❓What happened last night: Massie loses to Trump-backed challenger
Primary runoffs abound in Georgia and Alabama
President Trump is having a great May, at least when it comes to asserting his political control over the Republican Party. His endorsed primary challengers won five of seven state Senate contests in Indiana on May 5. Then Sen. Bill Cassidy lost in Louisiana’s May 16 Republican primary. And last night, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie lost to Trump-endorsed primary challenger Ed Gallrein.
Next Tuesday, it looks like it may be Sen. John Cornyn’s turn in Texas after Trump endorsed his primary opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Let’s look at what happened to Massie and in other primaries on May 19.
Kentucky
The biggest race of the night was Rep. Thomas Massie’s matchup against former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, who had Trump’s endorsement. In the end, Gallrein won by about 10 points, 55%-45%. Massie looked to be in trouble when the suburban counties next door to Cincinnati — Boone, Kenton, and Campbell — remained in Gallrein’s hands. In the end, Massie only carried his home base of Lewis County and little Mason County next door.
Meanwhile, Trump also got his man in Kentucky’s GOP primary for U.S. Senate. Rep. Andy Barr trounced former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron 60%-31%. Barr will is now all but assured a place in the Senate from red Kentucky. In November, he will meet 2022 Senate nominee Charles Booker, who defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath in Kentucky’s Democratic primary. (Unlike Georgia and Alabama, which we discuss below, there are no primary runoffs in Kentucky.)
The one competitive federal race in Kentucky this year might be the 6th District, which Barr left open to run for Senate. On the Republican side, Trump-endorsed former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado won 57%-26%. He will face former federal prosecutor Zach Dembo, who defeated former state Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson 40%-31% in the Democratic primary.
Georgia
Georgia’s marquee GOP primary for Senate produced a runoff, as no candidate won a majority of the primary vote. As expected, Rep. Mike Collins finished in first, garnering 40% of the vote. But it was Derek Dooley, the former football coach and ally of Gov. Brian Kemp, who finished second with 30% to advance to the second round of voting. Rep. Buddy Carter finished in third with 25%. The winner of the Collins-Dooley runoff on June 16 will face Sen. Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic senator seeking reelection in a state that Trump carried in 2024.
Dooley’s stronger showing in the more populous Atlanta metro was enough to overcome Carter’s sterling performance in his coastal Georgia congressional district. But looking ahead, it’s easy to imagine Trump endorsing Collins to take down Kemp’s choice. After all, there is little love lost between Trump and Kemp. The other challenge for Dooley is that, like Collins, Carter tried to position himself as a clear MAGA-aligned choice. As a result, Carter voters may be more likely to move into Collins’s column than Dooley’s in the second round. Either way, Collins is the favorite heading into the runoff.
It is less certain who might be called the favorite in the impending GOP runoff in Georgia’s race for governor. Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones finished first with 38%, followed by healthcare executive Rick Jackson’s 33%, setting up a runoff between two more MAGA-aligned candidates. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger came in third with 15% and Attorney General Chris Carr was next with 12%.
But while Jones is Trump’s choice, Jackson might be able to win a runoff. Both Raffensperger and Carr had attracted Trump’s ire over their defense of Georgia’s 2020 election results, which put them on the back foot in this contest. But they won about a quarter of the vote combined. Jackson, who is running as an outsider businessman, might prove more appealing to these voters than Trump’s endorsed candidate. Jackson has also made efforts to keep the president from becoming hugely involved in helping Jones.
The winner of the GOP runoff will face the Democratic nominee, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. The only question coming into the Democratic primary for governor was whether Bottoms could clear 50% and avoid a runoff. She did just that, winning 56% of the vote, with former state Sen. Jason Esteves in a distant second with 19%.
Still, the pattern of results showed a potential warning sign for Bottoms: Two of her lowest-performing counties were DeKalb (43%) and Fulton (48%), which are home to the city of Atlanta that she once led. Bottoms had a rocky tenure as mayor and did not seek reelection. Now, this does come with the caveat that Esteves also hails the Atlanta metro area and performed best there, so Bottoms’s local weakness was not necessarily all down to voters more familiar with her being less likely to back her.
