🛟🌊How Republicans hold the House & Democrats achieve a blue wave

Part three of a three-part series breaking down the U.S. House situation and which seats look likeliest to decide the majority in November

Will Democrats ride a blue wave to take control of the U.S. House in 2026? Or will Republicans find a way to hold onto their majority?

🍺 What’s on tap 🚰

Today’s newsletter features:

Opening Bell: Must-read items about elections and politics.

The Frontrunner: We finish up DDHQ’s initial overview of the 2026 House map by looking at potentially vulnerable Democratic-held seats and more Republican-leaning seats that could go Democratic in a blue wave.

Around the Corner: Upcoming elections we’re tracking at DDHQ.

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🔔 Opening Bell 🐏

Must-read items about elections and politics.

• In Nebraska, Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen removed Democrat Cindy Burbank from the U.S. Senate race on the state’s May 12 primary ballot. Evnen ruled that, under state law, Burbank was not a “good faith” candidate because, if nominated, she plans to support independent Dan Osborn against Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. On Thursday, a state district court dismissed Burbank’s suit challenging the decision; she has appealed that ruling to the state Supreme Court. Should Burbank not make the primary ballot, the other Democrat in the race, an anti-abortion candidate named William Forbes, would become the party’s nominee. That would remove the possibility that Osborn could have a head-to-head shot at defeating Ricketts, potentially splitting the anti-Ricketts vote.

• With Sen. Markwayne Mullin likely to become the next DHS secretary, NOTUS reported on Saturday that Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt wants to appoint oil and gas executive Alan Armstrong to fill Oklahoma’s looming Senate vacancy. Stitt and Armstrong met with President Donald Trump on Sunday to finalize the choice, and reports suggest the meeting went well. The Oklahoma Senate seat was already up in November, but now it’s an open-seat race. Under Oklahoma state law, an appointed candidate has to sign a statement promising not to run. While that provision likely cannot be enforced, Armstrong appears set to just serve out Mullin’s term as Rep. Kevin Hern has consolidated support from leading Republicans (including Trump) in the GOP primary for the seat.

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📈 The Frontrunner 🥇

Which seats could the GOP flip to keep the House? Which seats could Democrats flip to make a blue wave happen?

Quick summary:

• If Republicans are going to have a chance of maintaining their slim House majority, they will need to make a play for many of the 20 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats on the map. Of these, 12 voted at least narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2024, and some of them — thanks in part to redistricting — backed Trump much more substantially.

• Democrats can look at 19 medium-red seats to potentially flip if the 2026 environment ends up being particularly favorable for them. These districts will not determine if Democrats win a majority, but they could determine whether this midterm ends up being called a “wave” election.

• Editor’s note: This is Part Three of a three-part series. Check out Part One and Part Two to see our previous analysis.

With the March 17 primary now in the books, we can return to examining the overall electoral picture in the 2026 race to control the U.S. House of Representatives. In Part One of this series, we painted in broad strokes by categorizing the chamber’s 435 seats that are very likely to go for one party — which describes most districts — or will potentially be in-play in November. In Part Two, we zoomed in on 26 Republican-held seats that could be highly competitive. That group of districts, along with a cohort of 20 Democratic-held seats, is most likely to play a key role in determining which party wins a majority.

Here in Part 3, we will take a look at the 20 Democratic-held seats that Republicans could target in 2026. We will also examine a group of 19 peripherally competitive Republican-held or fairly-red open seats that Democrats might have a shot at flipping if the 2026 cycle turns into an especially strong year for the out-of-power party.

The Democratic seats the GOP can target

Currently, Democrats are favored to take control of the House. However, if Republicans are going to have a chance of holding onto their slim 220-215 majority,¹ they will need to make a play for many of the 20 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats on the map. Of these, 12 voted at least narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2024, and some of them — thanks in part to redistricting — backed Trump much more substantially.

The most vulnerable incumbent House Democrat is Rep. Don Davis of North Carolina. Last fall, the Republican-dominated legislature redrew Davis’s 1st District in eastern North Carolina, shifting it from a seat that Trump carried by about 2 percentage points to one he would have won by almost 12 points. In 2024, Davis managed to narrowly win reelection over Republican Laurie Buckhout while Trump led in his seat. But now that the seat is this red, Davis will struggle to hold onto it even with a blue-leaning midterm environment. Buckhout won the GOP primary on March 3, so she’s back for another try in a seat that election ratings outlets generally view as Lean Republican.

Redistricting has also increased the peril for two Ohio Democrats, although one faces a much harder reelection path. Rep. Marcy Kaptur first won a House seat in 1982, making her the longest-serving woman in congressional history. But the new Buckeye State map makes her already-red 9th District even redder, taking it from Trump +7 to Trump +11. In 2024, Kaptur won by less than 1 point under the old lines against state Rep. Derek Merrin, so she may be an underdog in an even more unfavorable seat. Still, her opponent won’t be known until Ohio’s May 5 primary. The crowded GOP candidate field includes Merrin again, but he’s not a sure bet to win the nomination.

