny Rutinel ($2.5 million raised) and former state Rep. Shannon Bird ($1.2 million). Theyâll need every dollar, as Evans had raised $3.0 million at the end of 2025.
Of the five GOP-held seats that California Democrats targeted in redistricting, they may have the most trouble defeating GOP Rep. David Valadao in the heavily Latino 22nd District. The new lines made this a Trump +2 seat, down from +6 under the old lines. But Democrats may regret not making this seat bluer in redistricting. Outside of a razor-thin 2018 defeat, Valadao regularly won even when Latino voters in this region had a clearer Democratic lean in presidential races â which is not necessarily the case after 2024. In the top-two primary, moderate Democratic state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains or her more progressive challenger, college professor Randy Villegas, will likely advance to face Valadao in November.
Two Republicans are also defending seats in Virginia that Trump carried by fewer than 5 points in 2024: Reps. Jen Kiggans in the 2nd District and Rob Wittman in the 1st District. Both seats will be highly competitive under the current lines. However, if voters back Virginiaâs April 21 redistricting referendum â and the Virginia Supreme Court doesnât rule against its legality â then both will be in much greater danger. Under the proposed lines, Kiggansâ seat would become a Harris +5 seat, while Wittmanâs district would be ripped up and leave him with no good options.
The other 13 vulnerable seats
We will quickly cover the remaining 13 contests, all of which are Trump-won districts spread across six states. These seats are whiter than the country as a whole and some are not as highly-educated â factors that could make it somewhat more difficult for Democrats to win these seats. Still, many of these seats have had very competitive House elections under their current lines.
All three of Pennsylvaniaâs seats in this section were decided by fewer than 2 points in margin in 2024. The closest winner was freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who carried the 7th District by 1 point. But while the Democratic primary to face Mackenzie looks competitive, the general election matchups are pretty much set in the stateâs other two highly competitive seats. In the 10th District around Harrisburg, Republican Rep. Scott Perry faces a rematch with Democrat Janelle Stelson, whom Perry only defeated by barely more than 1 point in 2024. And in the 8th District in northeast Pennsylvania, freshman GOP Rep. Robert Bresnahan looks likely to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
In Iowa, the most endangered House incumbent is Republican Rep. Zach Nunn in the Des Moines-based 3rd District. He is set to face state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott in a toss-up contest. Meanwhile, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a third battle with Democrat Christina Bohannan, whom Miller-Meeks barely beat in 2024 in this Iowa City-based seat. Lastly, Iowaâs open 2nd District around Cedar Rapids could be competitive if some of the trends weâve seen in recent special elections in eastern Iowa move the seat toward Democrats.
In Wisconsin, the seat that Trump carried by a little over 7 points looks more competitive than the district he won by 4.5 points. In Wisconsinâs 3rd District, which covers much of the Driftless Area, Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden has come under fire for some of his behavior in Congress, and he faces a rematch with Democrat Rebecca Cooke, who lost to the incumbent by about 3 points in 2024. But in the 1st District south of Milwaukee, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil has had little trouble winning even though his seat has seemed potentially competitive. Still, the partisan baseline of that seat could make this Steilâs toughest cycle yet.
Michigan has two additional competitive seats. Most notably, the 10th District in the Detroit suburbs around Macomb County is open due to the gubernatorial run of GOP Rep. John James. This seat is interesting because, based on back-of-the-envelope math, itâs right around the tipping point of the national environment, at least based on its 2024 presidential vote. Trump carried it by 6.5 points while leading the national popular vote by 1.5 points. That puts the seat 5 points to the right of the country â which is about where the Democratsâ current generic ballot margin sits. Additionally, Rep. Bill Huizenga could find himself in a competitive race against Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann in the 4th District in western Michigan.
We will end with three western districts. In Colorado, Democrats came close to flipping the 3rd District in the western half of the state in 2022, and they might have a shot at competing here again if Republicans nominate a more extreme candidate. Trump un-endorsed Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd following his vote against Trumpâs tariffs and endorsed Hurdâs primary opponent, Hope Scheppelman. In Coloradoâs 5th District around Colorado Springs, the highly-educated seat has held out promise for Democrats, who aim to give Rep. Jeff Crank a serious challenge. Lastly, in Alaskaâs at-large seat, Republican Rep. Nick Begich III only narrowly ousted Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in 2024; while Peltola is running for Senate in 2026, Begich could still have trouble in the idiosyncratic state.
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We will finish up this series in the near future by outlining the key Democratic-held seats in the House as well as some peripherally competitive GOP-held seats that could come into play in a blue wave-type environment. However, we will preview the March 17 primaries before we get to that!
đ Around the Corner đ
Notable upcoming elections:
March 10, 2026
GA-14 Special Election (runoff possible)
April 7, 2026
Wisconsin Supreme Court General Election
GA-14 Special Election Runoff (if necessary)
April 16, 2026
NJ-11 Special Election
Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026!
Good write-up. However, there is a bit of mix-up with Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and his brother the late Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA)