❓What happened last night: Talarico vs. who in Texas’s Senate race?
A review of the big results from the March 3 primary
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Primary season kicked off with a bang on March 3. As the year progresses, we will offer a rundown of notable results after major primary elections. Here’s what happened last night. (Data is as of 4 a.m. Eastern on March 4, 2026).
Marquee races
In Texas’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, it turned out reports of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn’s political demise had been at least somewhat exaggerated. With 93% of the expected vote reporting, Cornyn holds a tiny 42%-41% lead over state Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two candidates now advance to a May 26 runoff, which means there will be nearly three more months of campaigning ahead. That will surely include millions of dollars in advertising from Cornyn and his allies aimed at Paxton.
The big question is, will President Donald Trump endorse now that the runoff is set? Asked just before the primary if he knew who he would endorse, Trump said “pretty much, yeah,” but did not reveal his preferred candidate. One tea leaf: Trump senior adviser Chris LaCivita issued a veiled warning about the impending runoff to Paxton and Jeff Roe, the founder of Axiom Strategies, which is running Paxton’s campaign. That might suggest an opening for a Cornyn endorsement, which would thrill D.C. Republicans desperate to avoid Paxton.
Paxton still starts out as at least a slight favorite in the runoff, even with all the money Cornyn will have behind him. Texas runoffs have tended to favor more conservative candidates, such as the 2012 GOP Senate race that saw now-Sen. Ted Cruz handily dispatch then-Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst 57%-43%. And fact is, Cornyn is an incumbent who won about 42% in his own party’s primary — fundamentally a weak performance, even if it went somewhat better than expected for him.
While the Republican race will continue, Democrats look to have their nominee. A little after 2 a.m. Eastern, DDHQ projected that state Rep. James Talarico will defeat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary for Senate. With 90% of the expected vote reporting, Talarico leads 53%-46%.
Talarico can now start his general election campaign. But while he has clearly energized many Democratic voters, Talarico remains an underdog in a state that Trump carried by almost 14 percentage points.
Tough night for other incumbents
Cornyn was far from the only incumbent member of Congress potentially on the ropes last night. As of 4 a.m. Eastern, one incumbent has lost renomination, four look to be headed to primary runoffs they could lose, and just one looks to have potentially won in an unprojected race.
Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw will forever be the answer to the extremely niche trivia question that only I will ever ask: “Who was the first member of Congress to lose renomination in the 2026 election cycle?” In Texas’s 2nd District, Crenshaw faced a challenge from the right by state Rep. Toth, who leads the incumbent by 16 points, 56%-40%, with 88% of the expected vote reporting.
Four other incumbents are either projected to go to a runoff or look to be on course for that outcome:
Texas’s 23rd District (projected): Although under a cloud of scandal, Rep. Tony Gonzales avoided defeat — for now at least. But with most of the expected vote reporting, gun influencer Brandon Herrera leads Gonzales 43%-42%. Herrera looks like he could get the better of Gonzales after the incumbent narrowly fended off Herrera in 2024.
Texas’s 33rd District (projected): Rep. Julie Johnson and former Rep. Colin Allred are headed to a runoff. With around 80% of the expected vote reporting, Allred leads 45%-34% in a race between a current member (Johnson) and her predecessor on the same turf (Allred).
Texas’s 18th District (unprojected): We do not have a projection yet in the incumbent-versus-incumbent Democratic primary between Reps. Al Green and Christian Menefee. But with most of the expected vote reporting, both candidates are under 50%, with Menefee ahead just 46%-45%.
The other House incumbent does look to have a shot at winning outright in the primary. While we don’t yet have a projection in North Carolina’s 4th District, Rep. Valerie Foushee leads Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam 49%-48% with most of the expected vote reporting. Unlike Texas, where a majority is required to avoid a runoff, North Carolina’s threshold is only 30%,
Beyond Congress, a couple of notable incumbents have lost or could lose renomination. First, in Texas’s GOP primary for Agriculture Commissioner, incumbent Sid Miller lost to challenger Nate Sheets. With 88% of the expected vote in, Sheets leads 53%-47%.
Meanwhile, North Carolina state Senate President Phil Berger has not lost yet, but his race stands all-too-metaphorically on a knife’s edge: He trails Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page by two votes in the 26th State Senate District GOP primary. Provisional ballots still need to be counted, so it’s anyone’s guess who will end up on top. But Gerry Cohen, a member of the Wake County election board, noted an unusual provision in North Carolina’s electoral law could come into play here that he’s not sure has ever been triggered. If a race in a district that includes more than one county (the 26th has two) is tied after the full canvass of returns, no recount occurs and an automatic second primary occurs. Who says your vote doesn’t count?
Other notable races
A handful of other races had notable results. We’ll quickly run through them.
Republican primaries to face an endangered Democratic incumbent:
North Carolina’s 1st District: Former Trump administration official Laurie Buckhout won the GOP nomination race to face Democratic Rep. Don Davis in a redrawn seat that Trump would have carried by close to 12 points. Buckhout narrowly lost to Davis in 2024 in this seat under the old lines.
Texas’s 34th District: In the Battle of Floreses, former federal prosecutor Eric Flores comfortably defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores in the Republican primary for this South Texas seat, 57%-26%. Eric Flores will now face Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a Trump +10 seat.
Additional open seats of note:
Texas’s 35th District: The Republican primary for this redrawn seat, which Trump would have also carried by around 10 points, is headed to a runoff between state Rep. John Lujan and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz. Democrats are also advancing to a runoff between systems therapist Maureen Galindo and Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia.
Texas Attorney General: State Rep. Mayes Middleton and Rep. Chip Roy are headed to a runoff in the GOP nomination race to succeed Ken Paxton.
In Arkansas, which also voted Tuesday, Democrats easily flipped a state House seat just north of Little Rock. The vacant formerly Republican-held seat, which former Vice President Kamala Harris very narrowly carried in 2024, swung quite sharply to the left. Democrat Alex Holladay defeated Republican Bryan Renshaw, 69%-31%.
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OK, it’s bed time. But make sure to check out all the results on Votes, DDHQ’s new election data portal. You can see maps, prediction market odds, and tons of other information about contests both big and small.