There were a couple of interesting U.S. House primaries in open seats. In the solidly Republican 11th District, physician John Cowan finished first in the GOP primary with 43%, advancing to a runoff against Rob Adkerson, an aide to retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk who garnered 22%. Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore finished third with 19%, missing the runoff. And in the dark-blue 13th District, state Rep. Jasmine Clark won the Democratic primary with 56%. This seat is vacant following the death of Rep. David Scott, who was seeking reelection (his remained on the ballot but votes for him were not counted).
Lastly, Georgia had two general elections for state Supreme Court that drew notice. While officially nonpartisan, Democrats had reason to believe that their preferred candidates — attorney Miracle Rankin and former state Sen. Jen Jordan — could win, aided in part by higher Democratic turnout in the primary. But Republicans came out on top, as the two GOP-aligned incumbents — Justices Sarah Hawkins Warren and Justice Charlie Bethel — won reelection despite more voters participating in the Democratic primary.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, the main focus was on two U.S. House races with competitive Democratic primaries. In the dark-blue 3rd District based in Philadelphia, progressive state Rep. Chris Rabb won the Democratic primary with 44%. He defeated two establishment-flavored candidates — state Sen. Sharif Street (29%) and pediatric surgeon Ala Stanford (24%) — and is now the prohibitive favorite to succeed the retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (who endorsed Stanford).
The other notable primary came in the swingy 7th District in the Lehigh Valley. Four Democrats battled for the right to take on freshman Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie. Bob Brooks, leader of the state’s main firemen’s union, won with 42%. He had the support of a wide range of Democratic and progressive leaders groups or leaders, including the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Gov. Josh Shapiro, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The primaries made official the matchups in Pennsylvania four highly competitive, Republican-held U.S. House seats. None of the other nomination races were competitive (some candidates were unopposed). Looking ahead, this quartet will help determine whether the GOP can hold onto the House or if the still-favored Democrats can flip the chamber.
Alabama
The one big race in Alabama was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, a contest for a seat left open by Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s gubernatorial campaign (he easily won the GOP nomination for governor). No candidate surpassed 50%, which means a runoff will occur on June 16. Leading the way was Rep. Barry Moore, the Trump-backed contender, who garnered 39%. Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson just held off state Attorney General Steve Marshall, 26%-25% for second place. Moore will be favored in the June 16 runoff.
Oregon
In Oregon, Republicans are hoping to give unpopular Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek a serious challenge in her reelection bid. In the GOP primary, voters opted for a rematch by handing the nomination to state Sen. Christine Drazan, who lost to Kotek in 2022 by about 3 points, 47%-44%. Drazan led with 42%, followed by state Rep. Ed Diehl with 33%. Former NBA player Chris Dudley, who lost Oregon’s 2010 gubernatorial race, finished in third with 16%.
Though he lost, Diehl had gained notice by helping lead opposition to a series of new transportation taxes. This effort had resulted in a veto referendum to block the legislation, which was also on the ballot on May 19. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the new taxes, voting 83%-17% against them in the referendum.
I just you folks to know, you're live results feed for KY-04 was reporting erroneous "% reporting" data ALL NIGHT LONG!!! Anybody who was stupid enough to TRUST the numbers as they navigated markets like turnout, got SCREWED!! Wasn't just late data. I'm fairly certain your A.I. was HALLUCINATION at one point. Three examples:
1. At one point, you had Boone County at 19,909 votes, but only 86% reporting. In REALITY, that was 100% reported.
2. Toward the end of the night, you had total votes at 104k-ish and 84% reported. When, in reality, that was 96% reported.
3. Your A.I. decided Trimble County...small, I know...had reported votes. Like 20ish%. In reality, they hadn't reported anything.
Long story short, I never imagined you folks couldn't do something as simple as just REPORT RESULTS accurately! So I trusted your equipment. And as I set my projections, and hastened to cover my 100k threshold positions...because I thought, through YOUR DATA, that we were headed toward 120K turnout...I lost my ass. Thousands of bucks.
Anyway, this is the long way around to warn other people: Use setup is faulty. Sometimes catastrophically so. You're always displaying prediction market info on your site, so you must like them. Well, your faulty data absolutely screwed me. Fix your shit!