The other endangered Ohio Democrat is Rep. Greg Landsman, whose Cincinnati-area 1st District shifted about 9 points to the right, from a seat Trump lost by more than 6 points to one he would have carried by roughly 3 points. On our list of 20 vulnerable Democratic-held seats, five districts where the incumbent is seeking reelection became redder under their new lines. Landsman’s district moved farther to the right than any other.

However, of that group, Landsman is seeking reelection in the least Trump-leaning seat. So, while his seat looks highly competitive, he has a decent chance of winning reelection in a favorable environment for Democrats. And helpfully for Landsman, some strong potential Republican candidates stayed out of the race.

In South Texas, Democratic Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar won reelection in 2024 even as Trump carried their majority-Latino districts by 4 points and 7 points, respectively. On paper, though, their districts became even redder when the GOP’s new Texas map made each a Trump +10 seat. Yet Cuellar and Gonzalez might survive in 2026. For one thing, both incumbents ran ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. Cuellar won by about 6 points, 13 points in margin better than Harris, while Gonzalez prevailed by roughly 3 points, 7 points better than Harris. Cuellar’s new seat actually became slightly bluer by its 2024 U.S. House vote, though Gonzalez’s reddened further. Additionally, Democrats are hoping that Latino voters shift somewhat back to the left in 2026, which special election results and national polling suggests is quite possible.

Meanwhile, Maine’s 2nd District ranks as the most endangered Democratic-held seat that did not change due to redistricting. Rep. Jared Golden won the seat for a fourth time in 2024, even as Trump carried it by 9 points. But Golden announced his retirement, opening up the seat. Former Gov. Paul LePage looks favored to win this seat back for Republicans, though Democrats have a contested primary featuring state Auditor Matt Dunlap and state Sen. Joe Baldacci.

Democrats are somewhat favored in the other four seats in this group that leaned at least somewhat to the right of Trump’s 1.5-point national popular vote margin in 2024. In Washington’s 3rd District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez won reelection by about 4 points even as Trump carried her seat by about 3 points. Rep. Tom Suozzi outran the Democratic presidential ticket by more in New York’s 3rd District, winning by roughly 4 points as Trump carried the seat by more than 4 points. Trump also led by about 2 points in both New Mexico’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 8th District, but Democratic Reps. Gabe Vasquez and Kristen McDonald Rivet won by about 4 points and 7 points, respectively.

The other 10 Democratic-held seats that could be in play are longer shots for the GOP. Each seat sat at least slightly to the left of the 2024 national popular vote margin of Trump +1.5, even the two seats that Trump narrowly led in (New Jersey’s 9th District and Nevada’s 3rd District). Historically, it has been very difficult for the president’s party to flip a seat that leaned even a tad toward the other party in the last presidential election. In fact, it’s happened just three times across six midterms in the 21st century — twice in 2014 and once in 2022, when Gluesenkamp Perez won her seat.

Now, that doesn’t mean Republicans won’t closely contest many of these Democratic-held seats. GOP candidates in two of the 10 seats that leaned somewhat left in 2024 — California’s 13th District (Rep. Adam Gray) and New York’s 19th District (Rep. Josh Riley) — are on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s new “MAGA Majority” list of seats that mostly includes seats that the GOP hopes to capture. (The NRCC also included Republican contenders in the seats held by Cuellar, Davis, Golden, Gonzalez, and Suozzi).

Peripherally competitive GOP seats

Democrats are favored to win back the House in 2026. But if they do accomplish that feat, the extent of the Democrats’ majority will depend in part on the inroads they make — or don’t make — into medium-red turf. Below is a list of 19 Trump-won seats that Democrats could potentially flip if the 2026 environment ends up being particularly favorable for them. These seats will not determine if Democrats win a majority — the 26 GOP-held seats covered in Part 2 of this series will do that — but they could determine whether this midterm ends up being called a “wave” election.

To be clear, Republicans remain favored in all of these seats. This is especially true in the 12 seats below the line in the table, all of which leaned at least 10 points to the right of the country in the 2024 presidential election. In midterms from 2006 to 2022, the out party only won 11% of all seats that leaned 10 to 20 points toward the president’s party. That suggests that Democrats could flip a handful of these seats, but that it would be unusual for them to flip many.

Three of the seats that did lean fewer than 10 points to the right in 2024 are in Ohio, but all are currently viewed as solidly Republican. The least red one is the Dayton-area 10th District held by longtime Rep. Mike Turner, who, helpfully for the GOP, is seeking reelection. The other two are the 7th and 15th districts. But to win seats like these, the Democrats will have to overcome a consistent red lean up and down the ballot in these districts. Only one Democrat has carried these three seats in any statewide election in Ohio between 2016 and 2024: then-Sen. Sherrod Brown in his 2018 reelection victory. Admittedly, Brown is running for Senate this year after losing a close race in 2024, which might help the Democratic ticket.

