❓What happened last night: Trump asserts dominance in Indiana
Indiana Republicans ousted most anti-redistricting state senators, while Ohio voters picked their nominees in key races
President Donald Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party was confirmed once again on Tuesday night. Despite a declining approval rating and an unpopular war, GOP primary voters mostly followed his lead in the most high-profile races on the ballot on Tuesday. This was most clear in a series of primary elections involving incumbent Indiana state senators who helped foil a Trump-backed congressional redistricting plan last year. Here’s what happened in primaries in Indiana and Ohio, plus an important state legislative special election in Michigan.
Indiana: Cross the boss at your own peril
Last December, the Indiana state Senate rejected a congressional remap that could have given Republicans all nine of the state’s U.S. House seats. A majority of Senate Republicans voted against the plan, despite pressure from Trump and leading Indiana Republicans like Sen. Jim Banks, Gov. Mike Braun, and Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith.
Of the 21 GOP senators who voted against redistricting, 10 held seats up in 2026. Of those, eight sought reelection. Trump endorsed primary challengers against seven of the incumbents, while the other seat featured a challenger who had support from Braun and Beckwith. A deluge of campaign advertising followed, to the tune of around $13.5 million in ads, according to AdImpact, a majority from pro-redistricting forces.
The results proved once again that GOP politicians cross Boss Trump at their own peril. All told, six of the eight incumbents lost, each by a double-digit margin. Only one won renomination. The last incumbent’s future hangs in the balance: state Sen. Spencer Deery leads by three votes — three — in a race that is too close to call as of 2 a.m. on Wednesday morning, May 6.
The lone surefire winner, state Sen. Greg Goode, won by 17 percentage points, albeit in a three-way race in which he only garnered about 54% of the vote. One potential factor in Goode’s win is his relationship with U.S. Sen. Todd Young, for whom Goode serves as state political director. Additionally, only Goode and one other senator had more than one primary opponent — in Goode’s case, both had the same last name — which made it harder to consolidate anti-incumbent opposition. Still, the other incumbent — state Sen. Dan Dernulc — lost by a whopping 54 points, so having multiple foes only gets you so far.
Tonight’s result could lead Indiana to pursue congressional redistricting ahead of the 2028 election. Between incumbent retirements and defeats, turnover in the Republican state Senate caucus will potentially give the caucus around 25 pro-redistricting senators out of 40 (or slightly fewer if Democrats flip some GOP-held competitive seats). This would reverse the caucus’s 21-19 anti-redistricting majority in the December redistricting vote.
The turnover could also lead to the ouster of state Senate President Pro Tempore Rod Bray, who led opposition to the remap. Trump targeted much of his redistricting wrath at Bray, who — fortunately for him — wasn’t up for election again until 2028. So, when thinking about the 2028 redistricting battles to come, definitely add Indiana to the list.
Elsewhere in Indiana, every incumbent U.S. House member won renomination, although some won with less-than-convincing performances. The most surprising result came in the 6th Congressional District, where Republican Rep. Jefferson Shreve only defeated education author Sarah Janisse Brown 53%-47%. Brown only raised $22,000 for her challenge, but produced a pretty close outcome.
Three other House incumbents won around 60% in their primaries — a threshold that can indicate potential future weakness. In the 4th Congressional District, Republican Rep. Jim Baird defeated state Rep. Craig Haggard 61%-31% despite last-minute outside spending against Baird over his support for immigration reform legislation. In the 5th Congressional District, idiosyncratic GOP Rep. Victoria Spartz only beat a minor opponent 60%-40% even though he filed no reports with the FEC (only required if you raise more than $5,000). And in the 7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. André Carson fended off three primary opponents with 62% of the vote.
Only one Indiana seat, the 1st Congressional District held by Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan, could be competitive in the fall. There, Porter County Commissioner Barb Regnitz won the GOP primary 46%-30% for the right to face Mrvan in a seat that Trump only narrowly lost in 2024. If Indiana does redistrict after the 2026 election, Mrvan and Carson could be looking at their last electoral victories this November.
Ohio: Few surprises
Though it lacked the same suspense as Indiana, Ohio had an even busier primary slate. In the top-tier statewide races, the primaries formalized the long-expected general election matchups. In the U.S. Senate race, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted will face former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who easily won the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, in the race for governor, 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy comfortably claimed the GOP nomination, setting up a general election race against Democrat Amy Acton.
Ohio had a number of U.S. House primaries of interest. In the 9th Congressional District, Republicans picked former state Rep. Derek Merrin to face vulnerable Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Merrin narrowly lost to Kaptur in 2024, but Merrin will get another shot after winning with 44% to edge out state Rep. Josh Williams (26%) and former Deputy Director of ICE Madison Sheahan (20%).
Although the 9th District is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans, Trump did not endorse in this race. Under Ohio’s new congressional lines, voters would have backed Trump by about 11 points in 2024, up from 7 points under the old lines. Kaptur will need help from a blue-leaning midterm environment, and then some, to keep surviving in this seat.
But Trump did endorse in the competitive 1st Congressional District around Cincinnati. Trump’s choice, Air Force veteran and former CIA official Eric Conroy, easily won the GOP primary and will meet Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in the fall.
Both parties have ambitions to compete in some other “reach” seats. In the light-blue 13th Congressional District, radio host Carey Coleman won the Republican primary 47%-18% to take on Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. In the GOP-leaning 15th Congressional District, Ohio State professor Don Leonard won in something of an upset over former state Rep. Adam Miller, 53%-47%. Leonard will face Republican Rep. Mike Carey in November.
Lastly, Republicans had a crowded, difficult-to-predict primary for state supreme court, with the winner in line to meet Associate Justice Jennifer Brunner — the only statewide-elected Democrat left in Ohio. In the end, former federal immigration judge Colleen O’Donnell narrowly beat state appellate Judge Andrew King, 32%-30%, to win the GOP nomination.
Elsewhere
A special election in the 35th District of Michigan’s state Senate stood ready to affect control of the chamber. Heading into the election, Democrats held a 19-18 majority from the 37 occupied seats in the state Senate. But the chamber has 38 members when at full capacity, so a GOP win would have produced a 19-19 tie. However, Democrat Chedrick Greene easily defeated Republican Jason Tunney, 59%-39%, giving the Democrats a 20-18 majority.
Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer took 238 days to schedule a special election in this seat following then-state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet’s 2024 victory in the 8th Congressional District race. And the importance of this seat to the legislative math is undoubtedly why Whitmer delayed action for as long as she could.