Trump's approval hits second-term low
The government shutdown has likely played a role in the president's lower numbers
Weekly Spotlight
In the lead-up to the 2025 election, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating dipped to around 43%, in line with the lowest point of his second term in office. It has reached a nadir of 42.6% as of this writing, and his -11.2 net approval rating is also his worst mark since returning to the presidency in January.
The decline in Trump’s approval likely connects at least in part to the government shutdown, which looks set to end today or very shortly. Polls suggested Americans were slightly more likely to blame Trump or congressional Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats, although many respondents chose a “blame both equally” answer if the survey included that as an option.
Looking at what’s driven Trump’s recent drop, his numbers among independents and Democrats have worsened. In fact, his approval among independents (about 32%) is the lowest since he returned to office.
Moreover, Trump’s approval among white respondents has hit a second-term low of 48%, even though Americans who identify as white are more Republican-leaning than those who identify with a minority ethnic or racial group. Similarly, his approval among Black respondents has dropped to 17%, another low.
Despite hitting an overall low point, Trump is still not far from the 45% mark his approval has mostly hovered around during his second term in office. In that sense, the larger political environment has not changed all that much as we begin the march to the 2026 midterm elections.
2026 Elections
Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate
We promised it and can now deliver it: a three-way polling average measuring support in Texas’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate. In early October, Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the contest, shaking up what had been a head-to-head clash between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. In our average, Paxton holds a narrow lead with about 31%, just ahead of Cornyn’s 28% and Hunt’s 21%.
Like many southern states, Texas requires candidates to garner a majority to win a primary, so with all three candidates running well shy of 50%, a runoff between the top-two finishers in the March 3 primary looks quite possible — though that vote is still almost four months away.
Important national averages
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats have gained slightly in generic ballot polling over the past week, with their lead over the GOP rising to about 4 points. However, that’s not too different from where it has been over the past five or so months. In the aftermath of the 2025 election, polls from YouGov/The Economist and Morning Consult did show an uptick in Democratic support compared with pre-election polls, but it remains to be seen if that will be sticky or more ephemeral.
Right Track/Wrong Track
In the weeks before the 2025 election, the share of respondents who felt the country was on the wrong track had decreased somewhat to around 55%. But at the end of October, it jumped back up to around 58%, and it’s right around there now. Conversely, only about 35% feel the country is on the right track.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.
"The government shutdown has likely played a role in the president's lower numbers”.
That is as weak an indictment of anyone in the history of indictments.
Today's poll numbers are tomorrow’s trash, at best a snap shot in time.
But if your job is to lift up the dying carcass of the Dem party and mis-inform the young minority portion of the Dem party to excite them into further support of a political party on its last legs, then you have succeeded. Well done and the Republicans thank you.
not me. I think you’ve not a clue what you're doing