Another three seats are majority-Latino districts in Texas that Trump won by between 10 and 18 points in 2024. However, each may be more competitive than the 2024 numbers would suggest. Looming over each is the possibility that Latino voters swing back toward Democrats to a significant degree.

This is most apparent in the 15th and 35th districts. Texas’s 15th District, held by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, would have backed Trump by 18 points in 2024. However, the seat would only have voted for Trump by about 2 points in 2020, and has backed Democratic candidates in around one-third of statewide elections since 2016. Democrats are also hoping that Tejano musician Bobby Pulido will give them a strong nominee against De La Cruz. Meanwhile, the open 35th District is a vastly redrawn seat that is among the five the GOP hopes to flip on Texas’s new map. But while Trump would have carried it by 10 points in 2024, the seat went just about 50-50 in Texas’s 2018 Senate race, suggesting it could be quite close in a blue-leaning midterm.

Candidate weakness may factor into Texas’s other seat in this group, the Trump +15 23rd District. After being forced into a primary runoff on March 3, scandal-ridden Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales abandoned his reelection campaign. That leaves gun influencer Brandon Herrera as the GOP nominee, pitting him against Democrat Katy Stout. While Herrera is favored, his history of controversial statements and actions could make this a winnable seat for Democrats.

Republicans also have to defend Montana’s 1st District, a Trump +12 seat left open by Rep. Ryan Zinke’s retirement. While red-leaning, this seat does have a sizable Democratic voting base centered mostly around the college towns of Missoula and Bozeman. And while Trump comfortably carried the district in 2024, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester simultaneously won it by about 1 point, even as he lost reelection. Still, Democrats’ chances may have actually been better if Zinke sought reelection: He had faced a number of negative stories in recent years and ran behind Trump in 2024.

Florida is home to three GOP-held seats worth watching, two of which ratings outlets view as not quite solidly Republican. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna holds the Trump +12 13th District around Tampa Bay, while Rep. Cory Mills is defending the slightly redder 7th District between Orlando and Daytona Beach. Mills in particular might have some vulnerability due to scandal. Last year, his ex-girlfriend received a protective order after Mills allegedly threatened her, and he faces an ethics investigation in Congress over alleged campaign finance violations, sexual misconduct, and misuse of his office. Additionally, Rep. Laurel Lee holds a similarly red seat east of Tampa that Democrats hope to contest.

However, the degree to which any of these Republicans incumbents has trouble will also depend on Florida’s possible redistricting. The GOP-led state legislature plans to hold a special session in April, but it’s unclear if it will actually redraw amid the larger national redistricting conflict.

Two other GOP-held seats in Arizona and Tennessee are viewed as “Likely Republican” rather than “Solid Republican” by ratings outlets. In Arizona’s 2nd District, Rep. Eli Crane is a member of the hard-right Freedom Caucus who ran notably behind Trump in 2024, (he won reelection by about 9 points, Trump carried the seat by 15 points). After losing to Crane in 2024, former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez is seeking a rematch in a seat that has an electorate that’s about one-fifth American Indian. Meanwhile, Rep. Andy Ogles has various problems in Tennessee’s 5th District around Nashville, a seat Trump carried by 18 points in 2024. He faces questions over a fake loan to his 2022 campaign, and his combative profile — he recently called for the deportation of all Muslims — has made him a source of consistent controversy.

Lastly, we will note a couple of Republican-held seats in the Carolinas that are both solidly Republican but could come into play. Held by Rep. Chuck Edwards, the 11th District in western North Carolina went for Trump by about 10 points in 2024. But this seat could get interesting in a Democratic-leaning midterm, especially if turnout in the dark-blue Asheville area is disproportionately high. South Carolina’s open 1st District around parts of Charleston is somewhat redder, having voted for Trump by 13 points. That gives it about an R+11.5 lean relative to the country, but that is actually a tad less right-leaning than the R+15 lean of the previous iteration of the 1st District when Democrats flipped it in 2018.

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Republicans have some clear Democratic-held House seats to target in November. The extent to which the GOP can make inroads in those districts will help determine whether the party can manage to retain its slim House majority. Meanwhile, Democrats are dreaming about winning some redder seats that don’t yet look to be in serious danger, but that a blue wave might inundate. Fewer than eight months to go until we see how this election pans out.

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📆 Around the Corner 📌

On DDHQ Votes, make sure to add these upcoming races to your watchlist:

• April 7, 2026

  • GA-14 Special Election Runoff

  • Wisconsin Supreme Court General Election

• April 16, 2026

  • NJ-11 Special Election

• April 21, 2026

  • Virginia redistricting referendum

Check out our 2026 Primary Primer for more information about the regular primaries happening in 2026.

1. This figure includes the House’s three vacancies with the party that previously held the seat.