What Trump’s approval could mean for 2026
Historically, a president with an approval rating in the low 40s around a midterm election has seen his party lose roughly 30 House seats
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Weekly Spotlight
As of this morning, President Donald Trump’s approval rating stood at about 43%, compared with about a 54% disapproval rating. Opinions of Trump have been relatively steady over the years, such that his approval numbers usually move within a fairly narrow range. But notably, Trump’s roughly -11 net approval is on the lower end of his second term across Decision Desk HQ’s polling average over the past year.
Trump’s approval will play a role in how the upcoming midterm elections play out. The president’s party usually suffers a “midterm penalty” by losing seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, the one “national” election in a midterm (only around one-third of the 100 seats in the Senate is up). But the magnitude of that penalty usually aligns with a president’s approval rating. A very poor rating corresponds with bigger losses, while a high rating tends to bring with it fewer defeats or even some gains.
In light of this, Trump’s approval rating should concern the GOP. Based on midterm approval and election data since 1946, Trump’s 43% approval rating would be in line with about a 33-seat loss for the GOP. Naturally, we don’t know where his approval will be come November, but given his ratings’ long-term pattern, a sizable uptick does not seem especially likely.
With that being said, such gains would require Democrats to win a fair number of seats that Trump carried more than 10 percentage points in 2024. Is Trump’s standing bad enough to produce such results? Perhaps in a handful of cases. But with sharp political polarization and complications from the ongoing national redistricting battle, a seat-by-seat analysis suggests Democrats would be unlikely to gain 30+ seats.
Still, Trump’s approval is low enough that a Democratic takeover appears more likely than not. For instance, prediction markets give Democrats around a 3 in 4 chance of recapturing the House.
Important national averages
Generic Ballot
As has been the case for the past six or so months, Democrats hold a lead in Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot polling average. That advantage stands a little above 4 percentage points, with Democrats polling a bit below 44% and Republicans hovering above 39%.
Now, the two parties’ percentages only add up to 83%, which suggests a fair number of voters are undecided at this point. As we get closer to November, though, more voters will tune in and have an opinion than currently do. Additionally, more pollsters will survey attitudes among likely midterm voters, which will leave fewer undecided voters in the mix and move the two parties’ total closer to 100%.
Right Track/Wrong Track
Per our polling average, 38% of respondents think the country is on the right track, while about 54% believe it’s on the wrong track. Somewhat like Trump’s approval rating, this measure has remained relatively steady over the past year outside of some occasional larger oscillations. Nonetheless, the share who say the country is on the wrong track has declined from a high of 60% in November, which is at least an improving trend for the party in power.
2026 Elections
Texas GOP primary for U.S. Senate
We are looking forward to expanding our offering of primary and general election polling averages in the next few weeks as pollsters start to ask more questions about the 2026 midterms.
But for now, we only have an average for the March 3 GOP primary in Texas’s U.S. Senate race. There, we have not seen a new poll since December, so this race has not moved at all. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a small edge over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn — about 35% to 32% — with Rep. Wesley Hunt running in third. With no candidate running close to 50%, a primary runoff in May looks quite probable.
To see all Decision Desk HQ Polling Averages, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.